Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?
10%chance▲ 2
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Which Senators will vote for Heidi Overton? (Before 2028)
The odds
71%Rand Paul
- Rand Paul71%
- Thom Tillis47%
- Mitch McConnell39%
- Susan Collins31%
- Bill Cassidy23%
- Lisa Murkowski21%
- John Fetterman21%
- Tim Kaine11%▲ 1
- Maggie Hassan11%▲ 1
- Ruben Gallego11%▲ 1
How the odds have moved
Rand Paul: 71% on Oct 20, 71% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rand Paul | 71% | 66¢ | 75¢ | $1.33 | ||
| Thom Tillis | 47% | 43¢ | 51¢ | $1.96 | 885 | |
| Mitch McConnell | 39% | 35¢ | 43¢ | $2.33 | 1.5K | |
| Susan Collins | 31% | 26¢ | 35¢ | $2.86 | ||
| Bill Cassidy | 23% | 18¢ | 27¢ | $3.70 | 768 | |
| Lisa Murkowski | 21% | 16¢ | 25¢ | $4.00 | ||
| John Fetterman | 21% | 16¢ | 25¢ | $4.00 | ||
| Tim Kaine | 11% | ▲ 1 | 7¢ | 15¢ | $6.67 | |
| Maggie Hassan | 11% | ▲ 1 | 7¢ | 15¢ | $6.67 | |
| Ruben Gallego | 11% | ▲ 1 | 7¢ | 15¢ | $6.67 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Heidi Overton, Senators, Rand Paul
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Sen. Thom Tillis, Attorney General Todd Blanche and Gina Hinojosa set to appear on "Face the Nation"Sunday's "Face the Nation" is set to feature Republican Sen. Thom Tillis of North Carolina, Attorney General Todd Blanche and Texas Democratic gubernatorial nominee Gina Hinojosa. CBS News chief foreign affairs correspondent and "Face the… -
Sen. Thom Tillis talks about the challenges of being in Congress during Trump's second termCNN Sen. Thom Tillis talks about the challenges of being in Congress during Trump’s second term In his new book, "How to Lose Friends and Antagonize Presidents," GOP Sen. Thom Tillis calls voting to confirm Pete Hegseth as Secretary of… -
Sen. Rand Paul says DHS, ICE must "restore trust" after Minneapolis shootings of Good, PrettiFebruary 1, 2026 / 7:00 PM EST / CBS News Scott Pelley: Should Secretary Noem be fired? Sen. Rand Paul: I think we have to get through our hearing February 12th, and I think we have to see what the people who work for her say. But my… -
Why Sen. Rand Paul feels like GOP ‘whipping boy’The Kentucky Senator sounds off about the Trump administration’s failure to uphold its foreign policy and Epstein revelation promises. 10/24/2025 12:00 AM EDT Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) is known for being a firebrand when it comes to his… -
Thom Tillis Is Reminding People Why He Doesn't Deserve Another Term As a US SenatorThe crybaby caucus is loud and, blessedly, will be silenced, as Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) and John Cornyn (R-TX) will not return next year. Both men have become insufferable. They’re not MAGA enough, so they ingratiate themselves with… -
Rand Paul broke with his own party on border security funding. Then his party broke with him.The Kentucky senator has found himself cut out of negotiations over his own committee's portion of the GOP megabill. Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) departs a Senate vote at the U.S. Capitol, May 9, 2022. | Francis Chung/POLITICO 06/20/2025 4:45 AM… - Rand Paul plans Patriot Act filibuster in SenateMay 12, 2015 | by NCC Staff Senator Rand Paul and a few colleagues will try to block an extension of the controversial Patriot Act provisions using a filibuster, Paul confirmed Monday in an interview. Paul, a Republican from Kentucky, told…
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Retiring Republican Thom Tillis claims three senior officials are undermining Trump’s agenda and must be sacked to save the partySenator Thom Tillis is making waves again as he publicly calls for the termination of three high-ranking officials within the current administration. The Republican from North Carolina appeared on an episode of the talk show Straight… -
Why Sen. Thom Tillis wishes he voted against confirming Pete Hegseth | CNN PoliticsExpectations for the Democratic party in the November election are so high that one could envision a fair amount of disappointment in the party — and celebration among Republicans — if Democrats don’t shoot the moon on Election Day and… -
Sen. Thom Tillis on his proudest moment in the Senate | CNN PoliticsCNN's Jake Tapper talks with Republican Sen. Thom Tillis about his greatest accomplishment while in the Senate, as he prepares to leave at the end of his term. This is part of an ongoing series where Jake Tapper joins politicians from both… -
Sen. Thom Tillis: ‘I hate bullies’ | CNN PoliticsCNN’s Jake Tapper visits Tennessee, where Republican Sen. Thom Tillis went to high school, to talk about his early life and what shaped him as a man and politician. This is part of an ongoing series where Jake Tapper joins politicians from… -
Thom Tillis’ Resentment on DisplayThe post Thom Tillis’ Resentment on Display appeared first on The Mike Gallagher Show. Salem News Channel | Today The Gallagher's Heroes: Fallen Officer Fund was founded to meet the immediate needs of U.S. police officer families when an…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions