Will the House impeach a federal judge this year? (Before 2027)

Kalshi Politics › Congress Closes Jan 1, 2027 · $464 traded · $170 at stake · prices read 6 h ago

The odds

5%chance

How the odds have moved

Yes: 3% on Oct 19, 5% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
Yes 5% 2¢ 9¢ $11.76 8.8K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: impeachment, House

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  • Impeachment is back on the menuPOLITICO · 35 h agoThe unofficial guide to official Washington, every morning and weekday afternoons. 10/21/2026 01:40 PM EDT Impeachment dominated much of Donald Trump’s first presidency. Voters think it should come back for a sequel. Half of Americans…
  • House Democrats Target Hegseth for ImpeachmentPolitical Wire · 2 days agoJust dropped · Trial Balloon · Ep. 192 “House Democrats are setting their political sights on Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, pushing for his removal as the first spoils from anticipated wins in the midterm election,” the Wall Street…
  • House Dems Target Hegseth for Impeachment if They Win MidtermsAmerican Greatness · 39 h agoHouse Democrats are already plotting to impeach Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth if they regain control of Congress in November, making the Trump administration official a top target of their anticipated return to power. While Democratic…
  • Madagascar coup leader sworn in as president after Andry Rajoelina impeached amid "Gen Z" protestsCBS News · 2 days agoOctober 17, 2025 / 8:52 AM EDT / CBS News Johannesburg — Large crowds gathered Friday in Madagascar's capital city to watch the leader of the African island nation's recent military coup be sworn in as its new president. Col. Michael…
  • House Democrats Make Hegseth Their First Impeachment Target, Vote Expected Next Month@cdnnow · 35 h agoHouse Democrats are rallying behind impeaching Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, with a floor vote likely next month while Republicans still control the chamber, The Wall Street Journal reported. Party leaders and candidates in competitive…
  • Ombudsman to review House evidence on Sara Duterte impeachment chargesThe Filipino Times · 3 days agoOmbudsman Jesus Crispin Remulla said his office will review evidence that the House prosecution panel may turn over following the withdrawal of three articles of impeachment against Vice President Sara Duterte. Lead prosecutor Batangas 2nd…
  • Trump will be impeached by the House and convicted by the Senate. Then what?Lucianne · 32 h agoI’m about to say things you don’t want to hear. But I’m a prognosticator, not a cheerleader (even though I voted for Trump three times). So here goes. The Democrats will retake the House of... Trump will be impeached by the House and…
  • Impeach Trump Y/N?Slate Magazine · 41 h agoAdvertisement Listen & Subscribe Choose your preferred player: Apple Podcasts Spotify TuneIn Pocket Casts RSS Feed For questions about subscriptions or your Slate Plus feed, check our FAQ. Please enable javascript to get your Slate Plus…
  • White House looking for other countries to accept deporteesPOLITICO · 40 h agoThe U.S. has sent about 240 Venezuelans to a prison in El Salvador known for harsh conditions. Secretary of State Marco Rubio speaks during a cabinet meeting at the White House on Wednesday. | Evan Vucci/AP 04/30/2025 4:16 PM EDT The Trump…
  • Trump Impeachment ‘Theater’ Loses Steam with LeftPolitical Wire · 34 h agoJust dropped · Trial Balloon · Ep. 192 “Progressive House members and candidates are taking a stark turn away from what they describe as ‘performative’ efforts to impeach President Trump,” Axios reports. “This is a drastic shift in tone…
  • Interactive graphic: Explore how the battle for the House could play outNBC News · 39 h agoJavier Zarracina is an award-winning senior data and graphics editor for NBC News, where he creates maps, interactives and data visualizations across topics including politics, business, science, health and breaking news. Who will win…
  • Democrats poised for significant House gains, Cook Political Report estimatesThe Washington Post · 2 days agoThe nonpartisan Cook Political Report projects Democrats will most likely flip between 12 and 22 seats in November — potentially giving them bigger majorities than the ones they won during blue waves in the 2006 and 2018 midterms. On…

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions