Brazil Presidential Election
83%Flávio Bolsonaro
- Flávio Bolsonaro83%▲ 6
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva17%▼ 6
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East Timor presidential election winner? (2027)
The odds
22%José Ramos-Horta
- José Ramos-Horta22%
- Francisco Kalbuadi Lay18%
- Rui Maria de Araújo18%
- Armanda Berta dos Santos7%
- Lere Anan Timur6%
- Bendito Freitas5%
- Taur Matan Ruak4%
- António da Conceição4%
- Joaquim da Fonseca4%
- Francisco Dionísio Fernandes3%
How the odds have moved
José Ramos-Horta: 22% on Oct 19, 22% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| José Ramos-Horta | 22% | 18¢ | 26¢ | $3.85 | ||
| Francisco Kalbuadi Lay | 18% | 14¢ | 22¢ | $4.55 | ||
| Rui Maria de Araújo | 18% | 14¢ | 22¢ | $4.55 | ||
| Armanda Berta dos Santos | 7% | 3¢ | 11¢ | $9.09 | ||
| Lere Anan Timur | 6% | 2¢ | 10¢ | $10.00 | ||
| Bendito Freitas | 5% | 1¢ | 8¢ | $12.50 | ||
| Taur Matan Ruak | 4% | 1¢ | 7¢ | $14.29 | ||
| António da Conceição | 4% | 1¢ | 7¢ | $14.29 | ||
| Joaquim da Fonseca | 4% | 1¢ | 6¢ | $16.67 | ||
| Francisco Dionísio Fernandes | 3% | 1¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: East Timor, José Ramos-Horta, Francisco Kalbuadi Lay
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Aid cuts forcing fossil fuel dependence in East TimorDwindling aid is forcing the Asia-Pacific region's youngest nation to maintain its unhealthy addiction to fossil fuels, an Australian clean energy summit has been told. President Jose Ramos-Horta says East Timor's electricity grid is… - From Kosovo and East Timor to Somaliland. Will President Trump Make History?By Eng. Abdi Ali BarkhadPolitical Analyst and Writer on the Horn of Africa The history of American diplomacy offers an important perspective on Somaliland’s pursuit of international recognition. On 20 May 2002, during President George W…
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Timor-Leste president says diesel dependence raises energy-transition challengeLondon Daily News Timor-Leste’s president has described the country’s dependence on diesel-fired electricity as a barrier to investment, while arguing that fossil-fuel development remains part of the route towards a greener economy. José… -
Philippines ASEANPost Register - Manage Subscription (Pay Your Bill, Vacation Request, Update Account Info) East Timor's Minister of Interior Francisco da Costa Guterres reads a document during the 20th ASEAN Ministerial Meeting on Transnational Crime and… -
Independents embarrass Labor on human rights“The 40 per cent of ACT voters who put David Pocock as their first preference at the last election should be feeling very proud of his performance,” writes political columnist MICHAEL MOORE. Why does it take the independents to identify… - East Timor shuts schools as Indonesia wildfire haze intensifies, Asia NewsDILI/JAKARTA — East Timor shut its schools for three days in response to intensifying smoke and haze from Indonesia's wildfires. The East Timor government said in a statement that it was suspending face-to-face learning activities for…
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Kyrgyzstan assesses its readiness to recover from natural disastersKyrgyzstan has begun assessing the readiness of government agencies to recover from natural disasters, the Asian Express reports. Based on the results of the event, which will be attended by the Asian Development Bank (ADB), the Asian… -
Timor-Leste PM offers to quit amid budget impasseTimor-Leste Prime Minister Taur Matan Ruak has submitted a letter of resignation to President Francisco "Lu'Olo" Guterres after the country’s parliament failed to pass the 2020 state budget totaling US$1,668 billion. The two-star general… -
Timor-Leste and Vietnam to increase parliamentary cooperationRegarding cooperation within the ASEAN Inter-Parliamentary Assembly (AIPA), Lay expressed her hope that Vietnam would continue to provide support and share experience to help the National Parliament of Timor-Leste participate more… -
In Malaysia, frustration grows over Indonesia hazeClosed schools, shuttered sports centres and mass mask handouts. Indonesian wildfire haze has caused a regional pollution crisis and prompted growing frustration in neighbours, including Malaysia. “You need to treat them as an outcast in… -
Frustration grows in Malaysia over Indonesian hazeKuwait Times Frustration grows in Malaysia over Indonesian haze KUALA LUMPUR: Smoke from Indonesian wildfires has closed schools and sports centers and prompted mass handouts of face masks in Malaysia, fueling growing frustration with its… -
Indonesia’s new disaster mitigation chief plans to assess foreign aid to tackle wildfiresIndonesian authorities said on Thursday they would consider offers of foreign assistance to tackle the country’s biggest forest fires in over a decade after President Prabowo Subianto named new disaster management leaders. The South-East…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.