Los Angeles mayoral election margin of victory? (Nithya Raman) (Nov 3, 2026)
47%Nithya Raman, ≥2%
0%18%
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Los Angeles mayoral election margin of victory? (Karen Bass) (Nov 3, 2026)
The odds
35%Karen Bass, ≥2%
0%12%
How the odds have moved
Karen Bass, ≥2%: 45% on Oct 20, 35% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Why it moved
- Oct 21, 7 PM ETKaren Bass, ≥2%: 41% → 34%
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karen Bass, ≥2% | 35% | ▼ 1 | 31¢ | 38¢ | $2.63 | 5.7K |
| Karen Bass, ≥4% | 28% | ▼ 3 | 24¢ | 32¢ | $3.13 | 4.6K |
| Karen Bass, ≥6% | 20% | ▼ 3 | 15¢ | 24¢ | $4.17 | 784 |
| Karen Bass, ≥8% | 14% | 9¢ | 18¢ | $5.56 | 630 | |
| Karen Bass, ≥10% | 9% | ▼ 1 | 4¢ | 13¢ | $7.69 | 1.5K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Los Angeles, Karen Bass
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Karen Bass is not who you think she isBy David Siders and Christopher Cadelago 08/06/2020 11:47 AM EDT Karen Bass was speaker of the California Assembly when a Republican lawmaker in 2009 was caught on a hot mic boasting in lurid detail about an affair he said he had with a… -
Did Karen Bass Expand Film Incentives? Nithya Raman Campaign Flags ‘Whopper’ ClaimNithya Raman‘s campaign is calling out L.A. Mayor Karen Bass for taking credit for expanding the state film and TV incentive in a recent TV ad. In the ad, Bass looks to the camera and says: “With the film industry struggling, I cut fees… -
Vote centers open across Los Angeles County for first day of early voting in CaliforniaCBS News Los Angeles is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as KCAL-TV and channel 9, CBS News Los Angeles offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. Vote centers… -
Karen Bass desperately needs the voters who hate her most — and Spencer Pratt may hold the keySpencer Pratt lost his home in the Palisades Fire. Then he ran for mayor on one message: Karen Bass failed the Palisades. More than 200,000 voters believed him. Now the mayor’s political life is in their hands. Pratt didn’t mince words. He… -
Karen Bass Is Collapsing But Does Los Angeles Know What It’s Getting With Nithya Raman?THE BOTTOM LINE - Bass is hemorrhaging voter confidence. But rejecting the incumbent and embracing Raman’s political agenda are two very different things. Los Angeles voters appear ready to fire Karen Bass. The more consequential question… -
Fed-up LA voters rage about Karen Bass — but fear Nithya Raman is even worse: ‘She rolled her eyes’Los Angeles voters are facing a grim choice in the race for mayor, with some so disillusioned by Karen Bass’ leadership that they are backing her for another four years simply because they believe her challenger would be even worse. The… -
Mayor Karen Bass outraises Councilmember Nithya Raman in Nov. 3 runoffLos Angeles Mayor Karen Bass has outraised challenger Nithya Raman in fundraising for the Nov. 3 runoff election, the latest campaign finance reports show, pulling in about $3.4 million to Raman’s $3 million. Bass collected $827,000 in… -
L.A. Has a 911 Problem. Can Karen Bass or Nithya Raman Fix It?At a Friday press conference, Mayor Karen Bass addressed L.A.’s troubled 911 system, but questions persist about how quickly City Hall can deliver meaningful change • 21 hours ago Los Angeles has no shortage of political promises about… -
Karen Bass faces political gulag after Nithya ‘Red’ Raman’s revolutionary poll surgeThe poll results are in, comrades, and it looks like deep-blue LA is about to fall to the reds. The California Poll survey, conducted among 400 likely voters from Oct. 15 to 18, shows that socialist Nithya Raman has an eight-point lead on… -
Los Angeles speed cameras spark debate over safety, surveillance and city prioritiesLos Angeles is rolling out speed cameras to curb dangerous driving, starting with 20 cameras and plans to expand to 125 locations. LOS ANGELES - New speed cameras are flashing across Los Angeles as the city rolls out a program designed to… -
In struggling LA, Mayor Karen Bass fights for 2nd term against democratic socialist-backed RamanBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. LOS ANGELES — To voter… -
Los Angeles councilmember calls for LADWP audit after saying bills jumped 40%For many Los Angeles voters, frustration over utility costs is becoming a defining issue in the closely watched mayoral race. City Councilmember Nithya Raman has put high Los Angeles Department of Water and Power bills at the center of her…
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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions