Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?

Kalshi World › Middle East Closes Jan 1, 2027 · $49 today · $88.6K traded · $24.5K at stake · prices read 21 min ago

The odds

5%chance

How the odds have moved

Yes: 5% on Oct 20, 5% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
Yes 5% 4¢ 5¢ $20.00 2.0M

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Iran, Reza Pahlavi

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  • House of Representatives will not invite Iranian Reza PahlaviBelgaShare.be · 4 days agoMR leader Georges-Louis Bouchez met the opposition figure in Paris at the end of July. He wanted to invite Pahlavi to Brussels. The matter was discussed for the first time last week, but the Conference of Presidents decided to seek advice…
  • Iran executes man over alleged links to Israel and Reza PahlaviHuman Right Activists In Iran · 7 days agoAzernews – Iran executes man over alleged links to Israel and Reza Pahlavi Iran has executed Ali Sina Mostafavi, a 38-year-old mountaineer and musician from the southeastern city of Bam in Kerman province, over allegations of carrying out…
  • Iran is not bowing to pressureThe Washington Post · 2 days agoBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. Reuel Marc Gerecht is…
  • Barack Obama Slams Donald Trump, Pete Hegseth Over Iran WarNewsweek · 28 h agoOct 24, 2026 at 04:01 PM EDT Oct 24, 2026 at 04:08 PM EDT Former President Barack Obama criticized President Donald Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth on Saturday over the war with Iran, calling the administration “not serious…
  • US Intel warns Iran boosting efforts to target Americans in MideastNew York Post · 27 h agoIran has ramped up efforts to target Americans overseas, with lethal plots reaching “advanced stages” as the Trump administration weighs renewed military strikes against Tehran, new intelligence is warning. Director of National…
  • Trump’s Iran sanctions run into limitssemafor.com · 2 days agoThe Trump administration is steadily ratcheting up pressure on Iran with sanctions, but experts and former officials say the penalties thus far are having a limited effect on the Islamic Republic’s willingness to negotiate. Nate Swanson…
  • Iran has "increased efforts to target U.S. personnel," intel chief warnsCBS News · 38 h agoOctober 23, 2026 / 11:13 PM EDT / CBS News Director of National Intelligence Jay Clayton warned Friday that Iran has "substantially increased efforts to target U.S. personnel" abroad, with plots to kill Americans reaching "advanced stages"…
  • Iran remains open to talks with US under Pakistan-brokered deal, envoy saysThe Washington Post · 25 h agoBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. ISLAMABAD — Iran…
  • Iran war fever is rising again. The battlespace has changed.The Washington Post · 46 h agoBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. War fever is spiking…
  • Iran ramps up efforts to target US personnel overseas, intelligence memo revealsFox News · 35 h agoA U.S. intelligence memo warns that Iran has intensified efforts to target Americans abroad, with lethal plots reaching "advanced stages" as the State Department adjusts embassy staffing amid escalating security threats in the Middle East…
  • U.S. ambassador to U.N. says Iran war could last another yearCBS News · 41 h agoCBS News is a trusted source for the latest in politics, U.S. and world news. The network is home to award-winning broadcasts CBS Mornings, CBS Evening News, 60 Minutes, CBS Sunday Morning, 48 Hours and Face the Nation. Waltz says Iran war…
  • The lies ‘never end’ with the Iranian regime: Israeli special ops veteranFox Business · 43 h agoIsraeli special ops veteran Aaron Cohen joins ‘Kudlow’ to discuss President Donald Trump's warnings to Iran amid concerns over the regime's efforts to rebuild its nuclear program. Cohen also discusses reports of potential joint…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 5 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions