DeepSeek market share this week (DeepSeek market share - Oct 19, 2026)
26.84%median
21.6%29%
Median 26.84%Middle half 25.3% – 27.64%
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Top AI model this month (Oct 31, 2026)
The odds
73%gemini-4-argon-high
- gemini-4-argon-high73%▼ 4
- claude-opus-5.5-high1%
- claude-fable-5.1-max1%
How the odds have moved
gemini-4-argon-high: 78% on Oct 20, 73% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| gemini-4-argon-high | 73% | ▼ 4 | 69¢ | 76¢ | $1.32 | 5.9K |
| claude-opus-5.5-high | 1% | 2¢ | $50.00 | 10.8K | ||
| claude-fable-5.1-max | 1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 26.6K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: AI model, artificial intelligence
Search ›No recent headlines name this market's subject.
Related markets
All ai ›Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...?
Oct 27, 2026even chance by
- October 2113%▼ 29
- October 2224%▼ 35
- October 2438%▼ 39
2 more
- October 3174%▼ 10
- December 3196%▼ 2
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
$2.14Thigh with an even chance
Traders see an even chance of trading as high as $2.14T.
- Reaches $1.5T91%
- Reaches $1.75T69%
- Falls to $800B4%
- Falls to $700B4%
Already reached: ↑$1.25T, ↑$1.1T, ↑$1.0T
Which company has the best AI model end of October?
73%Google
- Google73%▲ 2
- Anthropic24%▼ 4
- OpenAI1%
18 more
- Meta1%
- Alibaba<1%
- Moonshot<1%
- Baidu<1%
- Z.ai<1%
- Xiaomi<1%
- SpaceXAI<1%
- DeepSeek<1%
- Amazon<1%
- ByteDance<1%
- Nvidia<1%
- Thinky<1%
- MiniMax<1%
- Mistral<1%
- Meituan<1%
- Tencent<1%
- StepFun<1%
- Microsoft<1%
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on...?
27%No release by October 31
- No release by October 3127%▲ 11
- October 2715%▲ 4
- October 2012%▼ 21
11 more
- October 2211%▼ 10
- October 316%▲ 5
- October 294%▲ 4
- October 244%▼ 1
- October 233%▼ 2
- October 212%▼ 5
- October 262%▲ 1
- October 282%
- October 302%▲ 1
- October 251%
- October 19<1%▼ 2
Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
50%Anthropic
- Anthropic50%▲ 2
- Google40%▲ 1
- OpenAI6%▼ 1
12 more
- Meta1%
- xAI1%
- Alibaba<1%
- DeepSeek<1%
- Moonshot<1%
- Z.ai<1%
- Mistral<1%
- Microsoft<1%
- Amazon<1%
- ByteDance<1%
- Baidu<1%
- Meituan<1%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.