Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?
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Will the American Affordability and Jobs Act become law? (Before Mar 1, 2027)
The odds
Feb 10, 2027even chance by
- Before Jan 1, 202739%
- Before Mar 1, 202756%
How the odds have moved
Before Jan 1, 2027: 40% on Oct 19, 39% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 39% | 34¢ | 43¢ | $2.33 | 609 | |
| Before Mar 1, 2027 | 56% | 52¢ | 59¢ | $1.69 | 243 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: American Affordability and Jobs Act
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The Impacts of the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act of 2026Earthjustice serves hundreds of public-interest clients, providing top-tier legal representation free of charge — and we win. Because the earth needs a good lawyer. A look at how the bill’s provisions would affect electric transmission… -
Trump Targets $6.2 Billion Offshore Wind Project Nearing CompletionU.S. Dips Into Strategic Oil Reserve Again Amid Supply Disruptions Energy bills are expected to… Delayed offshore wind projects are… Policy adjustments are now improving… The recent filing states, “The Department of the Interior agrees… -
Congress has a chance to address climate change and lower energy costs. They should take it. | Jack LohrBy Jack Lohr - There’s a new bipartisan bill in Congress that will significantly reduce emissions, speed up clean energy, and lower energy costs for us here in New Jersey. The Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act is a… -
Can a bill on Capitol Hill tackle data center concerns in San Diego?Rep. Scott Peters, D-San Diego, is stumping for an energy transmission and permitting bill on Capitol Hill that supporters want to take up in the upcoming lame duck session of Congress — and Peters says part of the expansive legislation… - Trump Administration Clears Wind Projects In Maine, South Dakota To Save Permitting DealThe legislation at stake, the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act of 2026, would make it easier to permit transmission projects and would amend the Clean Water Act and the National Environmental Policy Act, according to…
- DOJ moves to revoke offshore wind permits, potentially threatening Senate permitting billSen. Sheldon Whitehouse, D-R.I., one of the senators sponsoring the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act, said in a statement, “this is how you blow up a permitting deal.” Revolution Wind is a 50/50 venture between Ørsted and…
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Metals industry associations join call for permitting reformThe Aluminum Association and the Steel Manufacturers Association are among those calling for action on the bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act. By DeAnne Toto, Editorial Director “America is entering a new era of energy demand,”… - Opinion: Utah’s energy future demands bipartisan action on permittingUtah faces a critical moment. As the state and country face unprecedented energy demand and rising costs, there is a real opportunity to strengthen America’s infrastructure: the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act. This…
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The Costs of Delaying Implementation of the EU Methane RegulationPresident Donald Trump has blamed Ukraine for surging diesel prices that are hurting Republicans' election chances with the midterms just two weeks away. Insights from the Center on Global Energy Policy Blog by Tim Boersma & Anne-Sophie… -
The energy industry’s post-midterms priority listThere are three transformational decisions that could follow in the weeks after votes are cast. Jim Kapsis is the founder and CEO of The Ad Hoc Group, and previously was the VP of market development at Opower, as well as an official in the… -
Permitting Deal Turns Into a Street FightThe Senate’s fragile permitting package has triggered a broad and determined lobbying campaign, with energy companies, trade groups, environmental organizations and manufacturers all pressing their case as lawmakers weigh the measure’s… - This bill would make data centers pay their own way for powerFollowing months of public backlash against data centers across Utah, Sen. Mike Lee co-authored the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act of 2026 — which would hold data center developers responsible for energy costs. Creekstone…
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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions