2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?

Kalshi Elections › Around the world Closes Jun 30, 2027 · $35 today · $11.8K traded · $6K at stake · prices read 53 min ago

The odds

97%Jean-Luc Mélenchon

Jean-Luc Mélenchon97%
Marine Le Pen97%
Nathalie Arthaud89%▲ 1
Édouard Philippe86%
Fabien Roussel79%▲ 1
Raphaël Glucksmann79%
Éric Zemmour79%
Jean Lassalle77%▲ 1
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan66%▲ 1
Bruno Retailleau52%▲ 1
Dominique de Villepin33%
Marine Tondelier26%

11 more

Gabriel Attal25%▲ 1
François Hollande24%▼ 1
François Ruffin20%▲ 2
François Asselineau16%▲ 1
Jordan Bardella8%
Bernard Cazeneuve8%▼ 1
Jérôme Guedj8%
Karim Bouamrane6%▲ 1
Gérald Darmanin6%▲ 1
Olivier Faure5%▼ 1
Clémentine Autain4%▲ 1

How the odds have moved

Jean-Luc Mélenchon: 97% on Oct 20, 97% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Jean-Luc Mélenchon	97%		95¢	99¢	$1.01	6.00
Marine Le Pen	97%		95¢	98¢	$1.02	60.00
Nathalie Arthaud	89%	▲ 1	86¢	92¢	$1.09	9.00
Édouard Philippe	86%		85¢	87¢	$1.15	639
Fabien Roussel	79%	▲ 1	76¢	82¢	$1.22	382
Raphaël Glucksmann	79%		76¢	81¢	$1.23	3.0K
Éric Zemmour	79%		76¢	81¢	$1.23	4.9K
Jean Lassalle	77%	▲ 1	73¢	81¢	$1.23
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan	66%	▲ 1	62¢	69¢	$1.45	194
Bruno Retailleau	52%	▲ 1	50¢	54¢	$1.85	3.1K
Dominique de Villepin	33%		31¢	35¢	$2.86	1.8K
Marine Tondelier	26%		23¢	28¢	$3.57	103
Gabriel Attal	25%	▲ 1	23¢	27¢	$3.70	5.4K
François Hollande	24%	▼ 1	21¢	49¢	$2.04	3.1K
François Ruffin	20%	▲ 2	16¢	23¢	$4.35	413
François Asselineau	16%	▲ 1	14¢	17¢	$5.88	338
Jordan Bardella	8%		5¢	10¢	$10.00	382
Bernard Cazeneuve	8%	▼ 1	7¢	8¢	$12.50	624
Jérôme Guedj	8%		5¢	10¢	$10.00	226
Karim Bouamrane	6%	▲ 1	3¢	9¢	$11.11	365
Gérald Darmanin	6%	▲ 1	2¢	10¢	$10.00
Olivier Faure	5%	▼ 1	4¢	5¢	$20.00	543
Clémentine Autain	4%	▲ 1	1¢	7¢	$14.29	1.00

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The same question on Polymarket

2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?Édouard PhilippeKalshi 86%Polymarket 80%6 pts apart

2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?

92%Jean-Luc Mélenchon

Jean-Luc Mélenchon92%▼ 1
Marine Le Pen92%▼ 1
Nathalie Arthaud86%▲ 1
Raphaël Glucksmann82%▼ 1

42 more

Fabien Roussel82%▲ 2
David Lisnard81%▼ 1
Édouard Philippe80%
Éric Zemmour75%▼ 4
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan69%
Bruno Retailleau55%▲ 1
Dominique de Villepin32%▼ 2
Marine Tondelier29%▲ 1
François Hollande23%▲ 1
François Ruffin22%▲ 3
Sarah Knafo21%▲ 6
Gabriel Attal20%▼ 1
Jordan Bardella13%▲ 1
François Asselineau11%▼ 1
Juan Branco11%▲ 5
Delphine Batho10%
Élisabeth Borne7%
Bernard Cazeneuve6%▲ 1
Michel Barnier6%
Yaël Braun-Pivet6%
Sébastien Lecornu6%
Xavier Bertrand6%▲ 3
Michel-Edouard Leclerc6%
Matthieu Pigasse6%
Teddy Riner5%▲ 1
Jean Castex5%
François Bayrou5%
Jean-Michel Fauvergue5%▼ 1
Carole Delga5%
Manuel Bompard5%
Karim Bouamrane5%
Philippe de Villiers5%
Bally Bagayoko5%▼ 1
Olivier Faure4%
Mathilde Panot4%
Jérôme Guedj4%
Manuel Valls4%
Valérie Pécresse4%
Gérald Darmanin4%
Clémentine Autain4%
Laurent Wauquiez3%
Ségolène Royal3%

Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.

The news: French Presidential, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Marine Le Pen

Search ›

Marine Le Pen begins ‘great battle for France’ with presidential campaign launchThe Irish Times · 7 h agoMarine Le Pen vowed to restore order to France and ensure the supremacy of French interests and law over international courts as she launched her campaign for the presidency as the favourite. Polls show support for the right-wing populist…
How French presidential hopefuls turn unrest into campaign ammo – RT reportsRT International · 40 h agoWhile right-wing firebrand and potential front runner Marine Le Pen blames collapsing state authority, her left-wing rival, Jean-Luc Melenchon, accuses the government of failing to hear the voice of the people. Nationwide protests began in…
More than 1,300 demo-goers arrested and 50 police hurt in violent French protests - as National Rally's Marine Le Pen to kick off presidential campaign with rally speechDaily Mail · 18 h agoPolice arrested 1,314 people in weekend protests across France, with 53 officers hurt in the clashes. The arrests occurred as violence broke out on the margins of mass demonstrations in major cities on Saturday over the high cost of…
'France must find greatness again': Far-right Marine Le Pen calls out Macron at campaign speechLBC · 20 h ago3pm - 6pm3pm to 6pm 3pm - 7pm3pm to 7pm The rally came just a day after over 400,000 people took part in nationwide protests which saw over 1,300 arrested French far-right candidate Marine Le Pen has called on her country to "find its…
Why Jean-Luc Mélenchon wants France to burn@spikedonline · 4 days agoThe post Why Jean-Luc Mélenchon wants France to burn appeared first on spiked. As France has descended into anarchy, enduring its most destructive and violent rioting in decades, most of the candidates to replace Emmanuel Macron as…
Marine Le Pen calls for 'renaissance for France' as National Rally leader kicks off presidential campaign - after more than 1,300 arrested and 50 police hurt in violent protests across countryfreerepublic.com · 10 h ago“Marine Le Pen has called for a 'renaissance for France' in her presidential campaign speech, the day after violent protest broke out once more across the country. Earlier today, the police announced 1,314 people had been arrested in…
Ukraine, PSG: Zabarnyi sends a strong message to Marine Le PenFrench Football Weekly · 3 days agoManu Tournoux is a passionate and knowledgeable football enthusiast with a special focus on French football. Born and raised in France, Manu discovered his love for the beautiful game at a young age and developed a deep understanding of…
Marine Le Pen Gains Support in French Presidential Poll After Weekend Riotsslguardian.org · 4 days agoThe far-right leader secures 34–38% in first-round polling for the 2027 election, although the survey cannot establish whether the unrest contributed to her rising support. Marine Le Pen has gained support in the first opinion poll on…
David McWilliams: France is likely heading towards ECB support and a Marine Le Pen presidencyThe Irish Times · 47 h agoProtesting is in the French DNA. These people gave the world the French Revolution- not the French Negotiation or the French Re-evaluation – which was the most consequential political upheaval of the past 300 years and it started in Paris…
Marine Le Pen The Only Presidential Candidate to See Support Rise in Wake of French RiotsBreitbart · 4 days agoThe wave of Islamo-leftist unrest in France has apparently redounded to the benefit of National Rally leader Marine Le Pen, who is the only presidential candidate to see their poll numbers climb after the outburst of violence last weekend…
Who is Marine Le Pen? Why are betting markets bullish on her winning 2027 French presidency amid unrest in Francemint · 4 days agoBetting markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket are bullish on Marine Le Pen's chances of winning the 2027 French presidential election. The prediction comes as massive nationwide protests over the cost of living woes continue to roil…
Will French unrest benefit Marine Le Pen’s presidential run?The Irish Times · 4 days agoSitting presidentially behind a huge desk, the French flag behind her, Marine Le Pen took the occasion of the unrest in France this weekend to make a grave address to the nation. “In six months, the French people will be able to choose…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onConseil constitutionnel

Trading closesJun 30, 2027 10:00 AM ET

Traded$11.8K (25,448 contracts)

Today$35

At stake$6K

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If Jean-Luc Mélenchon is officially certified, approved, or confirmed to appear on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election before Jun 30, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions