When will a reconciliation bill pass the Senate?

Kalshi Politics › Congress Closes Jan 1, 2027 · $1 today · $726 traded · $336 at stake · prices read 6 h ago

The odds

19%Before Jan 1, 2027

Before Nov 1, 20261%
Before Dec 1, 20263%▼ 1
Before Jan 1, 202719%▼ 4

How the odds have moved

Before Nov 1, 2026: 1% on Oct 19, 1% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Before Sep 1, 2026	1%				$100.00	364
Before Oct 1, 2026	2%				$50.00	2.5K
Before Nov 1, 2026	1%			2¢	$50.00	2.3K
Before Dec 1, 2026	3%	▼ 1	1¢	5¢	$20.00	2.2K
Before Jan 1, 2027	19%	▼ 4	17¢	29¢	$3.45	3.1K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Senate

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Texas Senate race tied as early voting surgesFox News · 37 h agoFox News host Will Cain discusses the latest in the deadlocked Texas Senate race between Ken Paxton and James Talarico on 'The Will Cain Show' ... Texas Senate race tied as early voting surges Fox News host Will Cain discusses the latest…
Marshall, Hamilton clash in heated Kansas Senate debateCBS News · 44 h agoCBS News is a trusted source for the latest in politics, U.S. and world news. The network is home to award-winning broadcasts CBS Mornings, CBS Evening News, 60 Minutes, CBS Sunday Morning, 48 Hours and Face the Nation. Marshall, Hamilton…
Senate hopefuls face off in Michigan and KansasNBC News · 2 days agoNBC News Senate hopefuls face off in Michigan and Kansas
Fox News Poll: Nail-biter in Maine Senate raceFox News · 41 h agoSen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, says she was struck by her opponent Troy Jackson’s ‘shut up’ comment on ‘Hannity.’ Maine voters are in a negative mood this election season. Only 12% say their family is better off financially compared to two…
2026 Senate Battleground Polls: Midterm Primary TrendsNBC News · 3 days agoNBC News Senate battlegrounds: Latest polls See how candidates are polling in competitive races for the U.S. Senate, seats critical to control of the chamber in November. Republicans are fighting to maintain and expand their majority…
Trump asked is he's 'worried' about Mississippi US Senate raceFox News · 38 h agoFox News Trump asked is he's 'worried' about Mississippi US Senate race President Donald Trump responds Thursday outside the White House when asked if he is concerned by the U.S. Senate race in Mississippi, where GOP incumbent Cindy…
El-Sayed, Rogers trade barbs at final Michigan Senate debateCBS News · 40 h agoCBS News is a trusted source for the latest in politics, U.S. and world news. The network is home to award-winning broadcasts CBS Mornings, CBS Evening News, 60 Minutes, CBS Sunday Morning, 48 Hours and Face the Nation. El-Sayed, Rogers…
Could gas prices in rural Alaska decide the Senate?NBC News · 2 days agoNBC News Could gas prices in rural Alaska decide the Senate?
Ossoff pulls ahead of Collins in new Georgia Senate pollCBS News · 2 days agoDemocratic Sen. Jon Ossoff has a sizable lead over his Republican opponent Rep. Mike Collins in the Georgia Senate race, according to new polling from The Atlanta Journal-Constitution. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution Washington Bureau…
Full interview with Juliana Stratton, Illinois Democratic candidate for U.S. SenateCBS News · 39 h agoCBS News Chicago is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as WBBM-TV and CBS2, CBS News Chicago offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. Full interview with…
Full interview with Don Tracy, Illinois Republican candidate for U.S. SenateCBS News · 39 h agoCBS News Chicago political reporter Chris Tye sat down with former Illinois Republican Party chairman Don Tracy, the Republican candidate for U.S. Senate in the 2026 midterm elections, to discuss his candidacy and priorities. Full…
U.S. Senate race spotlight: Juliana Stratton vs. Don Tracy in IllinoisCBS News · 40 h agoIn less than two weeks, Illinois voters will decide who will replace longtime U.S. Sen. Dick Durbin, who is retiring after 30 years in office. The two candidates to replace him, Democratic Illinois Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton and former…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onWhite House, Library of Congress

Trading closesJan 1, 2027 10:00 AM ET

Traded$726 (10,463 contracts)

Today$1

This week$726

At stake$336

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If a reconciliation bill has passed the Senate after Issuance and before Sep 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Prices it is about

BILL Holdings, Inc.BILL · about the company50.70+0.06%

From 4Conservative Finance. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.