Alaska Governor election: Bernadette Wilson vote percent (1st Round)
28.68%median
14%34%
Median 28.68%Middle half 26.33% – 31.08%
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Alaska Governor election: Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins vote percent (1st Round)
The odds
44.51%median
36%56%
Median 44.51%Middle half 41.5% – 47.09%
How the odds have moved
Median: 47.51% on Oct 20, 44.51% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 38% | 93% | ▲ 1 | 89¢ | 97¢ | $1.03 | 3.1K |
| At least 40% | 86% | ▲ 1 | 81¢ | 90¢ | $1.11 | |
| At least 42% | 72% | ▲ 1 | 67¢ | 76¢ | $1.32 | |
| At least 44% | 56% | ▲ 1 | 51¢ | 60¢ | $1.67 | 800 |
| At least 46% | 34% | ▲ 1 | 31¢ | 37¢ | $2.70 | 562 |
| At least 48% | 18% | ▲ 1 | 14¢ | 21¢ | $4.76 | |
| At least 50% | 10% | 9¢ | 10¢ | $10.00 | 832 | |
| At least 52% | 5% | 3¢ | 7¢ | $14.29 | 1.7K | |
| At least 54% | 3% | 1¢ | 4¢ | $25.00 | 7.9K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Alaska Governor, Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins
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Opinion: Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins is the candidate who takes AI seriouslyArtificial intelligence is advancing much faster than our politics, and the past several weeks should have every candidate for governor paying attention. In mid-September, the heads of the world’s leading AI companies did something… -
Alaska Governor's race heats upGreg Kelly is joined by Republican Alaska Governor candidate Bernadette Wilson, who is squaring off against three others to replace term-limited Governor Mike Dunleavy Around 200 emergency personnel are deployed to fight the blaze at the… -
Getting our house in order: Why we're supporting Jonathan Kreiss-TomkinsFairbanks has never been a community that waits around for someone else to solve its problems. We know that progress takes hard work, practical solutions, and people willing to sit down together, even when they disagree. For Interior… -
Opinion: I’m an independent. JKT is a Democrat. Here’s why we’re running together.I also had instilled in me a deep respect for public service. As a Marine, a volunteer firefighter, an Alaska state trooper and an Anchorage Assembly member, I am proud to have served my country, my state and my community. JKT’s background… -
Gubernatorial candidates make their pitch at the Alaska Federation of Natives conventionThe three gubernatorial candidates who spoke Friday at the Alaska Federation of Natives convention found plenty of common ground on education, fisheries, public safety and other subjects. But some divides emerged in what was, for the most… - Fairbanks has waited 50 years for a gas line. Let’s make sure it actually serves us.On Oct. 12, Golden Valley Electric Association issued an emergency alert, telling thousands of Alaskans across the Interior that the co-op’s reserves had dropped below 15 megawatts. GVEA asked us to turn down the thermostat and prepare for…
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‘Cat and mouse’: House speaker says he’s looking forward to new administrationANCHORAGE, Alaska (KTUU) - Alaska’s House Speaker Bryce Edgmon, NA-Dillingham, struggled to describe the relationship Friday between the majority caucus and the state Legislature. “The last eight years, we have been having to play — I… -
Dunleavy refuses to back a candidate to succeed him, encourages ranking all three RepublicansANCHORAGE, Alaska (KTUU) - Alaska’s Republican governor hasn’t backed a candidate for governor, and walking out of a Wednesday press conference, it doesn’t seem like he will. “We need to vote for all three,” Gov. Mike Dunleavy said… -
Alaska race jolts as Democrat eyes surprise path to governorJonathan Kreiss-Tomkins has built a public image that fits Alaska’s rugged identity. He is known as a mountaineer and extreme runner, the kind of profile that plays well in a state where endurance and self-reliance carry political weight… -
Why Alaska and the Permanent Fund Need Responsible LeadershipI have lived in Alaska for 60 years and been a Republican my entire life. Nearly half my time has been spent in public office representing Alaskans. We are beneficiaries of extraordinary natural resources and wealth, but that bounty comes… -
Alaska judge rules that candidate should be disqualified after failing to disclose financial interestsOct. 23—A state judge ruled Thursday that Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom erred when she allowed a legislative candidate to run for office despite failing to disclose his financial interests as required by law. The ruling could have implications… -
Alaska Family Council backs 41 candidates based on pro-family, pro-life issuesThe Alaska Family Council has just released its list of preferred candidates in the upcoming Nov. 3 general election. In addition to endorsing 39 candidates for the State Legislature, the endorsement urges Alaskans to vote “yes” on Ballot…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions