US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
67%October 22
- October 2267%
- October 2467%
- October 2867%▲ 5
6 more
- October 3167%▲ 3
- November 867%▲ 5
- November 1567%▲ 1
- November 2267%▲ 3
- November 3067%
- December 3167%▼ 1
Install
US-Iran nuclear deal? (Before Jan 20, 2029)
The odds
38%Before Jan 20, 2029
- Before Nov 1, 20262%
- Before Dec 1, 20267%
- Before Jan 1, 20279%
- Before Feb 1, 202714%
- Before Mar 1, 202721%▲ 2
- Before Jan 1, 202833%▲ 1
- Before Jan 20, 202938%
How the odds have moved
Before Jan 1, 2027: 8% on Oct 20, 9% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Sep 1, 2026 | 1% | $100.00 | 2.2M | |||
| Before Oct 1, 2026 | 1% | $100.00 | 1.1M | |||
| Before Nov 1, 2026 | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 1.5M | |
| Before Dec 1, 2026 | 7% | 6¢ | 7¢ | $14.29 | 310.2K | |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 9% | 9¢ | 9¢ | $10.87 | 1.9M | |
| Before Feb 1, 2027 | 14% | 13¢ | 15¢ | $6.67 | 31.2K | |
| Before Mar 1, 2027 | 21% | ▲ 2 | 18¢ | 23¢ | $4.35 | 88.9K |
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 33% | ▲ 1 | 32¢ | 33¢ | $3.03 | 126.9K |
| Before Jan 20, 2029 | 38% | 37¢ | 38¢ | $2.63 | 133.4K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Iran, US-Iran
Search ›-
"Whether war happens or not, our policies remain in place": Iran FM Araghchi on US-Iran tensionsBrazil reviews US-Paraguay deal on Itaipu energy for AI projects "Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam is practised, not merely preached": EAM Jaishankar on India's global outreach Pakistan’s LPG shortage rises as dealers strike, cooking fuel prices soar… -
US-Iran War Live Updates: Saudi Arabia reports intercepting Houthi ballistic missile over RiyadhTensions across the Middle East intensified as the United States, Israel, Saudi Arabia and Yemen reported military operations, exchanged warnings and ... US President Donald Trump has urged Israelis to vote for the return of Prime Minister… -
US: Iran's Plans to Attack Americans in 'Advanced Stages"The State Department is reducing staffing at four US embassies in the Middle East after receiving intel that Iran has stepped up efforts to target American personnel in the region... US: Iran's Plans to Attack Americans in 'Advanced… -
US-Iran war: Trump warns of fresh strikes on Tehran, says attack could come ‘tomorrow’After weeks of relative calm in the United States’ war with Iran, President Donald Trump has again raised the prospect of an attack, saying it “may be tomorrow”. His remarks come as he focuses on the midterm elections scheduled for 3… -
America quietly empties its nearest bases? US' Iran preparations deepen the mystery, Israel on alert | VideosIs Washington preparing another attack on Iran? Israeli broadcaster Kan reported that Trump ordered CENTCOM to prepare a strike plan without setting a target date or approving an immediate attack. Israel reportedly heightened its security… -
US-Iran-Israel War Latest News: Trump Says ‘Stop Killing Iranian Leaders’ to Identify US Negotiating Partners Amid Ongoing Tensions; Check Latest UpdateThe US president has reiterated his opposition to Iran acquiring nuclear weapons, claiming that US military action has already severely diminished Tehran’s leadership and defence capabilities. “I gotta stop” killing Iranian leaders, Trump… -
Dow Plunges 652 Points After Crude Oil Tops $100 on Renewed US-Iran War FearsNew York stocks closed lower on Friday, October 23, 2026, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbling 652.82 points, or 1.23%, to close at 52,215.16, as the previous session's technology selloff spread broadly across other sectors… - FTSE 100 Closes At 10,733 As US-Iran Compromise Reports Pull Oil Back From Five-Month HighBy Ewan Scott | Oct 26, 2026 | Economy & Business, Featured, News & Analysis, UK London’s blue-chip index fell for a second consecutive session on Tuesday, October 20, 2026, closing at 10,733.00, down 31.69 points or 0.29% from Monday’s…
-
As US-Iran talks stall, Pezeshkian heads to Moscow for Putin meetingIranian President Masoud Pezeshkian is set to meet Vladimir Putin in Moscow next week as the two countries discuss economic cooperation and the conflict involving Iran, the US and Israel. The meeting is expected alongside a summit of… -
Baghdad Fears Armed Factions Could Join Potential US-Iran WarDirect Israeli strikes on Iran, he told Asharq Al-Awsat, would make it "more serious" for some factions to shift from attacking US interests and bases in the region to striking deep inside Israel, potentially setting off retaliatory… -
US Iran War Live Updates: Iran president Pezeshkian to meet Russian counterpart Putin in Moscow next weekThe Indian Embassy in Riyadh said it was in contact with the family of an Indian national killed in an attack on Dammam airport in Saudi Arabia and was providing assistance to bring his mortal remains back to India. Of the two other… - Brent Crude Hits $117.42 Amid US-Iran Strike FearsBrent crude touched $117.42 per barrel on Friday, October 23, marking its highest level since April. The surge places the benchmark within $2 of its yearly high, driven by escalating military tensions in the Middle East and reports of…
Related markets
All middle east ›Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
58%Gadi Eizenkot
- Gadi Eizenkot58%▲ 6
- Benjamin Netanyahu28%
- Naftali Bennett11%▼ 5
16 more
- Avigdor Lieberman1%
- Israel Katz<1%
- Moshe Feiglin<1%
- Amir Ohana<1%
- Yossi Cohen<1%
- Itamar Ben Gvir<1%
- Yair Lapid<1%
- Benny Gantz<1%
- Yair Golan<1%
- Gideon Sa’ar<1%
- Yariv Levin<1%
- Ayelet Shaked<1%
- Yoaz Hendel<1%
- Nir Barkat<1%
- Gilad Erdan<1%
- Ofer Winter<1%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
72%October 24
- October 2472%
- October 2772%▲ 2
- October 3172%▲ 4
3 more
- November 1572%▼ 2
- November 3072%▲ 2
- December 3172%▼ 1
US-Yemen ceasefire continues through...?
93%October 21
- October 2193%
- October 3193%▲ 5
- November 3093%▲ 3
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
34%December 31
- March 3128%▲ 1
- October 3128%▼ 1
- November 3028%▼ 1
1 more
- December 3134%▼ 2
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
19%chance▼ 1
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions