Oscar nominees: Achievement in Casting (2027)

Kalshi Culture › Awards Closes Dec 31, 2027 · $38 today · $12.8K traded · $6.2K at stake · prices read 47 min ago

The odds

85%The Black Ball

The Black Ball85%
The Odyssey84%
Wild Horse Nine79%
The Debut46%▲ 1
Being Heumann44%
The Invite34%▲ 1
Obsession27%
Fjord25%▲ 5
Dune: Part Three24%▲ 1
All of a Sudden17%
Digger15%
Michael13%▼ 1

5 more

Project Hail Mary11%
Clarissa8%
UNABOMBER8%
Cry to Heaven6%
Saturn Return4%

How the odds have moved

The Black Ball: 84% on Oct 20, 85% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
The Black Ball	85%		80¢	89¢	$1.12	1.5K
The Odyssey	84%		82¢	85¢	$1.18	4.5K
Wild Horse Nine	79%		77¢	80¢	$1.25	2.8K
The Debut	46%	▲ 1	43¢	49¢	$2.04	2.1K
Being Heumann	44%		41¢	47¢	$2.13	3.0K
The Invite	34%	▲ 1	31¢	37¢	$2.70	890
Obsession	27%		24¢	29¢	$3.45	3.5K
Fjord	25%	▲ 5	21¢	29¢	$3.45	2.3K
Dune: Part Three	24%	▲ 1	20¢	28¢	$3.57	2.1K
All of a Sudden	17%		13¢	21¢	$4.76	433
Digger	15%		11¢	19¢	$5.26	3.1K
Michael	13%	▼ 1	10¢	16¢	$6.25	1.9K
Project Hail Mary	11%		6¢	15¢	$6.67	29.00
Clarissa	8%		3¢	12¢	$8.33	1.5K
UNABOMBER	8%		3¢	12¢	$8.33	511
Cry to Heaven	6%		2¢	10¢	$10.00	1.2K
Saturn Return	4%		1¢	7¢	$14.29	529

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Oscars, Academy Awards, Oscar

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'You Can 'You Can See Everything' Oscar Chances Are Real Everything' Oscar Chances On The RiseDeadline · 5 days agoSPOILER ALERT: The following article contains details about storylines and characters/actors in A24‘s documentary You Can See Everything. Ever since its super-secret onetime screening at the Telluride Film Festival over Labor Day weekend…
FULL LIST: Nominees for 2026 Africa Movie Academy AwardsNollywood Life · 4 days agoHome » FULL LIST: Nominees for 2026 Africa Movie Academy Awards The nominations for the 22nd edition of the Africa Movie Academy Awards were announced on Saturday, October 17, 2026, during a livestream on the awards’ official YouTube…
W&M film studies alumnus wins Student Academy AwardW&M Alumni Magazine · 5 days agoOctober 19, 2026 By Rebecca Ries '27 The following story originally appeared on the website for W&M’s College of Arts & Sciences. As Arjun Fischer ’20 was waiting on the tarmac in Virginia to fly back to Los Angeles, where he currently…
European Film Producers Say Oscar Contender ‘La Bola Negra’ Shows Taking Big Risks Can Pay OffThe Hollywood Reporter · 5 days ago“We have to take risks,” Domingo Corral, a producer of Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo's gay epic and Netflix's award season contender, told the MIA Market in Rome. Italian and Spanish film and TV producers long used to exploring the…
Is ‘Redacted’ Eligible For An Academy Award For Their Surprise Role In ‘You Can See Everything’?BroBible · 5 days agoTaylor Hill/FilmMagic | A24 A surprise performance in 'You Can See Everything' is earning Oscar shouts A surprise performance in the back half of Nathan Fielder’s splashy Elizabeth Holmes documentary You Can See Everything is being hailed…
Globo, Netflix Strike Biggest Licensing Deal Between the Two Companies, Led by Walter Salles’ Oscar Winner ‘I’m Still Here’ (EXCLUSIVE)Variety · 5 days agoKicking in from December, the deal sees 18 wide-ranging Globo titles, including International Emmy Winner 'India – A Love Story,' hitting Netflix in Brazil or worldwide When the going gets tough, the tough get together: Brazil’s Globo…
Val Chmerkovskiy suspended from 'Dancing With the Stars' over Will Smith Oscars slap referenceFox News · 6 days agoThe "Dancing with the Stars" co-host spoke with Fox News Digital as she walked the Emmy Awards red carpet. Val Chmerkovskiy has been suspended from "Dancing With the Stars" after appearing to reference Will Smith’s infamous Oscars slap in…
Oscar winner shares the math ‘the parties pray you never do’ before midtermsNew York Post · 4 days agoMatthew McConaughey’s call to rethink America’s two-party political system has sparked a heated debate on social media, with some critics accusing the Oscar-winning actor of promoting a “privileged perspective” ahead of the 2026 midterm…
Why ‘You Can See Everything’ Can Win Best Picture at the OscarsVariety · 4 days agoThe Elizabeth Holmes doc "You Can See Everything" is almost certain to nail a best picture nomination at the Oscars. Here’s why it could win. Why ‘You Can See Everything’ Can Win Best Picture at the Oscars The word disruptor is a vividly…
Oscar Predictions via Feinberg Forecast: Scott’s Mid-October Charts and Dissection of the RaceThe Hollywood Reporter · 5 days agoThe Hollywood Reporter's executive editor of awards offers his latest assessment following a slew of film festivals, the theatrical unveilings of 'You Can See Everything' and 'La Bola Negra,' the Academy Museum Gala at which Taylor Swift…
‘You Can See Everything’ Sets Oscar Campaigns for Best Picture, Supporting Actress and More CategoriesVariety · 5 days agoSPOILER ALERT: This article contains major spoilers for “You Can See Everything,” now playing in theaters. “You Can See Everything” may rewrite the rules of the Oscar season. Christopher Abbott, who also appears in the film as Holmes’…
Oscars 2026: Everything to know about the 98th Academy AwardsABC News · 7 days agoOn Sunday, March 15, the 98th Academy Awards will celebrate everything from the year's best acting and best directing to the top films from the past year, including "Hamnet," "Marty Supreme," "Sinners" and more. Just days before the show…

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Culture › Awards

Oscars 2027: Best Picture Winner

44%The Odyssey

The Odyssey44%▲ 1
You Can See Everything28%▲ 6
La Bola Negra13%▼ 5

24 more

Dune: Part Three7%▼ 3
Digger3%▼ 1
Wild Horse Nine1%▼ 1
Artificial<1%
The Invite<1%
Project Hail Mary<1%
The Drama<1%
The Debut<1%
The Adventures of Cliff Booth<1%
Behemoth!<1%
Josephine<1%
Tony<1%
Fjord<1%
The Social Reckoning<1%
Obsession<1%
I Play Rocky<1%
Elsinore<1%
Saturn Return<1%
All of a Sudden<1%
Clarissa<1%
Disclosure Day<1%
Fatherland<1%
Michael<1%
Avengers: Doomsday<1%

Culture › Awards

Oscars 2027: Best Picture Nominations

97%The Odyssey

The Odyssey97%
La Bola Negra95%
Wild Horse Nine91%▼ 1

19 more

Dune: Part Three88%▲ 4
You Can See Everything81%▲ 9
Project Hail Mary77%
The Debut77%▼ 1
The Invite61%▲ 2
I Play Rocky45%▲ 3
All of a Sudden38%▲ 1
Fjord36%▲ 2
Obsession31%▼ 3
Elsinore31%
The Adventures of Cliff Booth24%▲ 3
Digger19%
Behemoth!18%▲ 1
Michael11%
Avengers: Doomsday7%▼ 2
Disclosure Day5%
Fatherland4%▼ 1
The Drama3%
The Social Reckoning2%▼ 3

Culture › Awards

Oscars 2027: Best Production Design Nominations

96%The Black Ball

The Black Ball96%
The Odyssey85%▼ 1
Project Hail Mary68%▲ 7

8 more

Dune: Part Three63%▼ 5
Digger63%▼ 1
Werwulf47%▼ 11
Sense and Sensibility37%▼ 3
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth20%▲ 1
Backrooms17%▼ 1
Wuthering Heights5%▼ 8
Wildwood4%

Culture › Awards

Oscars 2027: Best Cinematography Nominations

94%The Odyssey

The Odyssey94%
Dune: Part Three92%
Project Hail Mary69%▲ 8

6 more

Fatherland40%▼ 13
Werwulf35%▼ 21
Digger30%▲ 5
Obsession15%▼ 1
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth15%
Josephine12%▼ 1

Culture › Awards

Oscars 2027: Best Director Winner

57%Christopher Nolan

Christopher Nolan57%▼ 4
Javier Calvo or Javier Ambrossi12%▼ 3
Lance Oppenheim12%▲ 8

18 more

Denis Villeneuve12%▼ 3
Alejandro G. Iñárritu1%▼ 1
Martin McDonagh1%
Olivia Wilde1%
Aaron Sorkin1%
Cristian Mungiu1%
Steven Spielberg<1%
Phil Lord or Christopher Miller<1%▼ 1
Jesse Eisenberg<1%
Andrew Haigh<1%
David Fincher<1%
Peter Farrelly<1%▼ 2
Ryusuke Hamaguchi<1%
Jordan Firstman<1%
Bassam Tariq<1%
David O. Russell<1%▼ 1
Joel Coen<1%▼ 1
Mike Leigh<1%▼ 1

Culture › Awards

The Game Awards: Game of the Year

84%Grand Theft Auto VI

Grand Theft Auto VI84%▲ 3
Resident Evil Requiem9%▲ 1
Phantom Blade Zero3%

21 more

Control Resonant1%▼ 3
Pragmata1%
Slay the Spire 21%
Marvel's Wolverine1%▼ 1
007 First Light1%
Crimson Desert<1%
Onimusha: Way of the Sword<1%
Esoteric Ebb<1%
Half-Life 3<1%
Fable<1%
Saros<1%
The Duskbloods<1%
Marathon<1%
Stranger Than Heaven<1%
Cairn<1%
Nioh 3<1%
Forza Horizon 6<1%
Mouse: P.I. For Hire<1%
Gears of War: E-Day<1%
Reanimal<1%
Exodus<1%

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onAcademy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences

Trading closesDec 31, 2027 10:00 AM ET

Traded$12.8K (31,942 contracts)

Today$38

This week$12.8K

At stake$6.2K

In the news34 headlines today, 351 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If Being Heumann has been nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.