Alaska Governor election: Bernadette Wilson vote percent (1st Round)
28.65%median
14%34%
Median 28.65%Middle half 26.29% – 31.08%
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AR-02 House election: French Hill vote percent
The odds
53.09%median
46%64%
Median 53.09%Middle half 50.65% – 55.53%
How the odds have moved
Median: 52.57% on Oct 19, 53.09% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 48% | 94% | ▲ 1 | 89¢ | 98¢ | $1.02 | |
| At least 50% | 81% | ▲ 1 | 77¢ | 85¢ | $1.18 | 100 |
| At least 52% | 63% | ▲ 1 | 58¢ | 67¢ | $1.49 | 600 |
| At least 54% | 40% | ▲ 1 | 35¢ | 44¢ | $2.27 | 600 |
| At least 56% | 21% | ▲ 1 | 16¢ | 25¢ | $4.00 | 400 |
| At least 58% | 9% | ▲ 1 | 4¢ | 13¢ | $7.69 | |
| At least 60% | 4% | 7¢ | $14.29 | |||
| At least 62% | 3% | 5¢ | $20.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: AR- House, French Hill
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GOP Rep. French Hill talks about rising diesel prices and the impacts of the Iran war in ArkansasCNN GOP Rep. French Hill talks about rising diesel prices and the impacts of the Iran war in Arkansas Representative French Hill talks about rising diesel prices and surrounding economic issues -
Democrats split over House-passed community banking packageRep. Bill Foster and other House Financial Services Committee Democrats broke with panel ranking member Maxine Waters in supporting the community banking package.Alex Brandon/AP The House passed legislation Tuesday aimed at easing… -
Dem underdog Chris Jones builds momentum in Arkansas House raceCNN Dem underdog Chris Jones builds momentum in Arkansas House race Incumbent Republican Congressman French Hill is in a close Arkansas House race with Democratic hopeful Chris Jones. Jones aims to be first Black lawmaker from Arkansas in… -
Arkansas has never elected a Black member of Congress. Chris Jones could change thatThe physicist, nonprofit executive and former gubernatorial nominee is running a competitive campaign against Republican Rep. French Hill. As Election Day nears, Black history is within reach in a very competitive U.S. House race in… -
Goodlander and Tang Williams share views on range of topicsNASHUA – With Election Day drawing closer, Congresswoman Maggie Goodlander (D-NH) and Republican challenger Lily Tang Williams continued their 2024 rematch, going before the Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce on Oct. 19. During the first… -
Arkansas Advocate: U.S. Rep. French Hill seeks classified briefing on Trump waiving Russia sanctionsU.S. Rep. French Hill said Saturday, October 17, 2026 he’s seeking a classified briefing to explain President Donald Trump’s decision to waive sanctions against Russia days before they were to take effect. The Republican congressman from… -
In Arkansas’ 2nd District race, Chris Jones outraises French Hill in July-September quarterThe Arkansas Democrat-Gazette In Arkansas’ 2nd District race, Chris Jones outraises French Hill in July-September quarter -
Real debate is about substance, policy, people, not ‘gotchas’One of the favorite "gotchas" of pseudo-debaters/culture-war gnats (they're not warriors, and are mostly annoying) is to demand the definition of a woman (this happens more often if the "debaters" are male). And speaking of uteruses, what… -
What Arkansans said on the first day of early voting for the midterm electionPolls across Arkansas opened for early voting Monday, with thousands of people expected to cast their ballots before Election Day next month. Voters will decide whether to grant Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders, U.S. Sen. Tom Cotton and the… -
What Arkansans said on the first day of early votingPublished 5:54 am Wednesday, October 21, 2026 By Ainsley Platt, Tess Vrbin and Angie Ramirez/Arkansas Advocate Polls across Arkansas opened for early voting Monday, with thousands of people expected to cast their ballots before Election… -
Arkansas US Rep. French Hill seeks classified briefing on Trump waiving Russia sanctionsU.S. Rep. French Hill said Saturday he’s seeking a classified briefing to explain President Donald Trump’s decision to waive sanctions against Russia days before they were to take effect. The Republican congressman from central Arkansas’… -
Something is afoot in rural, red AmericaSince President Donald Trump’s rise, rural America has broadly shifted to the right, with ancestral Democrats abandoning the party and registering as Republicans. But in 2026, as Trump’s policies have taken a hacksaw to rural communities…
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Alaska Governor election: Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins vote percent (1st Round)
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Montana Senate election: Alani Bankhead vote percent
13.88%median
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Montana Senate election: Kurt Alme vote percent
45.43%median
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Median 45.43%Middle half 42.33% – 48.36%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions