Peak Strait of Hormuz traffic day? (10/26 - 11/1)
14%October 26
- October 2614%
- October 2714%
- October 2814%
4 more
- October 2914%
- October 3014%
- October 3114%
- November 114%
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Peak Strait of Hormuz traffic day? (10/19 - 10/25)
The odds
52%October 21
- October 2152%▲ 9
- October 2317%▲ 3
- October 1915%
- October 2210%
- October 204%▼ 6
- October 243%
- October 252%
How the odds have moved
October 21: 14% on Oct 19, 52% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Oct 26, 8 PM ETOctober 21: 45% → 52%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
- Oct 21, 7 PM ETOctober 21: 14% → 20%
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 21 | 52% | ▲ 9 | 52¢ | 56¢ | $1.79 | 10.3K |
| October 23 | 17% | ▲ 3 | 17¢ | 19¢ | $5.26 | 11.1K |
| October 19 | 15% | 15¢ | 16¢ | $6.25 | 14.3K | |
| October 22 | 10% | 10¢ | 11¢ | $9.09 | 9.5K | |
| October 20 | 4% | ▼ 6 | 3¢ | 6¢ | $16.67 | 17.2K |
| October 24 | 3% | 3¢ | 4¢ | $25.00 | 4.3K | |
| October 25 | 2% | 2¢ | 3¢ | $33.33 | 5.8K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Iran, Peak Strait of Hormuz
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BREAKING: Israel weighs NEW Iran strikesIsraeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is reportedly weighing renewed Iran strikes as elections loom. BREAKING: Israel weighs NEW Iran strikes Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is reportedly weighing renewed Iran strikes as… -
Trump backs Netanyahu as Iran tensions loom over Israeli electionFox News chief foreign correspondent Trey Yingst reports on President Donald Trump's backing of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ahead of the Israeli election. Ret. USAF Brigadier Gen. John Teichert provides analysis on 'America… -
Netanyahu reportedly sought to resume strikes against Iran before Israeli electionsFox News chief foreign correspondent Trey Yingst reports on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's reported push to resume strikes against Iran on 'The Story.' ... Netanyahu reportedly sought to resume strikes against Iran before… -
Netanyahu reportedly pressured military to attack Iran in runup to electionIsraeli prime minister increases alarmist rhetoric as his far-right coalition narrowly trails in polls Benjamin Netanyahu has resorted to increasingly alarmist rhetoric and reportedly put pressure on Israel’s military to take action… -
Iran steps up efforts to target Americans, unclassified memo warnsFox News senior strategic analyst Gen. Jack Keane joins 'America's Newsroom' to discuss an unclassified memo detailing Iran's increased efforts to target U.S. citizens and analyzes potential military responses in the region. Iran steps up… -
Iran in 'ADVANCED STAGES' of planned attacks on AmericansFormer Secretary of State Mike Pompeo reacts to a memo about potential Iranian attacks on Americans, the reported threats to U.S. interests abroad and the American military presence in the region. Iran in 'ADVANCED STAGES' of planned… -
Bessent says Iran's economy is collapsing as Trump weighs next moveTreasury Secretary Scott Bessent joins Brian Kilmeade to discuss President Donald Trump's economic crackdown on Iran, mounting pressure on the Iranian regime, trade tensions with Canada and Mexico and the outlook for the U.S. economy… -
Trump warns of potential renewed strikes on Iran: ‘May do another little Epic Fury’Ret. U.S. Air Force Brig. Gen. John Teichert discusses President Donald Trump's warning of potential renewed strikes on Iran on 'America Reports.' ... Trump warns of potential renewed strikes on Iran: ‘May do another little Epic Fury’ Ret… -
Trump supporters confront Iran, affordability concerns with a message for critics: 'Give him time'Rallygoers in Perry, Georgia, voiced strong support for President Trump ahead of the midterms, with some emphasizing the importance of his endorsement as they continue getting to know his Senate pick, Rep. Mike Collins, R-Ga. Trump… -
Netanyahu fights for political future as Israel heads to polls with Iran threat loomingAhead of Israel’s Oct. 27 national vote, U.S. President Donald Trump issued a sweeping endorsement of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s reelection bid, calling him a "great warrior," an "even greater partner for peace" and an ally in the… -
Andrew Harding analyzes European protests and Trump's strategy on IranNational security policy analyst Andrew Harding joins 'Fox & Friends First' to discuss massive protests sweeping across Europe and Trump weighing his next steps regarding the Iran deal. Andrew Harding analyzes European protests and Trump's… -
Saudi Arabia and allies travel to Iran for talks on ending Houthi attacks, wider warTop officials from Saudi Arabia and allies Turkey and Pakistan were in Iran on Monday to negotiate an end to Houthi attacks — as well as the wider war. The talks represent the first, high-level contact between Tehran and the alliance that…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 5 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions