Brazil Presidential Election
>99%Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva>99%▲ 83
- Flávio Bolsonaro<1%▼ 84
Install
Next French presidential election: 2nd place (1st round) (Apr 18, 2027)
The odds
29%Jean-Luc Mélenchon
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon29%▲ 1
- Édouard Philippe20%
- David Lisnard13%▲ 1
- Marine Le Pen11%▼ 1
- Raphaël Glucksmann7%▼ 1
- Gabriel Attal4%▲ 1
- François Hollande3%
- Jordan Bardella3%
- Bruno Retailleau3%
- Dominique de Villepin1%
- Éric Zemmour1%
- François Ruffin1%
2 more
- Marine Tondelier1%
- Xavier Bertrand1%
How the odds have moved
Jean-Luc Mélenchon: 26% on Oct 20, 29% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 29% | ▲ 1 | 27¢ | 35¢ | $2.86 | 1.1K |
| Édouard Philippe | 20% | 17¢ | 25¢ | $4.00 | 708 | |
| David Lisnard | 13% | ▲ 1 | 10¢ | 18¢ | $5.56 | 4.5K |
| Marine Le Pen | 11% | ▼ 1 | 10¢ | 13¢ | $7.69 | 3.3K |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 7% | ▼ 1 | 4¢ | 11¢ | $9.09 | 3.2K |
| Gabriel Attal | 4% | ▲ 1 | 1¢ | 7¢ | $14.29 | 508 |
| François Hollande | 3% | 1¢ | 6¢ | $16.67 | 508 | |
| Jordan Bardella | 3% | 1¢ | 6¢ | $16.67 | 508 | |
| Bruno Retailleau | 3% | 1¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 | 508 | |
| Dominique de Villepin | 1% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 454 | |
| Éric Zemmour | 1% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 454 | |
| François Ruffin | 1% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 454 | |
| Marine Tondelier | 1% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 454 | |
| Xavier Bertrand | 1% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 454 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Édouard Philippe, David Lisnard
Search ›-
Why Jean-Luc Mélenchon wants France to burnThe post Why Jean-Luc Mélenchon wants France to burn appeared first on spiked. As France has descended into anarchy, enduring its most destructive and violent rioting in decades, most of the candidates to replace Emmanuel Macron as… -
French protests hand Melenchon election boostThe protests in France have handed Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the leader of the far Left, a boost in his presidential campaign. Polling conducted after the Oct 17 protests shows that Mr Mélenchon has pulled ahead of Édouard Philippe, an ally of… -
Who is Marine Le Pen? Why are betting markets bullish on her winning 2027 French presidency amid unrest in FranceBetting markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket are bullish on Marine Le Pen's chances of winning the 2027 French presidential election. The prediction comes as massive nationwide protests over the cost of living woes continue to roil… -
Recommended StoriesWithin a month, however, a cascade of disorder developed on a scale not seen in years. The rioting and destruction on the weekend of Oct. 17-18 by an alliance of immigrant-descended “New French” and the radical Left has not just shaken the… -
France unrest: 1,000 detained as cost-of-living protests explode into clashesParis [France], October 25 (ANI): Massive nationwide protests in France over the rising cost of living and underfunded public services turned violent, with nearly 1,000 people arrested and key urban centres hit by tear gas and clashes… -
Macron wants to ban protests in France, except union marchesFrench President Emmanuel Macron has said it is best for France to hold no demonstrations in the near future, and that rallies not organised by trade unions will be banned. He said this after meeting the heads of France’s intelligence… -
Video. Euronews on the ground as hundreds of thousands protest in ParisGo beyond the headlines with Euronews EU.XL — a deep dive into the EU’s key policies and decisions through videos, explainers, polls, and a chatbot answering your questions anytime and in your language Top News Stories Today Hundreds of… -
Angry lawyers and bewildered defendants: the fallout from fast-tracking French rioting casesPoliticians have called for ruthless sentencing, but lawyers blame the politicians for the poverty, and anger, behind their clients’ looting Awa, 18, stood in the dock in the tribunal de Paris, a small, mute and bewildered figure seeming… -
Message from the Editor: France on edgeThe French word “polycrise” was coined in the 1990s by the philosopher Edgar Morin and his co-author Anne Brigitte Kern to describe a set of overlapping crises, each of which makes the others worse. Translated into English as polycrisis… -
In France, hundreds of thousands of people took to the streets again to protest. The slogans were directed against both Macron and Le Pen.Thousands of people took to the streets in France on Saturday to protest the rising cost of living and cuts to public services. Clashes broke out in some cities. This was reported by BFMTV and France 24 citing French authorities. According… -
France protests escalate as police fire tear gasNationwide protests in France are gaining momentum on October 24. Demonstrations in Paris have remained peaceful so far, but the situation has escalated in other cities amid clashes with police, according to BFMTV. Despite trade union… -
Nearly 1,000 Arrested as Violent Protests Sweep France, Deepening Crisis for MacronNearly 1,000 people were arrested Saturday as massive demonstrations erupted into violence across France, presenting another challenge to President Emmanuel Macron during his final months in office. The demonstrations, initially organized…
Related markets
All around the world ›Brazil Presidential election winner?
>99%Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva>99%▲ 82
- Flávio Bolsonaro<1%▼ 82
Serbia Parliamentary Election Winner
99%Student List – Students Win
- Student List – Students Win99%▲ 71
- Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia<1%▼ 71
- Ivica Dačić – Factor of Stability!<1%
7 more
- Rasim Ljajić – Humane (SDP – CDP)<1%
- Alliance of Vojvodina Hungarians – Dr Bálint Pásztor<1%
- Usame Zukorlić Movement for Unification<1%
- Russian Party – Serbia in BRICS – Slobodan Nikolić<1%
- Authentic Right – Dr Miloš Jovanović<1%
- European Serbia – Marinika Tepić, Zdravko Ponoš<1%
- SDA of Sandžak – Guardians of Sandžak<1%
Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory
99%Lula da Silva <4%
- Lula da Silva <4%99%▲ 85
- Flávio Bolsonaro <4%<1%▼ 44
- Lula da Silva 4-8%<1%
5 more
- Flávio Bolsonaro 12%+<1%▼ 1
- Flávio Bolsonaro 8-12%<1%▼ 4
- Flávio Bolsonaro 4-8%<1%▼ 35
- Lula da Silva 8-12%<1%
- Lula da Silva 12%+<1%
Israeli Legislative Election Winner
69%Yashar
- Yashar69%▼ 2
- Likud30%▲ 2
- Together<1%
3 more
- Shas<1%
- The Democrats<1%
- Otzma Yehudit<1%
Next Prime Minister of Serbia?
22%Ilija Srdanović
- Ilija Srdanović22%▲ 13
- Vladan Đokić<1%
- Aleksandar Vučić<1%▼ 68
7 more
- Ivica Dačić<1%
- Ana Brnabić<1%
- Stefan Krkobabić<1%
- Miloš Vučević<1%
- Đuro Macut<1%
- Branimir Jovanović<1%
- Dragan Đilas<1%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 5 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions