Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/26 - 11/1)
189.1median
140230
Median 189.1Middle half 174.1 – 201.4
Install
Will nonstop U.S.–Lebanon passenger flights resume?
The odds
21%Before Apr 1, 2027
- Before Jan 1, 20278%
- Before Apr 1, 202721%
How the odds have moved
Before Jan 1, 2027: 7% on Oct 20, 8% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 8% | 4¢ | 11¢ | $9.09 | 7.4K | |
| Before Apr 1, 2027 | 21% | 17¢ | 25¢ | $4.00 | 4.0K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Lebanon
Search ›- The United States Officially Unbanned Direct Flights To LebanonLebanon just took a major step toward reconnecting with the United States. President Donald Trump has officially lifted the decades-old restrictions preventing U.S. airlines from operating direct flights to Lebanon, opening the door for…
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Lebanon Daily LifeGazetteXtra A man holds freshly picked olives in his hands during the olive harvest in the village of Roumine, southern Lebanon, Saturday, Oct. 24, 2026. Rock County Board OKs panelists for new data center advisory panel despite some… -
Lebanon and Kuwait reaffirm historic tiesBEIRUT: Lebanese President Joseph Aoun on Friday reaffirmed the deep-rooted fraternal and historic relations between Lebanon and Kuwait, stressing both countrie... Lebanon and Kuwait reaffirm historic ties BEIRUT: Lebanese President Joseph… -
Lebanon Standoff: Political Divisions Threaten Security StabilityGlobal Arab Network Lebanon Standoff: Political Divisions Threaten Security Stability Lebanon faces an increasingly precarious security outlook as internal political divisions intersect with the complexities of ongoing diplomatic… -
Lebanese Open Chess Championship 2026ChessBase India News, training and tools for the whole chess community. -
Lebanon Girls Varsity Volleyball vs. TazewellTazewell Girls Varsity Volleyball @ Lebanon MaxPreps Follow your favorite high school teams and players Stat keeping for basketball teams See top plays & highlights of the best high school sports Get access to live game streams and full… -
Lebanon Travel Advisory Update: October 2026Governments worldwide maintain strict “do not travel” warnings for Lebanon in October 2026 as conflict, airspace alerts and operational constraints reshape trip planning. Lebanon remains under strict “do not travel” warnings in October… -
US renews Lebanon travel warning over Beirut strike risksThe United States has reissued its strongest travel warning for Lebanon, highlighting the danger of drone and missile strikes in Beirut and continuing regional instability. The United States has reiterated its strongest warning against… -
Israeli artillery shells town in southern Lebanon’s Tyre districtMiddle East Eye Israeli artillery shells town in southern Lebanon’s Tyre district Israeli artillery shelling is targeting the town of al-Mansouri in southern Lebanon’s Tyre district, Lebanon’s National News Agency reported. -
Druze leader warns of possible Israeli settlements in southern LebanonEight-year-old Emirati acrobat finds her feet in the air Jordan’s King Abdullah arrives in Karak after church shooting Paris shops boarding up in anticipation of Saturday protests Can AI really understand Arabic dialects? Dana White… - Lebanon Travel Advisory Tightens in October 2026Major governments renew “do not travel” warnings for Lebanon in October 2026, citing armed conflict, terrorism risks, and unpredictable border and airspace closures. Lebanon remains subject to some of the strictest travel warnings in the…
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Israeli military shells southern Lebanon towns and villagesIsraeli military has shelled the southern Lebanese municipality of Khiam, towns of Zawtar al-Sharqiyah and Mayfadoun, as well as the villages of Barashit, Majdal Zoun and Qantara, the official ... Israeli military shells southern Lebanon…
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All world leaders ›Traffic through the Suez Canal? (10/26 - 11/1)
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197.2median
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Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/19 - 10/25)
185.8median
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Median 185.8Middle half 176.0 – 197.5
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
Feb 27, 2028even chance by
- Before Nov 1, 20262%
- Before Dec 1, 20265%
- Before Jan 1, 20278%
14 more
- Before Feb 1, 20279%▼ 1
- Before Mar 1, 202714%▼ 2
- Before Apr 1, 202718%
- Before May 1, 202719%▼ 2
- Before Jun 1, 202725%
- Before Jul 1, 202731%
- Before Aug 1, 202733%
- Before Sep 1, 202734%▼ 1
- Before Oct 1, 202737%
- Before Nov 1, 202741%
- Before Dec 1, 202741%
- Before Jan 1, 202848%▼ 1
- Before Jul 1, 202856%
- Before Jan 1, 202960%
Will France declare a state of emergency? (Before Jan 1, 2027)
22%Before Jan 1, 2027
- Before Nov 1, 20268%▼ 4
- Before Jan 1, 202722%▲ 3
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.