Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?
11%chance▲ 3
Install
Will Trump make a recess appointment?
The odds
15%Before Jan 21, 2029
- Before Jan 1, 20276%▲ 1
- Before Jan 1, 202811%▲ 1
- Before Jan 21, 202915%
How the odds have moved
Before Jan 1, 2027: 6% on Oct 19, 6% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 6% | ▲ 1 | 2¢ | 9¢ | $11.11 | 2.00 |
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 11% | ▲ 1 | 7¢ | 15¢ | $6.67 | 8.00 |
| Before Jan 21, 2029 | 15% | 11¢ | 19¢ | $5.26 | 1.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Trump
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President Trump, first lady Melania Trump cast early voting ballotsPresident Donald Trump and first lady Melania Trump deliver remarks after casting their early voting ballots in West Palm Beach, Fla. President Trump, first lady Melania Trump cast early voting ballots President Donald Trump and first lady… -
Florida’s new TrumpThe unofficial guide to official Washington, every morning and weekday afternoons. By DASHA BURNS, WILL STEAKIN and ADAM WREN 10/23/2026 06:05 AM EDT With help from Eli Okun, Ali Bianco and Irie Sentner Happy Friday. As Election Day bears… -
President Trump and first lady Melania Trump vote early in West Palm BeachA hoarse-sounding President Trump and first lady Melania Trump voted early in West Palm Beach on Saturday – as Trump vowed to keep up the vigorous campaign schedule A hoarse-sounding President Trump cast his ballot alongside first lady… -
Obama MOCKS Trump's White House renovationsFormer President Barack Obama mocked President Donald Trump's White House renovations during a campaign rally for Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan. Obama MOCKS Trump's White House renovations Former President Barack Obama mocked President Donald… -
2026 Midterm Elections: Trump, Obama Rally MichiganPresident Donald Trump is set to campaign in Michigan as Democrats deploy Barack Obama and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez while a Justice Department lawsuit threatens to complicate the closely watched Alaska Senate race. President Donald Trump… -
Trump demands Ilhan Omar immediately resign from CongressThe 'Ruthless Podcast' co-hosts discuss the latest on the Ilhan Omar controversy as she faces two federal investigations. 'Fox & Friends Weekend' co-hosts also weigh in on a report comparing the president to Hitler over the probes. Trump… -
Trump RIPS Obama: Iran thought he was a SUCKER!President Donald Trump sharply criticized Barack Obama's previous JCPOA deal with Iran, calling it the 'worst and dumbest deal' he has ever seen. Trump RIPS Obama: Iran thought he was a SUCKER! President Donald Trump sharply criticized… -
Trump casts his midterm ballot early in FloridaWEST PALM BEACH, Fla. — President Donald Trump cast his ballot in the midterm elections Saturday, saying he voted for all Republicans in Florida before speaking at a Georgia rally. Trump and first lady Melania Trump arrived at their West… -
Trump rallies Republicans in Georgia ahead of midtermsFox News' Madison Scarpino reports from Perry, Georgia, where Trump rallies supporters for Republican candidates. Trump rallies Republicans in Georgia ahead of midterms Fox News' Madison Scarpino reports from Perry, Georgia, where Trump… -
Tracking Trump: Trump rolls back Canada tariffs; Melania Trump’s peace deal; Hegseth bans insider trading; and moreBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. Trump rolled back some… -
Ella Baron on Trump’s admiration for Putin – cartoonContinue reading... Ella Baron on Trump’s admiration for Putin – cartoon -
Trump says he WARNED Macron: 'You are DESTROYING France'President Donald Trump discusses immigration in Europe during an appearance on 'Sunday Morning Futures,' criticizing policies in France, Spain and Italy and recalling a warning he says he delivered to French President Emmanuel Macron…
Related markets
All congress ›Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
11%Thom Tillis
- Thom Tillis11%▼ 1
- Kirsten Gillibrand9%▼ 1
- Andy Kim8%
12 more
- Jacky Rosen7%
- John Fetterman7%
- Alex Padilla7%
- Raphael Warnock7%▼ 1
- Catherine Cortez Masto7%
- Mike Lee6%
- Mark Warner6%
- Josh Hawley6%
- Lisa Blunt Rochester5%
- Rand Paul5%▼ 2
- Jerry Moran5%
- Ruben Gallego3%▼ 1
How many House seats will Democrats win in the Midterms?
239.7median
206254
Median 239.7Middle half 230.2 – 248
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)
9.44%median
-100%100%
Median 9.44%Middle half 7.07% – 11.53%
Will the Onion Futures Act be repealed? (Before Jan 1, 2030)
28%Before Jan 1, 2030
- Before Jan 1, 20274%
- Before Jan 1, 202813%
- Before Jan 1, 202914%
1 more
- Before Jan 1, 203028%
Will the SAVE America Act become law?
21%Before Jan 1, 2028
- Before Nov 1, 20261%
- Before Dec 1, 20263%
- Before Jan 1, 20273%▼ 1
2 more
- Before Jul 1, 20275%▼ 2
- Before Jan 1, 202821%▲ 1
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions