Will Iran become a democracy in 2026?

Kalshi World › Middle East Closes Mar 1, 2027 · $9 today · $6.8K traded · $2.2K at stake · prices read 2 h ago

The odds

2%chance

How the odds have moved

Yes: 2% on Oct 20, 2% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
Yes 2% 1¢ 3¢ $34.48 325.3K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Iran

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  • Iran DOUBLING DOWN on nuclear ambitions: ReportFox News · 8 h agoFox News senior strategic analyst Jack Keane discusses reports that Iran is rebuilding its nuclear program during 'Sunday Morning Futures.' ... Iran DOUBLING DOWN on nuclear ambitions: Report Fox News senior strategic analyst Jack Keane…
  • Trump RIPS Obama: Iran thought he was a SUCKER!Fox News · 8 h agoPresident Donald Trump sharply criticized Barack Obama's previous JCPOA deal with Iran, calling it the 'worst and dumbest deal' he has ever seen. Trump RIPS Obama: Iran thought he was a SUCKER! President Donald Trump sharply criticized…
  • Iran may be rebuilding nuclear sites, satellite images revealFox News · 9 h agoFox News senior strategic analyst Jack Keane discusses reports of Iran rebuilding its nuclear facilities, President Donald Trump's options for confronting Tehran and more. Iran may be rebuilding nuclear sites, satellite images reveal Fox…
  • US intel warns Iran is planning lethal plots against AmericansFox News · 5 h agoLexington Institute vice president Rebecca Grant and national security strategist Jake Sotiriadis join ‘Fox News Live’ to discuss warnings that Iran is in advanced stages of planning lethal plots against Americans. US intel warns Iran is…
  • How the Iran war is influencing voters in the U.S. and IsraelNPR · 13 h agoNPR's Ayesha Rascoe speaks with Middle East Institute senior fellow Natan Sachs about striking Iran, developments in the West Bank, and elections in Israel and the U.S. How the Iran war is influencing voters in the U.S. and Israel NPR's…
  • Latest news on the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran — stories, videos, latest coverageCBS News · 12 h agoPresident Trump said Iran was trying to drive up oil prices before the midterms by lying about ships hitting mines or being struck by projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz. Experts tell CBS News geography, interceptor shortages and evolving…
  • Barack Obama Slams Donald Trump, Pete Hegseth Over Iran WarNewsweek · 36 h agoOct 24, 2026 at 04:01 PM EDT Oct 24, 2026 at 04:08 PM EDT Former President Barack Obama criticized President Donald Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth on Saturday over the war with Iran, calling the administration “not serious…
  • Powerful general in Iran emerges from hiding as Tehran prepares for Khamenei’s dayslong funeralPOLITICO · 12 h agoGen. Ahmad Vahidi attended a meeting about the funeral of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and sat alongside the late supreme leader's casket, Iranian state media photos showed. Powerful general in Iran emerges from hiding as Tehran prepares for…
  • US Intel warns Iran boosting efforts to target Americans in MideastNew York Post · 36 h agoIran has ramped up efforts to target Americans overseas, with lethal plots reaching “advanced stages” as the Trump administration weighs renewed military strikes against Tehran, new intelligence is warning. Director of National…
  • Iran in ‘advanced stages’ of plots to kill U.S. officials abroad, memo warnsThe Washington Post · 32 h agoThe Washington Post Jay Clayton, the top U.S. intelligence official, said in the memo that Iran has "substantially increased" efforts to target Americans. The top U.S. intelligence official has warned of growing threats to American…
  • Iran remains open to talks with US under Pakistan-brokered deal, envoy saysThe Washington Post · 33 h agoBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. ISLAMABAD — Iran…
  • Iran is not bowing to pressureThe Washington Post · 3 days agoBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. Reuel Marc Gerecht is…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions