Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
66%Democrats Sweep
- Democrats Sweep66%▼ 1
- R Senate, D House25%▲ 1
- Republicans Sweep7%
2 more
- D Senate, R House1%▼ 1
- Other<1%
Install
Who will switch or leave their party in 2026?
The odds
11%John Fetterman
- John Fetterman11%▲ 1
- Lisa Murkowski10%▲ 1
- Thomas Massie6%
- Don Bacon3%
- Henry Cuellar3%
How the odds have moved
John Fetterman: 9% on Oct 20, 11% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ✓ Marjorie Taylor Greene | 20% | $5.00 | 50.7K | |||
| John Fetterman | 11% | ▲ 1 | 9¢ | 12¢ | $8.33 | 59.9K |
| Lisa Murkowski | 10% | ▲ 1 | 8¢ | 12¢ | $8.33 | 31.1K |
| Thomas Massie | 6% | 4¢ | 8¢ | $12.50 | 13.1K | |
| Don Bacon | 3% | 1¢ | 5¢ | $21.74 | 9.8K | |
| Henry Cuellar | 3% | 1¢ | 4¢ | $22.73 | 8.8K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: John Fetterman, Lisa Murkowski, Thomas Massie
Search ›-
Lisa Murkowski could turn into the GOP’s Joe ManchinWashington Examiner Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) has served in the Senate since 2002, in George W. Bush’s first term as president. She was appointed to the seat by her father, Frank Murkowski, after he was elected governor of Alaska. Since… -
Democrats are eyeing a John Fetterman challenge. Chris Deluzio is already laying the groundwork.The House Democrat is “seriously” considering launching a primary campaign against the senator he supported four years ago. Reps. Chris Deluzio (D-Pa.), left, and Summer Lee (D-Pa.) tour Module, a Pittsburgh-based company that provides… -
Opinion | Representative Thomas Massie should name Epstein files namesDuring his Oct. 17 campaign rally in Kentucky, President Trump trashed Republican Representative Thomas Massie in the district that the congressman has represented since 2013. “Massie, the worst, what happened to him by the way? Haven’t… -
'Very soon': Thomas Massie is coming for Pete Hegseth with 8 articles of impeachment as Dems eye House majorityRep. Thomas Massie is preparing to bring eight articles of impeachment against Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth before the House of Representatives, accusing him of waging unauthorized wars, violating constitutional limits on military power… -
‘Come join us,’ former GOP Pa. lawmaker urges John Fetterman to switch partiesA former Republican state lawmaker has joined the chorus of those encouraging Democratic Sen. John Fetterman to switch parties. Matthew Dowling of Fayette County, who served three terms in the House before a driving under the influence… - How John Fetterman could save republicans if Democrats win the Senate.The Greatest News Site On The Internet. Home of CFP Nation. Go To Article -- reason.com Posted by Kane on October 22, 2026 4:44 pmNEWS JUNKIES -- CHECK OUT OUR HOMEPAGE < CITIZEN FREE PRESS -- HOMEPAGE
- Senate Rejects Iran War Powers Bill, 49-50 VoteThe U.S. Senate rejected a war powers resolution aimed at curbing President Donald Trump's war with Iran, failing by a single vote, 49-50. Three Republicans — Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, Rand Paul of Kentucky and Susan Collins of Maine —…
- Fundraising Update: Senator John Fetterman just disclosed $424.1K of new fundraisingSenator John Fetterman just disclosed $424.1K of fundraising in a Q3 FEC disclosure filed on October 15th, 2026. This is the 300th most from all Q3 reports we have seen from politicians so far this year. 99.6% came from individual donors…
-
How John Fetterman spends his time comes under more scrutiny as he weighs future in the SenateWASHINGTON — Six days after I-95 collapsed in Northeast Philadelphia, U.S. Sen. John Fetterman grabbed a lectern emblazoned with the presidential seal and began what would be his last public remarks in Philadelphia for the next three… -
Trump calls Rep. Thomas Massie 'a loser' and says Ed Gallrein is 'fantastic'WHAS11 Trump calls Rep. Thomas Massie 'a loser' and says Ed Gallrein is 'fantastic' To stream WHAS11 on your phone, you need the WHAS11 app. Download the WHAS11 app Next up in 5 Example video title will go here for this video Before You… -
Republicans defeat Democratic bids to hear witnesses in Trump trialThe votes represented a major victory for McConnell and Trump. Republicans defeat Democratic bids to hear witnesses in Trump trial The votes represented a major victory for McConnell and Trump. The Senate on Friday narrowly rejected… -
Murkowski on war-driven energy prices: 'It is wrong.'Matt Faubion/Alaska Public Media Sen. Lisa Murkowski speaks to the Alaska Federation of Natives in Anchorage on Thursday. Sen. Lisa Murkowski told the Alaska Federation of Natives Convention that high energy prices are this year’s crisis…
Related markets
All elections ›Brazil Presidential Election
83%Flávio Bolsonaro
- Flávio Bolsonaro83%▲ 7
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva17%▼ 7
Texas Senate winner? (2026)
64%James Talarico
- James Talarico64%▼ 2
- Ken Paxton36%▲ 1
Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory
39%Flávio Bolsonaro <4%
- Flávio Bolsonaro <4%39%▼ 1
- Flávio Bolsonaro 4-8%36%▲ 6
- Lula da Silva <4%14%▼ 7
5 more
- Flávio Bolsonaro 8-12%7%▲ 1
- Flávio Bolsonaro 12%+2%▲ 1
- Lula da Silva 4-8%1%
- Lula da Silva 8-12%<1%
- Lula da Silva 12%+<1%
Which party will win the House in 2026?
92%Democratic Party
- Democratic Party92%▼ 1
- Republican Party9%▲ 1
Serbia Parliamentary Election Winner
70%Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia
- Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia70%▼ 1
- Student List – Students Win29%▼ 1
- Ivica Dačić – Factor of Stability!<1%
7 more
- Rasim Ljajić – Humane (SDP – CDP)<1%
- Alliance of Vojvodina Hungarians – Dr Bálint Pásztor<1%
- Usame Zukorlić Movement for Unification<1%
- Russian Party – Serbia in BRICS – Slobodan Nikolić<1%
- Authentic Right – Dr Miloš Jovanović<1%
- European Serbia – Marinika Tepić, Zdravko Ponoš<1%
- SDA of Sandžak – Guardians of Sandžak<1%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.