Montgomery County, TX Judge winner? (2026)

Kalshi Elections Closes Nov 3, 2027 · $11.1K traded · $7K at stake · prices read 48 min ago

The odds

95%Mark Keough

Mark Keough95%▼ 3
James Graf4%▲ 1

How the odds have moved

Mark Keough: 96% on Oct 20, 95% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Mark Keough	95%	▼ 3	92¢	98¢	$1.02	11.6K
James Graf	4%	▲ 1	1¢	7¢	$14.29	2.5K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Montgomery County, TX Judge, Mark Keough

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Texas midterm election 2026: Montgomery County sample ballots, key racesFOX 26 Houston · 3 days agoCONROE, Texas - Before you head to the polls for the Nov. 3 election in Texas, you can see your sample ballot to find out what you will be voting on. Here's what's on the ballot in Montgomery County, plus what you need to take with you to…
Montgomery County Walmart employee shot and killed in parking lot | PHL17 Morning NewsYahoo News · 3 days agoA woman was shot and killed in the parking lot of a Walmart in Montgomery County.Police are still looking for the shooter.The Montgomery County DA's office said the 45-year-old woman was actually an employee of the Walmart. She was gunned…
Early voting begins at 14 centers in Montgomery CountyMontgomery Community Media · 4 days agoEarly voting started Thursday at 14 centers in Montgomery County and continues through Thursday, Oct. 29 including Saturday and Sunday. “People should exercise their constitutional right to vote,” Montgomery County Board of Elections…
Almost 15,000 ballots so far in Montgomery County early voting, on pace to 45% turnoutClarksvilleNow.com - News · 4 days agoWith early voting for the Nov. 3 election halfway through, almost 15,000 people in Montgomery County have cast their ballots, much higher than 2022. CLARKSVILLE, TN (CLARKSVILLE NOW) – With early voting for the Nov. 3 election halfway…
Montgomery County legislation aims to increase pedestrian safety by making it easier to build sidewalksFOX 5 DC · 4 days agoMontgomery County councilmembers want to make things safer for pedestrians â by making it easier to build sidewalks in residential neighborhoods. Through the first nine months of the year, pedestrian-involved crashes were up 10 percent…
How the Montgomery County Council plans to accelerate sidewalk constructionThe Banner · 4 days agoAiming to reduce collisions between people and vehicles, all 11 members of the Montgomery County Council are backing a bill to accelerate sidewalk construction. Introduced this week by council member Evan Glass, the legislation…
Montgomery County commissioners vote to proceed with mounted patrol servicesCommunity Impact Newspaper · 4 days agoMontgomery County commissioners voted 5-0 at Commissioners Court on Oct. 22 to approve additional law enforcement for The Woodlands Township’s mounted patrol services. The decision comes after the township voted in September to approve the…
Box: Linn 3, Montgomery County 0STLtoday.com · 5 days agoJavascript is required to use this website. People are also readingâ¦ - Texas couple charged in random shooting of teen on I-170. Man suspected in second shooting - St. Louis high school football team cancels season for player misconduct…
5 things to know today, Oct. 22, in Montgomery CountyMontgomery Community Media · 5 days agoIt’s Thursday, Oct. 22, and here are five things to know in Montgomery County. Check the weather forecast here. 1. Early Voting Starts: Early voting starts today in Maryland. See Montgomery County’s 14 early voting sites here. County…
Montgomery County joins Rockville in banning rent-setting algorithmsBethesda Magazine · 5 days agoPractice has been subject of antitrust lawsuits at state and federal levels The city of Rockville is no longer the only local jurisdiction undertaking an effort to stop landlords from using algorithmic devices to price rental units. The…
Montgomery County expands speed camera authority, cracks down on street takeoversWJLA · 5 days agoROCKVILLE, Md. (7News) — The Montgomery County Council has unanimously approved expanding where speed cameras can be used, while also passing new legislation aimed at cracking down on illegal street takeovers. The two measures, approved…
Bethesda African Cemetery Coalition to deliver petition to Montgomery County todayRobert Dyer @ Bethesda Row · 5 days agoRobert Dyer @ Bethesda Row Wednesday, October 21, 2026 Bethesda African Cemetery Coalition to deliver petition to Montgomery County today Cemetery advocates have been engaged in an ongoing legal dispute with the developer and Montgomery…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onMontgomery County Elections, Texas Secretary of State

Trading closesNov 3, 2027 10:00 AM ET

Traded$11.1K (14,030 contracts)

This week$40

At stake$7K

In the news2 headlines today, 37 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If Mark Keough wins the 2026 Montgomery County, Texas, County Judge general election, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions