US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
66%October 22
- October 2266%
- October 2466%
- October 2866%▲ 3
6 more
- October 3166%▲ 7
- November 866%▲ 3
- November 1566%▲ 2
- November 2266%▲ 3
- November 3066%▲ 1
- December 3166%▲ 2
Install
Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran? (Before 2028)
The odds
18%Before 2028
- Before 202818%▼ 23
- Before 20272%
How the odds have moved
Before 2028: 9% on Oct 20, 18% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Oct 24, 11 PM ETBefore 2028: 40% → 11%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before 2028 | 18% | ▼ 23 | 13¢ | 22¢ | $4.55 | 700 |
| Before 2027 | 2% | 2¢ | 2¢ | $52.63 | 241.6K | |
| Before September 2026 | 1% | $100.00 | 75.9K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Iran
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How the Iran war is influencing voters in the U.S. and IsraelNPR's Ayesha Rascoe speaks with Middle East Institute senior fellow Natan Sachs about striking Iran, developments in the West Bank, and elections in Israel and the U.S. How the Iran war is influencing voters in the U.S. and Israel NPR's… -
Latest news on the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran — stories, videos, latest coveragePresident Trump said Iran was trying to drive up oil prices before the midterms by lying about ships hitting mines or being struck by projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz. Experts tell CBS News geography, interceptor shortages and evolving… -
Barack Obama Slams Donald Trump, Pete Hegseth Over Iran WarOct 24, 2026 at 04:01 PM EDT Oct 24, 2026 at 04:08 PM EDT Former President Barack Obama criticized President Donald Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth on Saturday over the war with Iran, calling the administration “not serious… -
US Intel warns Iran boosting efforts to target Americans in MideastIran has ramped up efforts to target Americans overseas, with lethal plots reaching “advanced stages” as the Trump administration weighs renewed military strikes against Tehran, new intelligence is warning. Director of National… -
Powerful general in Iran emerges from hiding as Tehran prepares for Khamenei’s dayslong funeralGen. Ahmad Vahidi attended a meeting about the funeral of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and sat alongside the late supreme leader's casket, Iranian state media photos showed. Powerful general in Iran emerges from hiding as Tehran prepares for… -
Iran is not bowing to pressureBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. Reuel Marc Gerecht is… -
Iran in ‘advanced stages’ of plots to kill U.S. officials abroad, memo warnsThe Washington Post Jay Clayton, the top U.S. intelligence official, said in the memo that Iran has "substantially increased" efforts to target Americans. The top U.S. intelligence official has warned of growing threats to American… -
Iran remains open to talks with US under Pakistan-brokered deal, envoy saysBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. ISLAMABAD — Iran… -
Iran has "increased efforts to target U.S. personnel," intel chief warnsOctober 23, 2026 / 11:13 PM EDT / CBS News Director of National Intelligence Jay Clayton warned Friday that Iran has "substantially increased efforts to target U.S. personnel" abroad, with plots to kill Americans reaching "advanced stages"… -
American embassies tighten security as Iran threat warnings intensify ahead of U.S. midterm electionsU.S. embassy officials were on heightened alert around the Middle East as new reports said Iran is in the "advanced stages" of planning attacks against Americans Friday. A memo from Director of National Intelligence Jay Clayton said… -
Iran ramps up efforts to target US personnel overseas, intelligence memo revealsA U.S. intelligence memo warns that Iran has intensified efforts to target Americans abroad, with lethal plots reaching "advanced stages" as the State Department adjusts embassy staffing amid escalating security threats in the Middle East… -
Iran has 'substantially increased' efforts to target Americans abroad, US intelligence memo warnsA U.S. intelligence memo warns that Iran has intensified efforts to target Americans abroad, with lethal plots reaching "advanced stages" as the State Department adjusts embassy staffing amid escalating security threats in the Middle East…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions