Alaska Governor election: Bernadette Wilson vote percent (1st Round)
28.68%median
14%34%
Median 28.68%Middle half 26.33% – 31.08%
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Montana Senate election: Alani Bankhead vote percent
The odds
13.88%median
7%40%
Median 13.88%Middle half 10.49% – 17.65%
How the odds have moved
Median: 13.61% on Oct 20, 13.88% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 10% | 79% | ▼ 4 | 75¢ | 82¢ | $1.22 | 7.8K |
| At least 13% | 57% | ▼ 1 | 54¢ | 60¢ | $1.67 | 425 |
| At least 14% | 49% | ▼ 1 | 46¢ | 52¢ | $1.92 | 400 |
| At least 15% | 42% | ▲ 1 | 39¢ | 44¢ | $2.27 | 412 |
| At least 17% | 28% | ▲ 1 | 25¢ | 30¢ | $3.33 | 602 |
| At least 20% | 16% | ▲ 1 | 12¢ | 20¢ | $5.00 | 1.6K |
| At least 25% | 6% | 2¢ | 9¢ | $11.11 | 36.00 | |
| At least 30% | 3% | ▲ 1 | 1¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 | 5.00 |
| At least 35% | 3% | 1¢ | 4¢ | $25.00 | 109 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Montana Senate, Alani Bankhead
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Buttigieg endorses independent candidate Seth Bodnar over Democratic nominee in Montana Senate raceOctober 23, 2026 / 12:23 PM EDT / CBS News Former U.S. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg has endorsed the independent candidate in the Montana Senate race, Seth Bodnar, over the Democratic nominee, Bodnar's campaign announced Friday… -
Buttigieg endorses independent over Democratic nominee in Montana Senate racePete Buttigieg, the former Transportation Secretary and popular Democratic Party surrogate who has confirmed considering a 2028 presidential bid, is endorsing independent Montana U.S. Senate candidate Seth Bodnar, according to an… -
Buttigieg Endorses Independent in Montana Senate RaceJust dropped · Trial Balloon · Ep. 192 “Pete Buttigieg, the former Transportation Secretary and popular Democratic Party surrogate who has confirmed considering a 2028 presidential bid, is endorsing independent Montana U.S. Senate… -
WATCH: Montana AG Opens Investigation After DNC Allegedly Offered Democrat Alani Bankhead a Job to Quit Her Senate RaceBankhead claims the DNC offered her a staff position in exchange for quitting and endorsing independent candidate Seth Bodnar. During an appearance on Montana PBS last week, Bankhead was asked whether anyone had offered her anything of… -
Alani Bankhead wants to be ‘the fighter in DC’by Keila Szpaller, Daily Montanan October 20, 2026 Alani Bankhead’s quest to win a U.S. Senate seat as a newcomer to politics doesn’t sound like an impossible task to former Gov. Brian Schweitzer. Schweitzer, a Democrat who won a race for… -
Montana Politics: Please don’t vote for Alani BankheadHere’s a “letter to the editor” I submitted to several Montana newspapers: Let us all remember how Daines and the Republicans gamed the system last spring in order to insert yet another billionaire shill, Kurt Alme, into the Senate race… - Top Dem Breaks Ranks With Shock Senate EndorsementThe unexpected show of support came with the Republican candidate leading in the polls. Pete Buttigieg has made a shock endorsement in the Montana Senate race. The former transportation secretary, 44, broke ranks with the Democratic Party…
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Why I’m Backing Seth Bodnar for MontanaIf voters believe in reproductive freedom, in the dignity of work and in a senator who answers to Montana, vote for Seth Bodnar Alani Bankhead argued in The Washington Post last week that Montana voters should choose their own Senate… -
DNC denies Bankhead claim she was offered job to drop out of Senate raceAlani Bankhead in an interview with PBS. The DNC denied claims that an offer was made to Alani Bankhead for a job in exchange for her dropping out of the U.S. Senate race in Montana. Bankhead made the claim in an interview on Montana PBS… - AG's office raises election law concerns after Bankhead claims she was offered DNC jobAlani Bankhead in an interview with PBS. MONTANA - Montana Attorney General Austin Knudsen raised alarms on social media on Wednesday after Democrat Alani Bankhead said during an interview with PBS that she was offered a job with the DNC…
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Democrat Sam Forstag outraises Republican Aaron Flint in western US House districtAs the 2026 election cycle nears its close, campaign spending continues to heat up in Montana’s competitive races. Campaign finance filings through Oct. 14 show Democrat Sam Forstag with a lead in both total fundraising and cash on hand… -
This Democrat is helping a Republican win a Senate seatSurvey Says is a weekly series rounding up the most important polling trends or data points you need to know about, plus a vibe check on a trend that’s driving politics or culture. In nine days, a Democratic candidate for Senate will…
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All senate ›Alaska Governor election: Dave Bronson vote percent (1st Round)
15.86%median
8%28%
Median 15.86%Middle half 14.14% – 18%
Alaska Governor election: Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins vote percent (1st Round)
44.55%median
36%56%
Median 44.55%Middle half 41.5% – 47.09%
Alaska Governor election: Treg Taylor vote percent (1st Round)
10.75%median
0%16%
Median 10.75%Middle half 8.41% – 13.61%
Montana Senate election: Kurt Alme vote percent
45.43%median
30%65%
Median 45.43%Middle half 41.97% – 48.29%
Montana Senate election: Seth Bodnar vote percent
36.58%median
10%50%
Median 36.58%Middle half 33.62% – 39.57%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions