What will JD Vance say during his rally in Kansas?

Kalshi Mentions › Politicians Closes Nov 9 · $43.8K today · $50.2K traded · $38K at stake · prices read just now

The odds

100%Democrat
  • Democrat100%▲ 4
  • Election100%▲ 11
  • Biden100%▲ 16
  • Border100%▲ 13
  • Steel100%▲ 55
  • Afford / Affordable / Affordability100%▲ 14
  • Tax on Tips / Tax on Overtime100%▲ 24
  • Manufacture / Manufacturing100%▲ 34
  • Working Class / Middle Class100%▲ 28
  • Social Security100%▲ 42
  • Fraud100%▲ 25
  • Farm / Farmer100%▲ 11
16 more
  • Oil / Gas / Gasoline100%▲ 66
  • American Dream100%▲ 66
  • America First100%▲ 68
  • 2028 / Campaign1%▼ 77
  • Economy / Economic1%▼ 63
  • Illegal Alien1%▼ 69
  • Fertilizer1%▼ 56
  • Inflation1%▼ 55
  • Healthcare1%▼ 61
  • Tariff1%▼ 28
  • Radical Left1%▼ 12
  • China / Chinese1%▼ 23
  • Small Business1%▼ 28
  • AI / Artificial Intelligence1%▼ 13
  • Made in America / American Made1%▼ 13
  • Event does not qualify1%▼ 3

How the odds have moved

Democrat: 86% on Oct 24, 100% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
Democrat 100% ▲ 4 99¢ 1.7K
Election 100% ▲ 11 99¢ 1.5K
Biden 100% ▲ 16 99¢ 1.3K
Border 100% ▲ 13 99¢ 1.5K
Steel 100% ▲ 55 99¢ 3.7K
Afford / Affordable / Affordability 100% ▲ 14 99¢ 2.4K
Tax on Tips / Tax on Overtime 100% ▲ 24 99¢ 6.2K
Manufacture / Manufacturing 100% ▲ 34 99¢ 3.1K
Working Class / Middle Class 100% ▲ 28 99¢ 5.8K
Social Security 100% ▲ 42 99¢ 1.8K
Fraud 100% ▲ 25 99¢ 2.0K
Farm / Farmer 100% ▲ 11 99¢ 2.0K
Oil / Gas / Gasoline 100% ▲ 66 99¢ 4.1K
American Dream 100% ▲ 66 99¢ 5.4K
America First 100% ▲ 68 99¢ 7.0K
2028 / Campaign 1% ▼ 77 1¢ $100.00 9.0K
Economy / Economic 1% ▼ 63 1¢ $100.00 12.7K
Illegal Alien 1% ▼ 69 1¢ $100.00 3.2K
Fertilizer 1% ▼ 56 1¢ $100.00 2.7K
Inflation 1% ▼ 55 1¢ $100.00 5.9K
Healthcare 1% ▼ 61 1¢ $100.00 9.8K
Tariff 1% ▼ 28 1¢ $100.00 5.7K
Radical Left 1% ▼ 12 1¢ $100.00 7.5K
China / Chinese 1% ▼ 23 1¢ $100.00 17.9K
Small Business 1% ▼ 28 1¢ $100.00 4.8K
AI / Artificial Intelligence 1% ▼ 13 1¢ $100.00 20.5K
Made in America / American Made 1% ▼ 13 1¢ $100.00 5.8K
Event does not qualify 1% ▼ 3 1¢ $100.00 2.8K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: JD Vance, Midterm Rally, Kansas

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75%Tax on Tips / Tax on Overtime
  • Tax on Tips / Tax on Overtime75%
  • Border73%
  • Oil / Gas / Gasoline70%
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  • Biden69%
  • Working Class / Middle Class69%
  • Steel67%
  • Fraud66%
  • Social Security63%
  • America First61%
  • Afford / Affordable / Affordability60%
  • Midterm59%
  • Illegal Alien56%
  • American Dream56%
  • 2028 / Campaign53%
  • Manufacture / Manufacturing52%
  • Inflation51%
  • Economy / Economic43%
  • Auto Worker / Autoworker39%
  • Ford / General Motors / GM36%
  • Electric Vehicle / EV35%
  • Made in America / American Made35%
  • Nuclear34%
  • Healthcare31%
  • AI / Artificial Intelligence28%
  • Fake News24%
  • Tariff18%
  • China / Chinese18%
  • Canada / Canadian15%
  • Small Business15%
  • Event does not qualify2%
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What will JD Vance say during NYT DealBook Summit?

75%Economy / Economic
  • Economy / Economic75%
  • Democrat74%
  • Fraud65%
17 more
  • Trump (3+ times)63%
  • Working Class / Middle Class62%
  • AI / Artificial Intelligence61%▲ 18
  • Oil / Gas / Gasoline60%▲ 8
  • 2028 / Campaign58%▲ 7
  • Afford / Affordable / Affordability56%▲ 1
  • Inflation56%
  • Biden56%
  • Nuclear55%
  • Tariff54%▲ 19
  • Manufacture / Manufacturing46%▲ 10
  • Iran / Iranian43%▼ 13
  • America First42%
  • China / Chinese36%▼ 6
  • Data Center28%▲ 2
  • Healthcare23%
  • Event does not qualify7%
KalshiCloses Dec 2 · $48 today

What will Trump say during his rally in Lubbock, Texas?

97%Dividend / Stimulus
  • Dividend / Stimulus97%
  • Save America Act96%▲ 2
  • Cheat / Cheater / Cheating94%▼ 1
36 more
  • Golden Age94%
  • Sanctuary91%▲ 5
  • China / Chinese88%▲ 3
  • France88%▲ 5
  • America First88%▲ 1
  • Nuclear (3+ times)87%▲ 10
  • Barack Hussein Obama86%▼ 5
  • Tariff (3+ times)84%▲ 1
  • Sleepy Joe84%▼ 3
  • Iran (5+ times)81%▼ 2
  • Supreme Court75%▼ 2
  • Hormuz73%▼ 2
  • Made in America / American Made71%▼ 5
  • Gulf of America70%▲ 2
  • ICE69%▼ 7
  • Kamala69%▲ 10
  • Russia / Ukraine68%▼ 11
  • Drill Baby Drill64%▼ 1
  • Canada / Canadian61%
  • Blockade60%▲ 4
  • Fraud (3+ times)44%▲ 21
  • Electricity40%▲ 3
  • Israel / Israeli39%▲ 2
  • Data Center28%▼ 27
  • AI / Artificial Intelligence23%
  • Space Force22%
  • Fentanyl21%▲ 6
  • Ceasefire21%▲ 14
  • Social Security (5+ times)20%▼ 5
  • Windmill18%▼ 1
  • Deport / Deported / Deportation18%▼ 5
  • Trump Account18%▼ 9
  • Palestine / Palestinian9%▲ 1
  • Peace in the Middle East3%▲ 1
  • Crypto / Bitcoin2%
  • Event does not qualify1%▼ 2
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What will Trump say during his rally in Corpus Christi, Texas?

97%Save America Act
  • Save America Act97%▲ 2
  • Cheat / Cheater / Cheating93%▲ 1
  • China / Chinese91%▲ 6
32 more
  • Tariff (3+ times)90%▲ 13
  • Barack Hussein Obama90%
  • America First89%▲ 16
  • Gulf of America89%▲ 6
  • France88%▲ 14
  • Sanctuary88%▲ 5
  • Iran (5+ times)87%▲ 5
  • Nuclear (3+ times)87%▲ 3
  • Sleepy Joe82%▲ 2
  • ICE77%▼ 4
  • Hormuz76%
  • Made in America / American Made76%▲ 11
  • Supreme Court75%▼ 6
  • Kamala65%▲ 3
  • Russia / Ukraine62%▼ 10
  • Blockade56%▲ 12
  • Drill Baby Drill52%▼ 18
  • Fraud (3+ times)40%▲ 14
  • Data Center36%▼ 4
  • Israel / Israeli32%
  • Electricity29%▼ 1
  • AI / Artificial Intelligence24%▲ 7
  • Fentanyl18%▲ 3
  • Deport / Deported / Deportation17%▼ 5
  • Ceasefire16%▲ 12
  • Windmill15%▲ 4
  • Social Security (5+ times)12%
  • Trump Account9%▼ 14
  • Palestine / Palestinian9%▲ 3
  • Peace in the Middle East2%
  • Crypto / Bitcoin2%
  • Event does not qualify1%▼ 2
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What will Trump say this week? (Before Nov 2, 2026)

100%Dividend / Stimulus
  • Dividend / Stimulus100%▲ 3
  • Blockade100%▲ 14
  • Rigged Election / Stolen Election100%▲ 14
30 more
  • Moon100%▲ 41
  • Canada / Canadian100%▲ 19
  • Diesel100%▲ 35
  • Ceasefire100%▲ 52
  • Soleimani100%▲ 71
  • Vivek / Ramaswamy98%▲ 12
  • Melania91%▲ 19
  • Bibi / Netanyahu84%▲ 9
  • Nobel78%▲ 15
  • Mortgage68%▲ 3
  • Refinery65%▲ 1
  • Cuba / Cuban60%▼ 3
  • Ranked Choice / Ranked-Choice58%▼ 7
  • Houthi54%▲ 37
  • Autopen / Auto Pen52%▲ 20
  • Ethanol51%▼ 14
  • Third Term48%▲ 3
  • Cybersecurity / Cyber Security42%▲ 18
  • Zohran / Mamdani35%▲ 1
  • Antifa27%▲ 14
  • Tomahawk18%
  • UFO / UAP18%
  • Crypto / Bitcoin16%▲ 1
  • Marijuana / Weed / Cannabis14%
  • Epstein13%▼ 21
  • Golden Dome8%
  • Uranium8%▼ 2
  • Peace in the Middle East7%
  • Prediction Market / Predictive Market7%
  • Make Iran Great Again7%
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

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