Alaska Governor election: Bernadette Wilson vote percent (1st Round)
28.65%median
14%34%
Median 28.65%Middle half 26.29% – 31.08%
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Montana Senate election: Kurt Alme vote percent
The odds
45.43%median
30%65%
Median 45.43%Middle half 41.92% – 48.29%
How the odds have moved
Median: 45.77% on Oct 20, 45.43% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 35% | 97% | ▼ 1 | 94¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | 52.00 |
| At least 40% | 87% | ▼ 4 | 82¢ | 91¢ | $1.10 | 5.0K |
| At least 43% | 69% | ▼ 7 | 64¢ | 73¢ | $1.37 | 27.00 |
| At least 45% | 55% | ▼ 5 | 52¢ | 57¢ | $1.75 | 6.3K |
| At least 46% | 44% | ▼ 6 | 40¢ | 48¢ | $2.08 | 422 |
| At least 47% | 35% | ▼ 5 | 31¢ | 39¢ | $2.56 | 5.00 |
| At least 48% | 27% | ▼ 5 | 23¢ | 31¢ | $3.23 | 210 |
| At least 49% | 20% | ▼ 4 | 16¢ | 24¢ | $4.17 | 600 |
| At least 50% | 14% | ▼ 4 | 9¢ | 18¢ | $5.56 | 80.00 |
| At least 55% | 3% | ▼ 1 | 1¢ | 4¢ | $25.00 | 5.00 |
| At least 60% | 3% | 1¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Montana Senate, Kurt Alme
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Buttigieg endorses independent candidate Seth Bodnar over Democratic nominee in Montana Senate raceOctober 23, 2026 / 12:23 PM EDT / CBS News Former U.S. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg has endorsed the independent candidate in the Montana Senate race, Seth Bodnar, over the Democratic nominee, Bodnar's campaign announced Friday… -
Buttigieg endorses independent over Democratic nominee in Montana Senate racePete Buttigieg, the former Transportation Secretary and popular Democratic Party surrogate who has confirmed considering a 2028 presidential bid, is endorsing independent Montana U.S. Senate candidate Seth Bodnar, according to an… -
Buttigieg Endorses Independent in Montana Senate RaceJust dropped · Trial Balloon · Ep. 192 “Pete Buttigieg, the former Transportation Secretary and popular Democratic Party surrogate who has confirmed considering a 2028 presidential bid, is endorsing independent Montana U.S. Senate… - Top Dem Breaks Ranks With Shock Senate EndorsementThe unexpected show of support came with the Republican candidate leading in the polls. Pete Buttigieg has made a shock endorsement in the Montana Senate race. The former transportation secretary, 44, broke ranks with the Democratic Party…
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Shannon O’Brien Deserves Respect for Putting Montana’s Future FirstO’Brien is hardly alone in her assessment that Seth Bodnar is the candidate who represents our values and can beat Kurt Alme The circular Montana Democratic Party firing squad began no sooner than the ink dried on the heartfelt decision by… -
Democrat Sam Forstag outraises Republican Aaron Flint in western US House districtAs the 2026 election cycle nears its close, campaign spending continues to heat up in Montana’s competitive races. Campaign finance filings through Oct. 14 show Democrat Sam Forstag with a lead in both total fundraising and cash on hand… -
How Montana’s federal campaigns are fundedMontana’s federal candidates have arrived at the final stage of the general election largely fueled by individual contributions. National political action committee donations and contributions from congressional leadership committees also… -
Vice President JD Vance to stump for Republicans in Belgrade next weekUnited States Vice President J.D. Vance will visit Belgrade next week to campaign on behalf of Republican candidates for federal office in Montana. Carly Graf has worked for the Montana State News Bureau since 2023. In recent years, the… -
Vice President JD Vance to hold campaign rally in BelgradeHELENA — Vice President JD Vance will be holding a campaign rally in Montana next week – the latest event from national Republican leaders seeking to boost GOP candidates in the state ahead of Election Day. Vance is scheduled to appear… -
Ballot measure looks to shield Montana’s initiative process from government ‘interference’Among the raft of proposals in front of Montana voters this year is a ballot initiative to preserve the ballot initiative process itself. Organizers say “escalating attacks” on the citizen initiative process have made it nearly impossible… -
New attention on Bankhead claim she was offered job to leave Senate race; DNC denies allegationHELENA — Montana’s U.S. Senate race was at the center of political controversy again this week, over an allegation from Democratic nominee Alani Bankhead that she had been offered a job if she would drop out of the race. It’s a statement… -
Bankhead pivots, claims she was offered DNC job to exit Montana’s Senate raceThe Democratic nominee for Montana’s U.S. Senate seat has claimed she was offered a job with the national political party in exchange for dropping out of the race, a major messaging pivot for the candidate who for months has denied…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions