Brazil Presidential Election
>99%Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva>99%▲ 78
- Flávio Bolsonaro<1%▼ 78
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Brazil presidential runoff: Flávio Bolsonaro vote percent
Settled Between 48% and 49%A day before, traders had a median of 51.85%
The last odds before it closed
—
- ✓ At least 48%99%▲ 2
- At least 49%3%▼ 89
- At least 50%1%▼ 80
- At least 51%1%▼ 67
- At least 52%1%▼ 44
- At least 52.5%1%▼ 31
- At least 53%1%▼ 14
- At least 54%1%▼ 7
- At least 55%1%▼ 3
- At least 56%1%▼ 2
How the odds have moved
At least 48%: 93% on Oct 20, 97% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Last odds | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ✓ At least 48% | 99% | 41.1K | ||||
| ✗ At least 49% | 3% | 26.2K | ||||
| ✗ At least 50% | 1% | 23.2K | ||||
| ✗ At least 51% | 1% | 18.0K | ||||
| ✗ At least 52% | 1% | 31.9K | ||||
| ✗ At least 52.5% | 1% | 2.5K | ||||
| ✗ At least 53% | 1% | 12.4K | ||||
| ✗ At least 54% | 1% | 13.2K | ||||
| ✗ At least 55% | 1% | 9.8K | ||||
| ✗ At least 56% | 1% | 5.8K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Flávio Bolsonaro, Brazil
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Brazil votes in tense presidential runoff between Lula and Flávio BolsonaroOctober 25, 2026 / 3:52 PM EDT / AP Brazilians are voting in Sunday's polarizing presidential runoff between incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro, a contest that will determine whether the U.S. will… -
Lula wins fourth term as Brazil’s president over Flávio BolsonaroLeftist incumbent Lula stages historic comeback weeks after narrowly losing first round of election to Bolsonaro Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the Brazilian president, has staged a dramatic election fightback, defeating his far-right… -
Brazil elections: Voters choosing between Flávio Bolsonaro and Luiz Inácio Lula da SilvaBrazilians are voting to choose their new president in a closely fought run-off election - polls will close at 17:00 local time (20:00 GMT) It is the second round of voting after right-wing senator Flávio Bolsonaro won the first round… -
Brazil runoff live updates: polls set to close as Flávio Bolsonaro narrowly leads Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in race for presidencyThundering to a crowd of thousands of far-right supporters in São Paulo on 7 September, Brazil’s Independence Day, the senator Flávio Bolsonaro focused less on his opponent in the presidential election, the leftist president Luiz Inácio… -
What to know as Brazilians choose between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro on SundayBrazil is on the brink of choosing between left-leaning incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and far-right candidate Flávio Bolsonaro RIO DE JANEIRO — Brazil is on the cusp of granting leftist incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva a fourth… -
Brazil's Lula wins fourth term, defeats pro-Israel Flavio BolsonaroBrazilian President Lula da Silva wins a fourth term, defeating pro-Israel rival Flavio Bolsonaro in a runoff. Brazil's Lula wins fourth term, defeats pro-Israel Flavio Bolsonaro -
Brazil's presidential runoff between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro, in photosBrazilians vote in a closely contested presidential runoff between President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, seeking a fourth term, and Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro, son of former President Jair Bolsonaro. The... Brazilians vote in a closely contested… -
Brazil Bettors Back Flávio Bolsonaro at 83%Bettors give Flávio Bolsonaro an 83% chance in Brazil's Sunday runoff, up from 76.7% on Friday, while Datafolha shows a 50% tie. The post Brazil Bettors Back Flávio Bolsonaro at 83% appeared first on The Rio Times. Brazil Bettors Back… -
The Latest: Brazilians choose between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro in presidential runoffFILE - Brazil President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, right, who is running for reelection, gestures as opposition presidential candidate Sen. Flavio Bolsonaro stands beside him during a televised presidential debate one week before the… -
The Latest: Brazilians voted in a tense runoff as Lula faces Trump ally Flávio BolsonaroFILE - Brazil President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, right, who is running for reelection, gestures as opposition presidential candidate Sen. Flavio Bolsonaro stands beside him during a televised presidential debate one week before the… -
The Latest: Brazilians vote in a tense runoff as Lula faces Trump ally Flávio BolsonaroFILE - Brazil President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, right, who is running for reelection, gestures as opposition presidential candidate Sen. Flavio Bolsonaro stands beside him during a televised presidential debate one week before the… - The Latest: Brazil President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva wins reelection over Flávio BolsonaroFILE - Brazil President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, right, who is running for reelection, gestures as opposition presidential candidate Sen. Flavio Bolsonaro stands beside him during a televised presidential debate one week before the…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions