Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (10/19 - 10/25)
6.24median
211
Median 6.24Middle half 5.42 – 6.83
Install
Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (10/26 - 11/1)
The odds
5.91median
211
Median 5.91Middle half 4.44 – 7.34
How the odds have moved
Median: 6.07 on Oct 25, 5.91 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 3 | 95% | 94¢ | 95¢ | $1.05 | 2.7K | |
| Above 4 | 79% | 78¢ | 79¢ | $1.27 | ||
| Above 5 | 71% | 70¢ | 71¢ | $1.41 | 4.00 | |
| Above 6 | 48% | ▼ 4 | 47¢ | 49¢ | $2.04 | 410 |
| Above 7 | 31% | 30¢ | 31¢ | $3.23 | 1.7K | |
| Above 8 | 14% | ▼ 4 | 14¢ | 15¢ | $6.67 | 2.3K |
| Above 9 | 4% | ▼ 1 | 3¢ | 4¢ | $25.00 | 1.6K |
| Above 10 | 3% | 2¢ | 3¢ | $33.33 | 2.7K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Iran, Strait of Hormuz, Peak
Search ›-
Trump touts booming economy, control in Strait of Hormuz as GOP fights to hold CongressPresident Donald Trump joins 'Sunday Morning Futures' to discuss the economy, midterm elections, Iran and more. Trump touts booming economy, control in Strait of Hormuz as GOP fights to hold Congress President Donald Trump joins 'Sunday… -
CENTCOM Commander Visits Strait of Hormuz during Milestone WeekSTRAIT OF HORMUZ — The commander of U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) visited the Strait of Hormuz, Oct. 25, as U.S. forces reach the milestone of assisting Gulf partners in exporting more than 1.5 billion barrels of crude oil since summer… -
Oil rises after attacks target vessels near Strait of HormuzReviewed by Rami Haddad, Editor-in-Chief · Last update: 2026.07.07 Oil prices moved higher on Tuesday after reports of attacks on vessels near the Strait of Hormuz renewed concerns about potential disruptions to shipping through one of the… - Iran warns Strait of Hormuz will never return to previous arrangementsTEHRAN — Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Sunday that the Strait of Hormuz would no longer operate under its previous arrangements following the war with the United States and Israel, warning that the conflict had fundamentally…
-
IRGC claims full control over Strait of Hormuz as Trump threatens fresh military strikesIran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) on Saturday claimed full control over the Strait of Hormuz and warned that it would not allow US military vessels to enter the Persian Gulf. The warning came after President Donald Trump… - Iran says resumption of war with US would not change its mind, with Strait of Hormuz 'no longer the same'Abbas Araghchi says more bombing from the US won't impact Iran. (Reuters: Denis Balibouse) A potential resumption of Iran's war with Israel and the United States would not change Tehran's position, according to Foreign Minister Abbas…
-
Attacks on commercial shipping in strait of Hormuz hit record high in October| Gulf Times Gulf Times Choose a section, type your search topic and how to match it, and set a date range from the start date to the end date, then press Search. Attacks on commercial shipping in strait of Hormuz hit record high in… - No offer made to US, no proposal sent to Pakistan mediator on Strait of Hormuz reopening: Iranian Media rejects reportsTehran [Iran], October 25 (ANI): Iran has made no new proposal to Pakistani mediators and rejects a reported offer to US on reopening of the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for lifting the US naval blockade, the IRGC-affiliated Tasnim news…
-
US-Israel-Iran War Latest News: ‘Full Control and Surveillance…’ – Iran’s Deputy Army Chief Issues Fresh Strait of Hormuz Warning as EU-GCC Summit in Riyadh Is PostponedThe developments come amid increased attacks on commercial vessels and wider concerns about maritime safety and regional stability. Iran’s deputy army chief, Rear Admiral Habibollah Sayyari, has warned that the Strait of Hormuz is closed… -
Iran Asserts Control Over Strait of Hormuz, Claims Oil Tankers Hit MinesIran's IRGC claims full control over the Strait of Hormuz, alleging oil tankers struck mines while navigating unauthorized routes. Iran Asserts Control Over Strait of Hormuz, Claims Oil Tankers Hit Mines Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard… -
Two oil supertankers explode after hitting mines in Strait of HormuzTwo supertankers attempting to navigate an "unauthorised" route south of the Strait of Hormuz struck naval mimes and exploded on Friday, the navy of Iran's Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC) said, following a reported security incident… -
What would happen if Iran attacks submarine cables beneath the Strait of Hormuz?Reconfiguring the future of public service in Bangladesh The Long Summer is coming: are we doing enough to protect our children? Genuine or fake? The verification dilemma behind Bangladesh's K-beauty boom Bangladesh’s new poor: Why growth…
Related markets
All middle east ›US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
66%October 22
- October 2266%
- October 2466%
- October 2866%▲ 3
6 more
- October 3166%
- November 866%▲ 3
- November 1566%▲ 5
- November 2266%▲ 2
- November 3066%▲ 2
- December 3166%▲ 2
Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
54%Gadi Eizenkot
- Gadi Eizenkot54%▲ 1
- Benjamin Netanyahu26%▼ 2
- Naftali Bennett13%▼ 1
16 more
- Avigdor Lieberman2%
- Israel Katz<1%
- Moshe Feiglin<1%▼ 1
- Amir Ohana<1%
- Yossi Cohen<1%
- Itamar Ben Gvir<1%
- Yair Lapid<1%
- Benny Gantz<1%
- Yair Golan<1%
- Gideon Sa’ar<1%
- Yariv Levin<1%
- Ayelet Shaked<1%
- Yoaz Hendel<1%
- Nir Barkat<1%
- Gilad Erdan<1%
- Ofer Winter<1%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
72%October 24
- October 2472%
- October 2772%▲ 3
- October 3172%▲ 2
3 more
- November 1572%▼ 2
- November 3072%▲ 2
- December 3172%▼ 4
US-Yemen ceasefire continues through...?
93%October 21
- October 2193%
- October 3193%▲ 4
- November 3093%▲ 5
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
35%December 31
- March 3128%▼ 1
- October 3128%▼ 1
- November 3028%▼ 1
1 more
- December 3135%▼ 2
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions