Texas Senate winner? (2026)
63%James Talarico
- James Talarico63%▲ 1
- Ken Paxton38%▼ 1
Install
Next Senate Democratic Leader? (2028)
The odds
82%Chuck Schumer
- Chuck Schumer82%▲ 1
- Brian Schatz6%
- Chris Murphy6%▼ 1
- Chris Van Hollen5%
- Patty Murray2%
- Cory Booker1%
- Amy Klobuchar1%
- Raphael Warnock1%
- Jacky Rosen1%
- Mark Warner1%
- Tammy Baldwin1%
- Jon Ossoff1%
1 more
- Ruben Gallego1%
How the odds have moved
Chuck Schumer: 81% on Oct 20, 82% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chuck Schumer | 82% | ▲ 1 | 82¢ | 84¢ | $1.19 | 28.9K |
| Brian Schatz | 6% | 5¢ | 9¢ | $11.63 | 24.4K | |
| Chris Murphy | 6% | ▼ 1 | 3¢ | 10¢ | $10.20 | 36.6K |
| Chris Van Hollen | 5% | 5¢ | 6¢ | $17.24 | 20.0K | |
| Patty Murray | 2% | 2¢ | 3¢ | $40.00 | 9.2K | |
| Cory Booker | 1% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $62.50 | 4.2K | |
| Amy Klobuchar | 1% | 0¢ | 2¢ | $55.56 | 6.5K | |
| Raphael Warnock | 1% | 0¢ | 2¢ | $62.50 | 2.0K | |
| Jacky Rosen | 1% | 0¢ | 2¢ | $66.67 | 159 | |
| Mark Warner | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | $100.00 | 136 | |
| Tammy Baldwin | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | $100.00 | 10.3K | |
| Jon Ossoff | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | $100.00 | 749 | |
| Ruben Gallego | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | $100.00 | 259 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Senate Democratic Leader, Chuck Schumer, Brian Schatz
Search ›No recent headlines name this market's subject.
Related markets
All senate ›2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
63%Democrats sweep
- Democrats sweep63%▲ 1
- D-House, R-Senate27%▼ 1
- Republicans sweep10%▼ 1
1 more
- R-House, D-Senate1%
Which party will win the U.S. Senate? (2026)
64%Democratic Party
- Democratic Party64%▲ 1
- Republican Party37%▼ 2
Texas Senate Election Winner
63%James Talarico (D)
- James Talarico (D)63%
- Ken Paxton (R)37%▼ 2
Who wins the Senate pending oil below $85 before the midterms?
58%Oil ≥ $85; D Senate
- Oil ≥ $85; D Senate58%▼ 1
- Oil ≥ $85; R Senate29%▼ 2
- Oil < $85; D Senate5%▼ 2
1 more
- Oil < $85; R Senate3%
Michigan Senate winner? (2026)
68%Abdul El-Sayed
- Abdul El-Sayed68%▼ 1
- Mike Rogers32%▼ 1
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.