Texas Senate winner? (2026)
65%James Talarico
- James Talarico65%
- Ken Paxton36%
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Texas Governor-Senate combo (Before Nov 2026)
The odds
40%Greg Abbott and James Talarico win
- Greg Abbott and James Talarico win40%▲ 2
- Greg Abbott and Ken Paxton win32%▼ 1
- Gina Hinojosa and James Talarico win29%
- Gina Hinojosa and Ken Paxton win<1%
How the odds have moved
Greg Abbott and James Talarico win: 44% on Oct 20, 40% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Abbott and James Talarico win | 40% | ▲ 2 | 40¢ | 41¢ | $2.44 | 83.1K |
| Greg Abbott and Ken Paxton win | 32% | ▼ 1 | 32¢ | 34¢ | $2.94 | 90.1K |
| Gina Hinojosa and James Talarico win | 29% | 29¢ | 30¢ | $3.33 | 72.5K | |
| Gina Hinojosa and Ken Paxton win | <1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 32.7K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Texas Governor-Senate
Search ›No recent headlines name this market's subject.
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All senate ›Texas Senate Election Winner
65%James Talarico (D)
- James Talarico (D)65%▲ 2
- Ken Paxton (R)36%▼ 1
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63%Democratic Party
- Democratic Party63%▼ 1
- Republican Party37%
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- Democratic party75%▼ 1
- Republican party26%▲ 1
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63%Democrats sweep
- Democrats sweep63%▼ 1
- D-House, R-Senate26%▲ 1
- Republicans sweep10%▲ 1
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- R-House, D-Senate1%
Michigan Senate winner? (2026)
66%Abdul El-Sayed
- Abdul El-Sayed66%▼ 2
- Mike Rogers34%▲ 3
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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions