Brazil Presidential Election
>99%Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva>99%▲ 78
- Flávio Bolsonaro<1%▼ 78
Install
Next government of the United Kingdom? (Before Jan 1, 2030)
The odds
14%Labour majority
- Labour majority14%
- Reform UK majority8%
- Reform UK minority8%
- Labour, Liberal Democrat, and Green coalition7%
- Reform UK minority + Conservative support7%
- Labour minority5%
- Labour and Liberal Democrat coalition5%
- Labour minority + Liberal Democrat support5%
- Labour minority + LD/Green/SNP/Plaid support5%
- Labour minority + SNP support4%
- Reform UK and Conservative coalition4%
- Labour minority + Green support4%
7 more
- Conservative majority4%
- Conservative minority + Reform UK support4%
- Conservative minority4%
- Reform UK minority + DUP support3%
- Reform UK, Conservative, and DUP coalition3%
- Conservative minority + DUP support3%
- Conservative and Liberal Democrat coalition1%
How the odds have moved
Labour majority: 15% on Oct 19, 14% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Labour majority | 14% | 11¢ | 18¢ | $5.56 | 1.4K | |
| Reform UK majority | 8% | 6¢ | 11¢ | $9.09 | 30.00 | |
| Reform UK minority | 8% | 6¢ | 11¢ | $9.09 | 17.00 | |
| Labour, Liberal Democrat, and Green coalition | 7% | 4¢ | 11¢ | $9.09 | 311 | |
| Reform UK minority + Conservative support | 7% | 3¢ | 11¢ | $9.09 | 23.00 | |
| Labour minority | 5% | 2¢ | 9¢ | $10.64 | 191 | |
| Labour and Liberal Democrat coalition | 5% | 1¢ | 9¢ | $10.99 | 139 | |
| Labour minority + Liberal Democrat support | 5% | 1¢ | 9¢ | $10.99 | 144 | |
| Labour minority + LD/Green/SNP/Plaid support | 5% | 1¢ | 8¢ | $11.90 | 139 | |
| Labour minority + SNP support | 4% | 1¢ | 8¢ | $13.16 | 171 | |
| Reform UK and Conservative coalition | 4% | 1¢ | 7¢ | $13.51 | 79.00 | |
| Labour minority + Green support | 4% | 1¢ | 7¢ | $13.70 | 166 | |
| Conservative majority | 4% | 1¢ | 7¢ | $14.93 | 44.00 | |
| Conservative minority + Reform UK support | 4% | 1¢ | 7¢ | $15.15 | 9.00 | |
| Conservative minority | 4% | 1¢ | 7¢ | $15.38 | 243 | |
| Reform UK minority + DUP support | 3% | 1¢ | 6¢ | $18.18 | 112 | |
| Reform UK, Conservative, and DUP coalition | 3% | 1¢ | 5¢ | $19.61 | 61.00 | |
| Conservative minority + DUP support | 3% | 1¢ | 5¢ | $21.74 | 30.00 | |
| Conservative and Liberal Democrat coalition | 1% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 30.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: United Kingdom
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Joint Statement by the Foreign Ministers of Australia, Canada, France, and the United Kingdom on the Postponement of Palestinian ElectionsSenator the Hon Penny Wong We, the Foreign Ministers of Australia, Canada, France and the United Kingdom deeply regret the Palestinian President's decision to postpone the Palestinian Legislative Council elections as well as the… - United Kingdom Relaunches Be Ready Campaign, Urging Households To Stockpile Three Days SuppliesPublished 23 Oct 2026, 17:22 UTC Latest on this story24 Oct: UK Government Urges Households To Stock Three Days Of Food And Water Under “Be Ready”1 more Be Ready campaign asks households to keep three days of at-home supplies. Guidance…
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OPCW Chief Visits United KingdomThe OPCW Director-General Sabrina Dallafior paid an official visit to the United Kingdom from 19 to 20 October 2026. During the visit, she delivered a keynote address at the Chemical Weapons Demilitarisation (CWD) Conference, lectured at… -
Oman and United Kingdom reaffirm commitment to cooperation and economic prosperityMuscat: The United Kingdom and the Sultanate of Oman commit to strengthen and deepen our relationship, monitor progress against agreed priorities, and ensure that cooperation remains focused on mutual benefit, Oman’s Vision 2040, the UK’s… -
Questions lingering on Jewish minds in the United KingdomIs Britain safe for Jews? It is the question on everyone’s minds. But it is also one that our parents and grandparents never needed to ask—and that fact alone shames my country to its core. Over the past six months, my colleague Rosa… -
Four Leaders Decided Upon The End of the United KingdomThis is so ironic Recently, four political leaders met at a hotel in Wales and signed a document making a bold prediction. They were Scotland’s First Minister John Swinney, Wales’s First Minister Rhun ap Iorwerth, Northern Ireland’s First… - Remarks at the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Glasgow, United KingdomLadies and gentlemen, to state the obvious, we meet with the eyes of history upon us and the profound questions before us. It's simple: Will we act? Will we do what is necessary? Will we seize the enormous opportunity before us? Or will we…
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United Kingdom and Nigeria Ratify New Agreements on Border Security and Organised CrimeThe UK and Nigeria have formalised security agreements to tackle visa fraud, streamline extraditions, and establish safe pathways for legitimate business travel. The governments of the United Kingdom and Nigeria have formalised a… -
Sarah MacIntosh, Permanent Representative of the United Kingdom to the United Nations — Statement at the UN Security Council on the Question Concerning HaitiHuman Rights in the Age of Climate Change America250: Declaration of Unalienable Rights, Backed by Sacred Honor and Rockets’ Red Glare Statement by S. Jaishankar, Minister of External Affairs of India, at the General Debate of the 81st… -
Colombia, Denmark, France, Greece, Latvia, Liberia, Panama and the United Kingdom — Joint Remarks to the Press on Climate, Peace and Security in HaitiHuman Rights in the Age of Climate Change America250: Declaration of Unalienable Rights, Backed by Sacred Honor and Rockets’ Red Glare Statement by S. Jaishankar, Minister of External Affairs of India, at the General Debate of the 81st… -
Judge orders Trump to sit for deposition he canceled in BBC lawsuitA judge warned the president’s lawyers that his lawsuit could be thrown out if he doesn’t comply with court orders. MIAMI — A judge overseeing President Donald Trump’s $10 billion defamation lawsuit against the BBC ordered the president to… -
London headmistress explains how education drove riots in FranceMichaela School headmistress Katharine Birbalsingh discusses concerns that riots across France could cross into the United Kingdom on ‘Fox News @ Night.’ ... London headmistress explains how education drove riots in France Michaela School…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions