Brazil Presidential Election
>99%Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva>99%▲ 81
- Flávio Bolsonaro<1%▼ 81
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Hobart Lord Mayor election winner? (October 27, 2026)
The odds
29%John Kelly
- John Kelly29%
- Bill Harvey22%▲ 1
- Charles Wooley15%▲ 1
- Ryan Posselt9%▲ 1
- Marti Zucco8%▲ 1
- Harvey Lennon4%
- Rifatul Bari3%
- Louise Bloomfield3%
- Mike Dutta3%
- Tiffany Ashdown2%
- Jack McShane2%
How the odds have moved
John Kelly: 39% on Oct 19, 29% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Kelly | 29% | 94¢ | $1.06 | 304 | ||
| Bill Harvey | 22% | ▲ 1 | 19¢ | 26¢ | $3.85 | 666 |
| Charles Wooley | 15% | ▲ 1 | 11¢ | 20¢ | $5.00 | |
| Ryan Posselt | 9% | ▲ 1 | 5¢ | 13¢ | $7.69 | 80.00 |
| Marti Zucco | 8% | ▲ 1 | 4¢ | 12¢ | $8.33 | 20.00 |
| Harvey Lennon | 4% | 8¢ | $12.50 | 100 | ||
| Rifatul Bari | 3% | 7¢ | $14.29 | |||
| Louise Bloomfield | 3% | 7¢ | $14.29 | |||
| Mike Dutta | 3% | 7¢ | $14.29 | 30.00 | ||
| Tiffany Ashdown | 2% | 5¢ | $20.00 | |||
| Jack McShane | 2% | 5¢ | $20.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Hobart Lord Mayor, John Kelly, Bill Harvey
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions