Will a cabinet member be impeached? (Before Jan 20, 2029)

Kalshi Politics › Congress Closes Jan 20, 2029 · $138 today · $39.3K traded · $17.1K at stake · prices read 2 h ago

The odds

Jun 15, 2027even chance by
  • Before Jan 1, 20277%▲ 1
  • Before Apr 1, 202735%
  • Before Jul 1, 202754%▲ 1
  • Before Oct 1, 202764%▲ 1
  • Before Jan 1, 202866%
  • Before Jan 20, 202979%▲ 3

How the odds have moved

Before Apr 1, 2027: 21% on Oct 20, 35% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
Before Jan 1, 2027 7% ▲ 1 4¢ 10¢ $10.10 57.5K
Before Apr 1, 2027 35% 32¢ 37¢ $2.70 2.1K
Before Jul 1, 2027 54% ▲ 1 50¢ 57¢ $1.75 1.6K
Before Oct 1, 2027 64% ▲ 1 60¢ 68¢ $1.47 497
Before Jan 1, 2028 66% 65¢ 66¢ $1.52 41.6K
Before Jan 20, 2029 79% ▲ 3 76¢ 82¢ $1.22 7.6K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: impeachment

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  • Impeachment is back on the menuPOLITICO · 31 h agoThe unofficial guide to official Washington, every morning and weekday afternoons. 10/21/2026 01:40 PM EDT Impeachment dominated much of Donald Trump’s first presidency. Voters think it should come back for a sequel. Half of Americans…
  • Madagascar coup leader sworn in as president after Andry Rajoelina impeached amid "Gen Z" protestsCBS News · 2 days agoOctober 17, 2025 / 8:52 AM EDT / CBS News Johannesburg — Large crowds gathered Friday in Madagascar's capital city to watch the leader of the African island nation's recent military coup be sworn in as its new president. Col. Michael…
  • Impeach Trump Y/N?Slate Magazine · 37 h agoAdvertisement Listen & Subscribe Choose your preferred player: Apple Podcasts Spotify TuneIn Pocket Casts RSS Feed For questions about subscriptions or your Slate Plus feed, check our FAQ. Please enable javascript to get your Slate Plus…
  • I.N.D.I.A bloc plans mock Parliament, CEC impeachmentThe Sunday Guardian · 23 h agoWith the Congress led INDIA bloc set to hold a massive public meeting titled ‘Vote Bachao, Desh Bachao’ on November 1 over alleged vote chori and its demand for the removal of Chief Election Commissioner Gyanesh Kumar and scrapping of the…
  • Trump Impeachment ‘Theater’ Loses Steam with LeftPolitical Wire · 30 h agoJust dropped · Trial Balloon · Ep. 192 “Progressive House members and candidates are taking a stark turn away from what they describe as ‘performative’ efforts to impeach President Trump,” Axios reports. “This is a drastic shift in tone…
  • INDIA bloc to hold ‘public impeachment’ of CEC on Oct 30MillenniumPost · 19 h agoLeaders of the opposition INDIA Bloc will hold a “public impeachment” of Chief Election Commissioner Gyanesh Kumar on October 30 and announce a public verdict against him. The “mock Parliament” would be held at Hotel Ashok, where all…
  • House Dems Target Hegseth for Impeachment if They Win MidtermsAmerican Greatness · 35 h agoHouse Democrats are already plotting to impeach Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth if they regain control of Congress in November, making the Trump administration official a top target of their anticipated return to power. While Democratic…
  • House Democrats Target Hegseth for ImpeachmentPolitical Wire · 2 days agoJust dropped · Trial Balloon · Ep. 192 “House Democrats are setting their political sights on Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, pushing for his removal as the first spoils from anticipated wins in the midterm election,” the Wall Street…
  • INDIA Bloc to Hold ‘Public Impeachment’ of CEC on October 30deccanchronicle.com · 26 h agoThe \"mock Parliament\" would be held at Hotel Ashok, where all opposition MPs and top leaders would be present, it is learnt.
  • Democrats Warn Economy — Not Impeachment — Should Drive AgendaThe Washington Sun · 2 days ago“Costs are number one, two, three, four and five” on the to-do list, one Democratic operative said. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries are developing an agenda in the event that Democrats win…
  • New Democratic voices cool on Trump impeachment pushenmnews.com · 2 days agoFor years, impeachment was one of the loudest weapons in the Democratic arsenal against Donald Trump. Now, a new crop of progressives is sounding far less eager to turn it into a reflex. That shift is showing up in public comments from…
  • Ilhan Omar hires Biden’s former personal lawyer, Trump impeachment attorney amid immigration probeMEAWW News · 16 h agoWASHINGTON, DC: Democratic Rep Ilhan Omar (D-Minn) has hired two prominent Washington lawyers with ties to former President Joe Biden and the congressional investigations into President Donald Trump as federal authorities examine her…

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions