Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/26 - 11/1)
189.1median
140230
Median 189.1Middle half 174.1 – 201.4
Install
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei?
The odds
5%Before Jan 1, 2027
- Before Jan 1, 20275%▼ 1
How the odds have moved
Before Jan 1, 2027: 7% on Oct 20, 5% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Oct 1, 2026 | 3% | $33.33 | 7.7K | |||
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 5% | ▼ 1 | 4¢ | 6¢ | $16.67 | 13.8K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei
Search ›-
Tasnim: Ghalibaf Meets with Mojtaba KhameneiThe Tasnim News Agency, affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), reported on Wednesday, October 21, 2026, that Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf met with Mojtaba Khamenei. In a report titled “Parliament… -
Why 'Healthy' Mojtaba Khamenei Can't Appear In Public, Reveals Iran DiplomatJust last week Mojtaba Khamenei, Iran's supreme leader, held a 7-8 hour meeting with the country's president, representative of the supreme leader and senior diplomat Abdul Majid Hakeem Elahi told NDTV, clearing the air around the top… -
Mojtaba Khamenei took part in protests? Iranian envoy shares rare details about supreme leader’s whereaboutsAbdul Majid Hakeem Ilahi, the supreme leader’s representative in India, said Mojtaba occasionally steps out of his residence at night, participated in a demonstration organised by the Iranian people and attended his father’s funeral in… -
NUCLEAR WARNING: Netanyahu Says Mojtaba Khamenei Ordered Iran To Advance Bomb WeaponizationPrime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu has warned that Mojtaba Khamenei ordered Iran to advance work on the weaponization systems needed for a nuclear bomb, as Tehran moves to protect its nuclear infrastructure underground. In an interview… - ‘Mojtaba Khamenei is healthy, attended father’s funeral', says Iranian diplomatAmid speculation over the health and whereabouts of Mojtaba Khamenei, an Iranian diplomat said on Thursday that the Supreme Leader is “very, very, very healthy” and is on the job. Weeks after reports speculated that Mojtaba didn't attend…
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Iranian Parliament Ghalibaf meets with Supreme Leader Mojtaba KhameneiIranian media report that Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf met with Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei.According to the reports, the meeting included "a review of the latest developments in the military, economic, and… -
Barack Obama Slams Donald Trump, Pete Hegseth Over Iran WarOct 24, 2026 at 04:01 PM EDT Oct 24, 2026 at 04:08 PM EDT Former President Barack Obama criticized President Donald Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth on Saturday over the war with Iran, calling the administration “not serious… - Mojtaba Khamenei reportedly meets with GhalibafIranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf allegedly met with Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei on Wednesday, according to Iranian state media outlet IRIB. The two reportedly discussed ongoing hostilities with the…
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Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu orders IDF, Mossad to pursue overthrow of Iranian regimeIsraeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Wednesday that he had directed the Israel Defense Forces, Mossad and other security branches to pursue the overthrow of the Iranian regime, calling it the only way to eliminate the nuclear… - Netanyahu says U.S. and Israel must topple Iranian regimeThe Washington Post Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Iran posed an “existential threat” and that President Donald Trump had said he was “ready to finish the job.” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Wednesday night…
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Trump, Netanyahu threats betray 'desperation', aide to Iran's supreme leader saysMohammed Mokhber, an adviser to the Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, has said that "psychological warfare" and threats of war by US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin ... Trump, Netanyahu threats betray… -
Iran judiciary says chief holds rare meeting with supreme leaderTEHRAN: Iran’s judiciary said on Saturday that its chief held a rare meeting with the country’s supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei, who has yet to appear in public since being appointed. Mojtaba was chosen in March to succeed his father and…
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When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
Feb 27, 2028even chance by
- Before Nov 1, 20262%
- Before Dec 1, 20265%
- Before Jan 1, 20278%
14 more
- Before Feb 1, 20279%▼ 1
- Before Mar 1, 202714%▼ 2
- Before Apr 1, 202718%
- Before May 1, 202719%▼ 2
- Before Jun 1, 202725%
- Before Jul 1, 202731%
- Before Aug 1, 202733%
- Before Sep 1, 202734%▼ 1
- Before Oct 1, 202737%
- Before Nov 1, 202741%
- Before Dec 1, 202741%
- Before Jan 1, 202848%▼ 1
- Before Jul 1, 202856%
- Before Jan 1, 202960%
Will France declare a state of emergency? (Before Jan 1, 2027)
20%Before Jan 1, 2027
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.