Los Angeles mayoral election margin of victory? (Karen Bass) (Nov 3, 2026)
34%Karen Bass, ≥2%
0%12%
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Los Angeles mayoral election margin of victory? (Nithya Raman) (Nov 3, 2026)
The odds
47%Nithya Raman, ≥2%
0%18%
How the odds have moved
Nithya Raman, ≥2%: 48% on Oct 20, 47% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Why it moved
- Oct 21, 7 PM ETNithya Raman, ≥2%: 49% → 41%
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nithya Raman, ≥2% | 47% | ▲ 1 | 44¢ | 50¢ | $2.00 | 5.6K |
| Nithya Raman, ≥4% | 37% | 32¢ | 41¢ | $2.44 | 2.5K | |
| Nithya Raman, ≥6% | 31% | 26¢ | 35¢ | $2.86 | 1.9K | |
| Nithya Raman, ≥8% | 25% | ▲ 2 | 22¢ | 28¢ | $3.57 | 1.6K |
| Nithya Raman, ≥10% | 19% | 16¢ | 22¢ | $4.55 | 3.1K | |
| Nithya Raman, ≥12% | 12% | 7¢ | 16¢ | $6.25 | 206 | |
| Nithya Raman, ≥14% | 8% | 4¢ | 11¢ | $9.09 | 5.00 | |
| Nithya Raman, ≥16% | 4% | 2¢ | 6¢ | $16.67 | 5.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Los Angeles, Nithya Raman
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Inside the ‘bad will’ for Nithya Raman at LA City HallNithya Raman is facing “a full-on, multiple-person verbal assault” from her City Council colleagues, not one of whom has endorsed her. If Raman wins, her ambitious agenda may depend on her ability to persuade a council majority to go… -
Did Karen Bass Expand Film Incentives? Nithya Raman Campaign Flags ‘Whopper’ ClaimNithya Raman‘s campaign is calling out L.A. Mayor Karen Bass for taking credit for expanding the state film and TV incentive in a recent TV ad. In the ad, Bass looks to the camera and says: “With the film industry struggling, I cut fees… -
Nithya Raman pushes more public toilets despite crappy $1M Runyon Canyon bathroom fiascoLos Angeles mayoral candidate Nithya Raman is pushing to build more public toilets across the city, despite a nearly $1 million bathroom debacle in her own district that left hikers waiting months to use just two stalls. The councilwoman… -
Fed-up LA voters rage about Karen Bass — but fear Nithya Raman is even worse: ‘She rolled her eyes’Los Angeles voters are facing a grim choice in the race for mayor, with some so disillusioned by Karen Bass’ leadership that they are backing her for another four years simply because they believe her challenger would be even worse. The… -
Nithya Raman walks back "gold standard" comment about former LAPD Chief Daryl GatesOctober 21, 2026 / 10:06 PM PDT / CBS LA Los Angeles City Council member and mayoral candidate Nithya Raman is walking back recent comments about controversial former LAPD Chief Daryl Gates. "This city used to be the gold standard in terms… -
Karen Bass Is Collapsing But Does Los Angeles Know What It’s Getting With Nithya Raman?THE BOTTOM LINE - Bass is hemorrhaging voter confidence. But rejecting the incumbent and embracing Raman’s political agenda are two very different things. Los Angeles voters appear ready to fire Karen Bass. The more consequential question… -
Watch Nithya Raman’s garbled interview when grilled on police comments: ‘I don’t know… I don’t know’Los Angeles mayoral hopeful Nithya Raman was left scrambling when asked to name a police chief she admires — an awkward moment for the councilwoman already facing blowback over her praise of controversial former LAPD Chief Daryl Gates… -
Mayor Karen Bass outraises Councilmember Nithya Raman in Nov. 3 runoffLos Angeles Mayor Karen Bass has outraised challenger Nithya Raman in fundraising for the Nov. 3 runoff election, the latest campaign finance reports show, pulling in about $3.4 million to Raman’s $3 million. Bass collected $827,000 in… -
L.A. Has a 911 Problem. Can Karen Bass or Nithya Raman Fix It?At a Friday press conference, Mayor Karen Bass addressed L.A.’s troubled 911 system, but questions persist about how quickly City Hall can deliver meaningful change • 21 hours ago Los Angeles has no shortage of political promises about… -
Nithya Raman Clarifies Remarks Made About Former LAPD Chief Daryl Gates AgainThe reference to the former LAPD chief has sparked criticism as she defends Special Order 40 and challenges Mayor Karen Bass over police accountability • 2 hours ago During a televised mayoral debate, Councilmember Nithya Raman referred to… -
Los Angeles councilmember calls for LADWP audit after saying bills jumped 40%For many Los Angeles voters, frustration over utility costs is becoming a defining issue in the closely watched mayoral race. City Councilmember Nithya Raman has put high Los Angeles Department of Water and Power bills at the center of her… - LA voters, and Nithya Raman, should listen to top cop’s warningWhen former LA Police Department (LAPD) chief Bill Bratton talks, people in LA listen. So when Bratton says Nithya Raman would be making a terrible mistake if she were to follow through on her campaign pledge to fire current LAPD Chief Jim…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions