US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
66%October 22
- October 2266%
- October 2466%
- October 2866%▲ 3
6 more
- October 3166%▲ 7
- November 866%▲ 3
- November 1566%▲ 2
- November 2266%▲ 3
- November 3066%▲ 1
- December 3166%▲ 2
Install
When will the U.S. and Iran hold a diplomatic meeting?
The odds
45%Before Mar 1, 2027
- Before Nov 1, 20262%
- Before Dec 1, 202625%▲ 8
- Before Jan 1, 202732%▼ 1
- Before Feb 1, 202737%
- Before Mar 1, 202745%▲ 1
How the odds have moved
Before Nov 1, 2026: 7% on Oct 20, 2% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Oct 1, 2026 | 1% | $100.00 | 22.3K | |||
| Before Nov 1, 2026 | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 9.4K | |
| Before Dec 1, 2026 | 25% | ▲ 8 | 24¢ | 25¢ | $4.00 | 8.3K |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 32% | ▼ 1 | 31¢ | 32¢ | $3.13 | 2.4K |
| Before Feb 1, 2027 | 37% | 24¢ | 89¢ | $1.12 | 429 | |
| Before Mar 1, 2027 | 45% | ▲ 1 | 31¢ | 80¢ | $1.25 | 673 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Iran, U.S. and Iran, U.S.-Iran
Search ›-
U.S. and Iran Edge Back Toward Full WarJust dropped · Trial Balloon · Ep. 192 “Inside the Trump administration, officials are expressing fears that Iran is in the ‘advanced stages’ of planning attacks against U.S. officials,” the New York Times reports. “More than 6,000 miles… -
Why a new round in the U.S.-Iran conflict could be the most devastating yetThe warning signs are flashing red with indications that once the ballots are counted in the U.S. midterm elections, the United States and Israel will relaunch their war with Iran. The next round of attacks could be more devastating than… -
Oil Prices Fall as U.S.-Iran Diplomacy, Regional Tensions Remain in Focus -- 3rd UpdatePublished on 09/25/2026 at 04:06 pm EDT By Farhan Rafid and Anthony Harrup Oil prices fell Friday as investors assessed prospects for U.S.-Iran diplomacy aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz while keeping a measure of caution given… - Mike Waltz Says U.S.-Iran War Could Last Another Year as Brent Tops $117Published 24 Oct 2026, 05:24 UTC 11outlets comparedA wider view of the story Mike Waltz says the U.S.-Iran war could last another year. Brent crude rose to about $116–$117 a barrel amid Middle East tensions. Al Jazeera was read line by…
-
The U.S.-Iran War Shows No Signs of Abating. A Top Official Said Washington Can Keep the Blockade ‘For The Foreseeable Future.’U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Mike Waltz said the country is prepared for a "long stand-off" with Iran as the war shows no signs of abating. Speaking to the Financial Times, Waltz said he still has hopes that Tehran will sit down… - Mideast stocks-Gulf markets close mixed as investors assess U.S.-Iran diplomacyGulf stock markets closed mixed on Thursday while investors assessed renewed diplomatic efforts between the United States and Iran and progress in talks over the Strait of Hormuz. Qatar's prime... Al Rajhi Banking and Investment…
-
Oil Prices Slide On U.S.-Iran Mediation Reports; Trump's Last Preelection Card?Reports indicate that the U.S. and Iran have preliminarily accepted a proposal from Qatar and Pakistan. The post Oil Prices Slide On U.S.-Iran Mediation Reports; Trump's Last Preelection Card? appeared first on Investor's Business Daily… -
Andreas Kluth: U.S.-Iran war is making world hunger much worseStep away from the minute-by-minute news cycle for a moment and consider what two of the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council have wreaked: Russia and the United States, with their illegal wars against Ukraine and… -
Middle East oil flows now surpass levels before U.S.-Iran war, Kpler says(CL1:COM:Commodity) Seeking Alpha SlavkoSereda/iStock via Getty Images Middle East oil exports, including shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and alternative routes, averaged more than 24M bbl/day in the week through October 18… - Oil prices end lower in volatile session amid reports of U.S.-Iran diplomacy(USO:NYSEARCA) Seeking Alpha SlavkoSereda/iStock via Getty Images Crude oil futures fell Tuesday, pausing the significant two-week rally as traders weighed a reported meeting between Iran's president and Pakistan's army chief against…
-
Iran flashpoint deepens as war fears climbFresh intelligence and rising suspicion among all sides are pushing the confrontation over Iran into a more volatile phase, with election politics in both the United States and Israel adding to the danger. The risk is not only that an… -
Oil Slides as Hopes for U.S.-Iran Diplomacy Meet Rising Gulf RisksCrude pulled back Tuesday as talk of potential diplomatic progress between Washington and Tehran met a backdrop of worsening security at sea. The November WTI contract, set to roll off Tuesday, traded down 0.9% at 102.75 dollars after…
Related markets
All middle east ›Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
53%Gadi Eizenkot
- Gadi Eizenkot53%▲ 1
- Benjamin Netanyahu27%▼ 1
- Naftali Bennett14%
16 more
- Avigdor Lieberman2%▼ 1
- Israel Katz<1%
- Moshe Feiglin<1%
- Amir Ohana<1%
- Yossi Cohen<1%
- Itamar Ben Gvir<1%
- Yair Lapid<1%
- Benny Gantz<1%
- Yair Golan<1%
- Gideon Sa’ar<1%
- Yariv Levin<1%
- Ayelet Shaked<1%
- Yoaz Hendel<1%
- Nir Barkat<1%
- Gilad Erdan<1%
- Ofer Winter<1%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
72%October 24
- October 2472%
- October 2772%▲ 2
- October 3172%▲ 3
3 more
- November 1572%▲ 7
- November 3072%▲ 1
- December 3172%▼ 2
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
37%December 31
- March 3130%▲ 2
- October 3130%▲ 1
- November 3030%▲ 3
1 more
- December 3137%▲ 3
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
12%chance
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
20%chance▼ 1
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions