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Who will be the next UN Secretary-General? (2027)
The odds
32%Nickolay Mladenov
- Nickolay Mladenov32%▲ 22
- Lana Nusseibeh31%▼ 27
- Rafael Grossi15%
- Rebeca Grynspan13%▲ 3
- Mia Mottley1%
- Alicia Bárcena1%
- Amina J. Mohammed1%
- Michelle Bachelet1%
- Gianni Infantino1%
- Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett1%▼ 1
- Macky Sall1%
- Olara Otunnu1%
3 more
- Sigrid Kaag1%
- Maria Fernanda Espinosa Garcés<1%
- Ivonne A-Baki<1%
How the odds have moved
Nickolay Mladenov: 4% on Oct 20, 32% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Oct 25, 9 AM ETNickolay Mladenov: 11% → 32%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nickolay Mladenov | 32% | ▲ 22 | 9¢ | 33¢ | $3.03 | 6.2K |
| Lana Nusseibeh | 31% | ▼ 27 | 31¢ | 46¢ | $2.17 | 10.5K |
| Rafael Grossi | 15% | 15¢ | 16¢ | $6.25 | 34.8K | |
| Rebeca Grynspan | 13% | ▲ 3 | 12¢ | 15¢ | $6.67 | 34.0K |
| Mia Mottley | 1% | 2¢ | $50.00 | 3.1K | ||
| Alicia Bárcena | 1% | 2¢ | $50.00 | 967 | ||
| Amina J. Mohammed | 1% | 2¢ | $50.00 | 4.9K | ||
| Michelle Bachelet | 1% | 2¢ | $50.00 | 10.4K | ||
| Gianni Infantino | 1% | 2¢ | $50.00 | 464 | ||
| Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett | 1% | ▼ 1 | 2¢ | $50.00 | 2.2K | |
| Macky Sall | 1% | 2¢ | $50.00 | 45.00 | ||
| Olara Otunnu | 1% | 2¢ | $50.00 | 279 | ||
| Sigrid Kaag | 1% | 2¢ | $50.00 | 2.5K | ||
| Maria Fernanda Espinosa Garcés | <1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 15.0K | ||
| Ivonne A-Baki | <1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 802 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: UN Secretary-General, Nickolay Mladenov, Lana Nusseibeh
Search ›No recent headlines name this market's subject.
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions