Toronto Mayoral Election Winner
81%Olivia Chow
- Olivia Chow81%▲ 6
- Brad Bradford19%▼ 5
- Ana Bailão<1%
5 more
- Michael Ford<1%
- Anthony Furey<1%
- Marco Mendicino<1%
- John Tory<1%
- Kevin Clarke<1%
Install
Ottawa Mayoral Election Winner
The odds
96%Mark Sutcliffe
- Mark Sutcliffe96%▲ 7
- Jeff Leiper2%▼ 8
- Alex Lawson<1%
- Neil Saravanamuttoo<1%
- Catherine McKenney<1%
How the odds have moved
Mark Sutcliffe: 90% on Oct 20, 96% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Oct 26, 7 PM ETMark Sutcliffe: 89% → 96%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
- Oct 21, 7 PM ETMark Sutcliffe: 89% → 83%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Sutcliffe | 96% | ▲ 7 | 95¢ | 98¢ | $1.02 | $62.3K |
| Jeff Leiper | 2% | ▼ 8 | 2¢ | 3¢ | $33.33 | $20.8K |
| Alex Lawson | <1% | 0¢ | 0¢ | $19.6K | ||
| Neil Saravanamuttoo | <1% | 0¢ | 0¢ | $7.5K | ||
| Catherine McKenney | <1% | 0¢ | $6.2K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Ottawa Mayoral, Mark Sutcliffe, Jeff Leiper
Search ›No recent headlines name this market's subject.
Related markets
All state & local ›New York Attorney General winner? (2026)
92%Letitia James
- Letitia James92%▲ 3
- Saritha Komatireddy8%▼ 2
Los Angeles Mayor winner? (2026)
56%Nithya Raman
- Nithya Raman56%▲ 1
- Karen Bass44%▼ 1
North Carolina State House winner?
52%Democratic party
- Democratic party52%▼ 3
- Republican party46%▲ 3
New York Attorney General Election Winner
93%Letitia James (D)
- Letitia James (D)93%▲ 1
- Saritha Komatireddy (R)7%▼ 2
Ljubljana Mayoral Election Winner
65%Zoran Janković
- Zoran Janković65%
- Luka Mesec29%▼ 1
- Aleš Vrhovec3%▲ 1
8 more
- Klemen Boštjančič1%▼ 1
- Anton Rop1%
- Aleksandar Repić<1%
- Gregor Novak<1%
- Jasmin Feratović<1%
- Aleš Primc<1%
- Mihael Jarc<1%
- Apolonija Simon<1%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions