Traffic through the Panama Canal? (10/26 - 11/1)
195.9median
160230
Median 195.9Middle half 185.7 – 201.3
Install
Will Trump talk to Lula before November?
The odds
44%chance
How the odds have moved
Yes: 27% on Oct 26, 44% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 44% | 42¢ | 46¢ | $2.17 | 2.5K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Luiz Inácio Lula, Lula
Search ›-
Brazil markets, currency reel from leftist Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s election winBrazil’s markets and currency plunged Monday in the aftermath of leftist President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s reelection victory, prompting a temporary halt in trading in the South American country. Futures on the Brazilian stock index… -
Brazil runoff live updates: polls set to close as Flávio Bolsonaro narrowly leads Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in race for presidencyThundering to a crowd of thousands of far-right supporters in São Paulo on 7 September, Brazil’s Independence Day, the senator Flávio Bolsonaro focused less on his opponent in the presidential election, the leftist president Luiz Inácio… -
Global leaders react to reelection of Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, a Trump criticRegional and world leaders congratulated Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva after he defeated challenger Flávio Bolsonaro to win an unprecedented fourth term. Latin America's left-leaning leaders were especially quick to react… -
Brazilian stock market plunges nearly 17% after Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva win- Moneycontrol.comThe Brazilian stock market plummeted nearly 17 percent at opening on Monday, following the re-election of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. The leftist leader won 51.8 per cent of the vote to 48.2 per cent for his right-wing challenger… -
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva: latest news, speeches & photosSputnik International is a global news media keeping you updated on all the latest world news 24/7. Browse Sputnik for breaking news and top stories on politics, economy, social media and the most viral trends. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva –… -
Brazil President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva wins reelection over Flávio BolsonaroThe son of imprisoned former President Jair Bolsonaro bested Lula by more than 2.2 million votes in the first round of voting earlier this month. More than 33 million of the nearly 160 million registered voters did not turn out. The… -
The Latest: Brazil President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva wins reelection over Flávio BolsonaroLeftist incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva defeated Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro, a far-right ally of U.S. President Donald Trump, and was reelected to a fourth term in Brazil's presidential runoff Sunday. The son of imprisoned former President… -
Brazil elections: Voters choosing between Flávio Bolsonaro and Luiz Inácio Lula da SilvaBrazilians are voting to choose their new president in a closely fought run-off election - polls will close at 17:00 local time (20:00 GMT) It is the second round of voting after right-wing senator Flávio Bolsonaro won the first round… -
Brazil's Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva reelected president in runoff voteLeftist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva won Brazil's presidential election, the country's electoral authority said on Sunday (October 25), defeating right-wing Senator Flavio Bolsonaro in a runoff to secure a fourth non-consecutive… -
The Latest: Brazil President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva wins fourth term, electoral court saysFILE - Brazil President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, right, who is running for reelection, gestures as opposition presidential candidate Sen. Flavio Bolsonaro stands beside him during a televised presidential debate one week before the… -
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva wins reelection in Brazil, securing fourth presidential termRIO DE JANEIRO — Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, a vocal critic of U.S. President Donald Trump, was reelected Sunday in a result that provides relief to critics of U.S. President Donald Trump and keeps some distance between… -
Who Is Rosângela ‘Janja’ Lula da Silva? Brazil’s First Lady and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s Wife; Know Her Age, Education, Career, Family, Children, Net Worth, Background & MoreRosângela Lula da Silva, known by her nickname Janja, is a Brazilian sociologist and public figure who currently serves as the First Lady of Brazil. The post Who Is Rosângela ‘Janja’ Lula da Silva? Brazil’s First Lady and Luiz Inácio Lula…
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Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/26 - 11/1)
190.7median
140230
Median 190.7Middle half 177.4 – 198.6
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
Feb 21, 2028even chance by
- Before Nov 1, 20261%
- Before Dec 1, 20265%▼ 1
- Before Jan 1, 20278%▲ 1
14 more
- Before Feb 1, 20278%▼ 1
- Before Mar 1, 202713%
- Before Apr 1, 202720%▲ 4
- Before May 1, 202720%▼ 1
- Before Jun 1, 202725%
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- Before Aug 1, 202733%
- Before Sep 1, 202734%
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- Before Nov 1, 202742%
- Before Dec 1, 202742%▲ 1
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Traffic through the Suez Canal? (10/26 - 11/1)
296.7median
250340
Median 296.7Middle half 284.7 – 307.1
Will the US acquire any new territory? (By 2029)
24%Before Jan 21, 2029
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- Before Jan 202817%
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions