Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
66%Democrats Sweep
- Democrats Sweep66%▼ 1
- R Senate, D House25%▲ 1
- Republicans Sweep7%▼ 1
2 more
- D Senate, R House1%
- Other<1%
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Iowa Secretary of Agriculture winner? (2026)
The odds
65%Mike Naig
- Mike Naig65%▲ 8
- Chris Jones34%▼ 10
How the odds have moved
Mike Naig: 46% on Oct 20, 65% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Oct 21, 7 PM ETMike Naig: 47% → 54%
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Naig | 65% | ▲ 8 | 61¢ | 69¢ | $1.45 | 2.7K |
| Chris Jones | 34% | ▼ 10 | 29¢ | 38¢ | $2.63 | 1.4K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Iowa Secretary of Agriculture, Mike Naig, Chris Jones
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Dem underdog Chris Jones builds momentum in Arkansas House raceCNN Dem underdog Chris Jones builds momentum in Arkansas House race Incumbent Republican Congressman French Hill is in a close Arkansas House race with Democratic hopeful Chris Jones. Jones aims to be first Black lawmaker from Arkansas in… -
Meet the Candidates: Chris Jones(Lansing) -- KMA News continues its "Meet the Candidates" series, featuring the candidate running in key races in the November general election. Today, we turn our attention to the race for Iowa's agriculture secretary, with a report on… -
314 Action Fund Endorses Chris Jones for Arkansas’s 2nd Congressional District$17 is our average donation! Today 314 Action Fund, the nation’s only organization dedicated to recruiting, training and electing doctors and scientists, endorsed Chris Jones for Arkansas’s 2nd Congressional District. Click an option to… -
Arkansas has never elected a Black member of Congress. Chris Jones could change thatThe physicist, nonprofit executive and former gubernatorial nominee is running a competitive campaign against Republican Rep. French Hill. As Election Day nears, Black history is within reach in a very competitive U.S. House race in… -
Iowa ag secretary candidates differ on water quality, fertilizer rulesDES MOINES, Iowa (Gray Media Iowa State Capitol Bureau) — The candidates for Iowa secretary of agriculture have different ideas about how to improve the state’s water quality, including how farmers use fertilizer. Democrat Chris Jones says… -
Brenna Bird widens attorney general fundraising leadIowa Attorney General Brenna Bird speaks during the "Triple M Tailgate" campaign event Sept. 12, 2026 at the Highlander Hotel in Iowa City, Iowa. Incumbent Attorney General Brenna Bird has expanded her fundraising lead over Democratic… -
A scientist was pushed out for studying Iowa’s water. Now he’s running to regulate it.Paddlers skim along the water to the sound of gulls. Small waves splash against driftwood and the banks of the Des Moines River. A flotilla of experienced kayakers, canoers who built their own boats and infrequent recreators expands and… -
This November, Choose The Democratic PartyKSOM Shop Local And Save This November, Choose The Democratic Party A “no” vote opposes Amendment 1, thus maintaining the requirement of a simple majority vote in both chambers of the state legislature to pass a bill that would increase… - Chris Jones Remarks At #VoteEarly Event In Iowa City"Make sure you vote. Clean water is on the ballot." - Chris Jones, Democratic candidate for Iowa Secretary of Agriculture, Saturday, October 17, 2026, Iowa City, Iowa https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=282lCDbuDPw Signs at the event. Early…
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As Iowa Harvest Picks Up, State Officials Urge Farmers to Vote EarlyThe Iowa Capital Dispatch is a hard-hitting, independent news organization dedicated to connecting Iowans to their state government and its impact on their lives. The Capital Dispatch combines state government coverage with relentless… -
Iowa National Guard Adjutant General Maj. Gen. Stephen Osborn to retireDES MOINES, Iowa -- Iowa National Guard Adjutant General Maj. Gen. Stephen Osborn will retire early next year. A spokesperson with the National Guard, along with Governor Kim Reynolds, announced on Wednesday that Osborn will retire on… -
This is a piece about the elections, but at first it won’t seem like itA powerful delegation, but here’s my question: why do they seem so powerless? On Jan. 1, 2014, the first Arkansans began enjoying health insurance coverage under Arkansas’s innovative and bipartisan version of Medicaid expansion. For over…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.