Will Reza Pahlavi visit Iran in 2026?

Kalshi World › Middle East Closes Jan 1, 2027 · $62 today · $111K traded · $38.3K at stake · prices read 3 min ago

The odds

5%chance

How the odds have moved

Yes: 5% on Oct 20, 5% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Yes	5%		5¢	5¢	$19.23	2.2M

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Iran, Reza Pahlavi

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Belgian Parliament Foreign Affairs Chief Opposes Invitation to Reza Pahlavi, Warns Against Taking Sides in Iran???s OppositionIran News Update · 3 days agoEls Van Hoof argues that giving the son of Iran’s last shah an official parliamentary platform could be interpreted as Belgian support for one faction, stressing that Iranians themselves must determine their country’s democratic future…
129 Iranians in Europe Protest Friedrich Naumann Foundation???s Freedom Prize for Reza PahlaviIran News Update · 3 days agoAn open letter challenges the decision to honor the son of Iran’s former shah, citing organized violence by monarchist supporters against Iranian dissidents in exile and warning against the revival of the Shah’s repressive security…
House of Representatives will not invite Iranian Reza PahlaviBelgaShare.be · 5 days agoMR leader Georges-Louis Bouchez met the opposition figure in Paris at the end of July. He wanted to invite Pahlavi to Brussels. The matter was discussed for the first time last week, but the Conference of Presidents decided to seek advice…
Iran DOUBLING DOWN on nuclear ambitions: ReportFox News · 23 h agoFox News senior strategic analyst Jack Keane discusses reports that Iran is rebuilding its nuclear program during 'Sunday Morning Futures.' ... Iran DOUBLING DOWN on nuclear ambitions: Report Fox News senior strategic analyst Jack Keane…
Iran in 'ADVANCED STAGES' of planned attacks on AmericansFox News · 5 h agoFormer Secretary of State Mike Pompeo reacts to a memo about potential Iranian attacks on Americans, the reported threats to U.S. interests abroad and the American military presence in the region. Iran in 'ADVANCED STAGES' of planned…
Trump RIPS Obama: Iran thought he was a SUCKER!Fox News · 24 h agoPresident Donald Trump sharply criticized Barack Obama's previous JCPOA deal with Iran, calling it the 'worst and dumbest deal' he has ever seen. Trump RIPS Obama: Iran thought he was a SUCKER! President Donald Trump sharply criticized…
New threats could push US and Iran toward warsemafor.com · 19 h agoThe US director of national intelligence warned that Iran was in the “advanced stages” of planning attacks against American officials abroad, prompting personnel evacuations and heightening the risk of a return to all-out war. US President…
Iran ramping up efforts to target Americans, intelligence warnsFox News · 19 h ago‘The Big Weekend Show’ co-hosts discuss President Donald Trump’s options for dealing with Iran as intelligence warns the regime may be ramping up efforts to target Americans. Iran ramping up efforts to target Americans, intelligence warns…
Andrew Harding analyzes European protests and Trump's strategy on IranFox News · 8 h agoNational security policy analyst Andrew Harding joins 'Fox & Friends First' to discuss massive protests sweeping across Europe and Trump weighing his next steps regarding the Iran deal. Andrew Harding analyzes European protests and Trump's…
A Netanyahu defeat would make Iran war harder for the U.S.CNBC · 10 h agoDania Arayssi, Senior Analyst at New Lines Institute explains how a Netanyahu election loss could significantly complicate a U.S. intervention in Iran, as Washington relies heavily on Israeli intelligence and partnership to avoid entering…
US has plans for major Iran strikes if Trump choosesCNN · 13 h agoUS forces in the Middle East are prepared to launch new, potentially major, military operations against Iran “within 96 hours of receiving” an order from President Donald Trump, according to two US officials. “It will be a big effort,” one…
Iran may be rebuilding nuclear sites, satellite images revealFox News · 25 h agoFox News senior strategic analyst Jack Keane discusses reports of Iran rebuilding its nuclear facilities, President Donald Trump's options for confronting Tehran and more. Iran may be rebuilding nuclear sites, satellite images reveal Fox…

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Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

19%chance▼ 1

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onThe Guardian, local news outlets with verifiable mastheads in Iran, Reza Pahlavi

Trading closesJan 1, 2027 10:00 AM ET

Traded$111K (2,151,080 contracts)

Today$62

At stake$38.3K

In the news421 headlines today, 4,411 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If Reza Pahlavi has physically travelled to and been present within the geographic boundaries of Iran before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions