Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
Outcome
Chance
Day
Bid
Ask
Pays
Contracts
AI / Artificial Intelligence
79%
75¢
83¢
$1.20
Prediction Market
71%
56¢
74¢
$1.35
17.00
Tokenized / Tokenization
65%
▼ 1
61¢
69¢
$1.45
332
Active Trader / Active Trading
63%
34¢
45¢
$2.22
12.00
Crypto / Cryptocurrency
62%
▼ 5
57¢
66¢
$1.52
170
Sport
57%
53¢
61¢
$1.64
Social
55%
42¢
57¢
$1.75
45.00
Retire / Retirement
50%
28¢
46¢
$2.17
20.00
Agent / Agentic
46%
▲ 5
35¢
46¢
$2.17
864
Perp / Perpetual
43%
▲ 1
40¢
46¢
$2.17
31.00
Option
42%
30¢
41¢
$2.44
23.00
Bank / Banking
40%
▼ 8
35¢
44¢
$2.27
35.00
Bitcoin
34%
15¢
26¢
$3.85
42.00
Credit Card
34%
▲ 2
31¢
36¢
$2.78
14.00
Kalshi
11%
7¢
15¢
$6.67
Event does not qualify
5%
1¢
8¢
$12.50
5.00
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: New York Times DealBook Summit, NYT DealBook Summit, Vlad Tenev
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.