Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
66%Democrats Sweep
- Democrats Sweep66%▼ 1
- R Senate, D House25%▲ 1
- Republicans Sweep7%▼ 1
2 more
- D Senate, R House1%
- Other<1%
Install
How many Florida votes will be cast early in person? (As of Nov 4, 2026)
The odds
3.30Mmedian
1.90M4.30M
Median 3.30MMiddle half 2.61M – 3.72M
How the odds have moved
Median: 3.37M on Oct 19, 3.30M now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 2.2 million | 90% | ▲ 1 | 85¢ | 94¢ | $1.06 | 900 |
| At least 2.5 million | 80% | ▲ 3 | 75¢ | 84¢ | $1.19 | 75.00 |
| At least 2.8 million | 67% | ▲ 2 | 63¢ | 71¢ | $1.41 | 339 |
| At least 3.1 million | 62% | ▲ 3 | 57¢ | 67¢ | $1.49 | 393 |
| At least 3.4 million | 44% | ▲ 2 | 39¢ | 49¢ | $2.04 | |
| At least 3.7 million | 26% | ▲ 1 | 21¢ | 31¢ | $3.23 | 400 |
| At least 4 million | 9% | ▲ 1 | 4¢ | 14¢ | $7.14 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Florida
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Checking out the first weekend of early voting in South FloridaCBS News Bay Area Morning Edition Weekend 6am WBZ This Morning 8am CBS News Chicago Saturday 8am CBS Colorado Mornings Weekend CBS News Los Angeles Weekend 6am CBS News Miami This Morning 9am WCCO News Saturday Morning 8am CBS News New… -
Jesse Watters: Love was in the air for Trump in FloridaFox News host Jesse Watters discusses President Donald Trump’s midterm blitz on ‘Jesse Watters Primetime.’ ... Jesse Watters: Love was in the air for Trump in Florida Fox News host Jesse Watters discusses President Donald Trump’s midterm… -
Unpacking early voting trends in North Carolina and FloridaCBS News is a trusted source for the latest in politics, U.S. and world news. The network is home to award-winning broadcasts CBS Mornings, CBS Evening News, 60 Minutes, CBS Sunday Morning, 48 Hours and Face the Nation. Early voting trends… -
Trump announces $275M nursing-home nurse initiative at Florida midterm rallyPresident Donald Trump on Friday announces an investment by his administration to hire at least 4,000 nurses for elder-care facilities nationwide, including in Florida, during a midterm rally in Fort Myers, Florida. The Nurses for Nursing… -
Dengue cases in Florida continued to climb after emergency declaredAbout a month after three Florida counties declared states of emergency over what officials described as a “wildly unusual” dengue outbreak, infections of the mosquito-borne disease have continued to climb. Since September, Florida’s total… -
Angie Nixon: Democrats are underinvesting in Florida because "they think that the state is racist"Florida Democratic Senate candidate Angie Nixon says she thinks donors aligned with her party have underinvested in the Sunshine State because they believe it is racist. Political strategists Mike Hahn and John McCarthy join with analysis… -
Trump continues to back Ramaswamy's attack ad, campaigns in Florida with midterms 11 days awayPresident Trump on Friday doubled down on his support for Ohio gubernatorial candidate Vivek Ramaswamy's attack ad against Amy Acton featuring Acton's estranged mother. Mr. Trump also headed to the Sunshine State to campaign for Florida… -
President Trump touts his administration's border security at midterm rally in FloridaPresident Donald Trump touts his border policies at a midterm campaign rally in Fort Myers, Fla. President Trump touts his administration's border security at midterm rally in Florida President Donald Trump touts his border policies at a… -
Florida Republican-turned-Democrat responds to Trump's attacks: 'We don't care about the insults any longer'President Trump is targeting the former Republican-turned-Democrat running for governor in Florida. Trump blasted David Jolly in a campaign rally, telling the crowd, "he was thrown out of the party like a dog." In an interview with Erin… -
WATCH LIVE: Trump delivers remarks at rally in Fort Myers, FloridaPresident Trump delivers remarks at a midterm campaign rally in Fort Myers, Florida. WATCH LIVE: Trump delivers remarks at rally in Fort Myers, Florida President Trump delivers remarks at a midterm campaign rally in Fort Myers, Florida. -
Tech giants target spending on Florida’s state-level electionsFlorida’s Legislature is likely to take up artificial intelligence and data center policy in the 2027 lawmaking session. Tech firms are donating to Democrats and Republican candidates alike, buying scores of mailers and ads on top of… -
Florida Issues Warrant for Raúl Castro—Who. Raúl Castro, 95, Cuba’s former leader, is charged in Florida with conspiracy to commit first-degree murder. —What. A state judge signed a no-bond arrest warrant over the 1996 shootdown of two civilian planes that killed four men…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.