US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
66%October 22
- October 2266%
- October 2466%
- October 2866%▲ 3
6 more
- October 3166%
- November 866%▲ 3
- November 1566%▲ 5
- November 2266%▲ 2
- November 3066%▲ 2
- December 3166%▲ 2
Install
How high will average weekly Hormuz traffic get in 2026?
The odds
19%Above 30
20130
How the odds have moved
Above 30: 17% on Oct 20, 19% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 30 | 19% | 17¢ | 20¢ | $5.00 | 17.1K | |
| Above 40 | 16% | ▼ 2 | 15¢ | 17¢ | $5.88 | 61.2K |
| Above 50 | 12% | 11¢ | 12¢ | $8.33 | 16.1K | |
| Above 60 | 8% | ▲ 2 | 7¢ | 8¢ | $12.50 | 38.1K |
| Above 70 | 4% | 3¢ | 4¢ | $25.00 | 23.2K | |
| Above 80 | 4% | ▼ 1 | 3¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 | 14.2K |
| Above 90 | 3% | ▼ 2 | 2¢ | 3¢ | $33.33 | 20.2K |
| Above 100 | 3% | 2¢ | 3¢ | $33.33 | 12.6K | |
| Above 110 | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 541 | |
| Above 120 | 1% | 2¢ | $50.00 | 1.4K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Iran, Hormuz
Search ›-
US blockade in Strait of Hormuz traps $4.5B in Iranian oilTreasury Secretary Scott Bessent details how a U.S. blockade in the Strait of Hormuz has trapped vessels carrying $4.5 billion in Iranian oil. US blockade in Strait of Hormuz traps $4.5B in Iranian oil Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent… -
Iran says 7 oil tankers attacked in the Strait of Hormuz as fears of a return to war growMorning Rundown: Trump predicts GOP defeat in key race, Airbnb sets new rules for hosts, and World Series begins as lockout looms TEL AVIV — Seven oil tankers caught fire or were damaged in the Strait of Hormuz overnight after being hit by… -
Armed Forces bravery in upholding Hormuz symbol of Iran powerTEHRAN, Oct. 25 (MNA) â The commander of Iran's Army Navy has said that the valor and braveries of the naval personnel of the Armed Forces in safeguarding the strategic Strait of Hormuz is a symbol of Iranâs power on the international… -
Iran Rejects Reports of Hormuz Deal with US, Pakistan MediatorLokmat Times Iran has firmly denied reports of a new proposal to Pakistani mediators and a reported offer to the US regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for lifting the US naval blockade The IRGC-affiliated Tasnim… -
Iran says 7 oil tankers attacked in the Strait of Hormuz as fears grow of a return to warBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. Iran’s government says… -
Trump touts booming economy, control in Strait of Hormuz as GOP fights to hold CongressPresident Donald Trump joins 'Sunday Morning Futures' to discuss the economy, midterm elections, Iran and more. Trump touts booming economy, control in Strait of Hormuz as GOP fights to hold Congress President Donald Trump joins 'Sunday… -
-
Iran proposes reopening Hormuz in exchange for US lifting its blockade — TVTehran has already conveyed this proposal to Washington through Pakistani mediators, sources told the Al Arabiya - Russian Politics & Diplomacy Russian Politics & DiplomacyInto section â- Business & Economy Business & EconomyInto section… -
Obama Claims Iran Gained 'Veto Power' Over Hormuz As US Forces Maintain Control of the WaterwayWhile stumping for Democrat Senate candidates, former President Barack Obama boldly told audiences Saturday that Iran has gained “veto power” over the Strait of Hormuz, and that the country occupies a “stronger strategic position” than it… -
Iran DOUBLING DOWN on nuclear ambitions: ReportFox News senior strategic analyst Jack Keane discusses reports that Iran is rebuilding its nuclear program during 'Sunday Morning Futures.' ... Iran DOUBLING DOWN on nuclear ambitions: Report Fox News senior strategic analyst Jack Keane… -
‘Maybe tomorrow’: Trump hints at fresh Iran strikes as Tehran denies Hormuz deal offerThe Times of India US President Donald Trump has hinted at the possibility of renewed military action against Iran as early as Sunday, while keeping the door open to a diplomatic agreement Tehran, however, has denied reports that it… -
Iran Asserts Control Over Strait of Hormuz, Claims Oil Tankers Hit MinesIran's IRGC claims full control over the Strait of Hormuz, alleging oil tankers struck mines while navigating unauthorized routes. Iran Asserts Control Over Strait of Hormuz, Claims Oil Tankers Hit Mines Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard…
Related markets
All middle east ›Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
54%Gadi Eizenkot
- Gadi Eizenkot54%▲ 1
- Benjamin Netanyahu26%▼ 2
- Naftali Bennett13%▼ 1
16 more
- Avigdor Lieberman2%
- Israel Katz<1%
- Moshe Feiglin<1%▼ 1
- Amir Ohana<1%
- Yossi Cohen<1%
- Itamar Ben Gvir<1%
- Yair Lapid<1%
- Benny Gantz<1%
- Yair Golan<1%
- Gideon Sa’ar<1%
- Yariv Levin<1%
- Ayelet Shaked<1%
- Yoaz Hendel<1%
- Nir Barkat<1%
- Gilad Erdan<1%
- Ofer Winter<1%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
72%October 24
- October 2472%
- October 2772%▲ 3
- October 3172%▲ 2
3 more
- November 1572%▼ 2
- November 3072%▲ 2
- December 3172%▼ 4
US-Yemen ceasefire continues through...?
93%October 21
- October 2193%
- October 3193%▲ 4
- November 3093%▲ 5
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
35%December 31
- March 3128%▼ 1
- October 3128%▼ 1
- November 3028%▼ 1
1 more
- December 3135%▼ 2
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
19%chance▼ 1
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions