Brazil Presidential Election
66%Flávio Bolsonaro
- Flávio Bolsonaro66%▼ 17
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva34%▲ 17
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How many states will redistrict before the midterms? (before the 2026 midterms)
The odds
8.05median
7.5012.5
Median 8.05Middle half 7.77 – 8.32
How the odds have moved
Median: 8.06 on Oct 20, 8.05 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Below 8 | 91% | 92¢ | 98¢ | $1.02 | 5.7K | |
| 8 | 1% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 2.8K | |
| 9 | 2% | 2¢ | 3¢ | $33.33 | 4.4K | |
| 10 | 1% | 2¢ | $50.00 | 3.6K | ||
| 11 | 1% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 2.7K | |
| 12 | 1% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 2.0K | |
| Above 12 | 1% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 2.2K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news
No recent headlines name this market's subject.
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Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory
47%Flávio Bolsonaro <4%
- Flávio Bolsonaro <4%47%▲ 12
- Lula da Silva <4%30%▲ 16
- Flávio Bolsonaro 4-8%18%▼ 26
5 more
- Lula da Silva 4-8%2%▲ 2
- Flávio Bolsonaro 8-12%2%▼ 3
- Flávio Bolsonaro 12%+<1%▼ 1
- Lula da Silva 8-12%<1%
- Lula da Silva 12%+<1%
Brazil Presidential election winner?
66%Flávio Bolsonaro
- Flávio Bolsonaro66%▼ 17
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva34%▲ 17
Israeli Legislative Election Winner
68%Yashar
- Yashar68%▼ 2
- Likud31%▲ 3
- Together<1%
3 more
- Shas<1%
- The Democrats<1%
- Otzma Yehudit<1%
Which party will win the House in 2026?
92%Democratic Party
- Democratic Party92%
- Republican Party9%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions