Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030?

Kalshi Tech › AI Closes Dec 31, 2029 · $2 traded · $2 at stake · prices read 7 h ago

The odds

85%OpenAI

OpenAI85%▼ 1
Google78%▼ 1
Meta61%▼ 1
Xiaomi60%▼ 1
Baidu60%▼ 1
Tencent55%▼ 1
DeepSeek45%▼ 1
Moonshot45%▼ 1
Z AI45%▼ 1
MiniMax45%▼ 1
xAI40%▼ 1
Alibaba30%▼ 1

21 more

ByteDance25%▼ 1
Amazon15%▼ 1
Microsoft15%▼ 1
Huawei10%▼ 1
Mistral9%
StepFun6%
NVIDIA6%
Thinking Machines6%
China Mobile6%
Institute of Foundation Models6%
Upstage6%
InclusionAI6%
LongCat6%
Cohere6%
Inception6%
Arcee AI6%
Safe Superintelligence6%
Reflection AI6%
Essential AI6%
Prime Intellect6%
LG AI Research6%

How the odds have moved

OpenAI: 85% on Oct 19, 85% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
OpenAI	85%	▼ 1	81¢	89¢	$1.12
Google	78%	▼ 1	74¢	82¢	$1.22
Meta	61%	▼ 1	57¢	65¢	$1.54
Xiaomi	60%	▼ 1	56¢	64¢	$1.56
Baidu	60%	▼ 1	56¢	64¢	$1.56
Tencent	55%	▼ 1	51¢	59¢	$1.69
DeepSeek	45%	▼ 1	41¢	49¢	$2.04
Moonshot	45%	▼ 1	41¢	49¢	$2.04
Z AI	45%	▼ 1	41¢	49¢	$2.04	5.00
MiniMax	45%	▼ 1	41¢	49¢	$2.04
xAI	40%	▼ 1	36¢	44¢	$2.27
Alibaba	30%	▼ 1	26¢	34¢	$2.94
ByteDance	25%	▼ 1	21¢	29¢	$3.45
Amazon	15%	▼ 1	11¢	19¢	$5.26
Microsoft	15%	▼ 1	11¢	19¢	$5.26
Huawei	10%	▼ 1	6¢	14¢	$7.14
Mistral	9%		5¢	12¢	$8.33
StepFun	6%		2¢	9¢	$11.11
NVIDIA	6%		2¢	9¢	$11.11
Thinking Machines	6%		2¢	9¢	$11.11
China Mobile	6%		2¢	9¢	$11.11
Institute of Foundation Models	6%		2¢	9¢	$11.11
Upstage	6%		2¢	9¢	$11.11
InclusionAI	6%		2¢	9¢	$11.11
LongCat	6%		2¢	9¢	$11.11
Cohere	6%		2¢	9¢	$11.11
Inception	6%		2¢	9¢	$11.11
Arcee AI	6%		2¢	9¢	$11.11
Safe Superintelligence	6%		2¢	9¢	$11.11
Reflection AI	6%		2¢	9¢	$11.11
Essential AI	6%		2¢	9¢	$11.11
Prime Intellect	6%		2¢	9¢	$11.11
LG AI Research	6%		2¢	9¢	$11.11

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: AI model, artificial intelligence

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No recent headlines name this market's subject.

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26.34%median

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Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?

$2.14Thigh with an even chance

Traders see an even chance of trading as high as $2.14T.

Reaches $1.5T88%
Reaches $1.75T70%

Falls to $800B4%
Falls to $700B4%

Already reached: ↑$1.25T, ↑$1.1T, ↑$1.0T

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Which company has the best AI model end of October?

74%Google

Google74%▲ 2
Anthropic24%▼ 2
OpenAI1%

18 more

Meta1%
Alibaba<1%
Moonshot<1%
Baidu<1%
Z.ai<1%
Xiaomi<1%
SpaceXAI<1%
DeepSeek<1%
Amazon<1%
ByteDance<1%
Nvidia<1%
Thinky<1%
MiniMax<1%
Mistral<1%
Meituan<1%
Tencent<1%
StepFun<1%
Microsoft<1%

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Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on...?

26%October 20

October 2026%▼ 4
No release by October 3118%▲ 2
October 2215%▼ 6

11 more

October 2714%▲ 3
October 294%▲ 4
October 244%
October 314%▲ 4
October 234%
October 213%▼ 5
October 262%
October 282%
October 251%
October 301%
October 19<1%▼ 2

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Which company has best AI model end of 2026?

51%Anthropic

Anthropic51%▲ 3
Google40%▲ 1
OpenAI6%▼ 2

12 more

xAI1%
Meta1%
Alibaba<1%
DeepSeek<1%
Moonshot<1%
Z.ai<1%
Mistral<1%
Microsoft<1%
Amazon<1%
ByteDance<1%
Baidu<1%
Meituan<1%

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onArtificial Analysis, Epoch AI, LiveBench

Trading closesDec 31, 2029 11:58 PM ET

Traded$2 (5 contracts)

This week$2

At stake$2

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If OpenAI has the highest-ranked AI model on the applicable index before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Prices it is about

Amazon.com, Inc.AMZN · about the company263.64+0.45%
Alibaba Group Holding LimitedBABA · about the company106.80−1.57%
Baidu, Inc.BIDU · about the company79.90+0.15%
Alphabet Inc.GOOGL · about the company342.44−0.51%
Meta Platforms, Inc.META · about the company689.18−2.31%
Microsoft CorporationMSFT · about the company532.97−0.10%
NVDANVDA · about the company

From 4Conservative Finance. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.