Brazil Presidential Election
79%Flávio Bolsonaro
- Flávio Bolsonaro79%▼ 1
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva21%▲ 2
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Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party?
The odds
44%Before Jan 1, 2028
- Before Nov 3, 20262%
- Before Jan 1, 202710%
- Before Apr 1, 202720%
- Before Aug 1, 202733%▲ 2
- Before Jan 1, 202844%▼ 1
How the odds have moved
Before Nov 3, 2026: 2% on Oct 20, 2% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Nov 3, 2026 | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 20.7K | |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 10% | 9¢ | 10¢ | $10.00 | 14.1K | |
| Before Apr 1, 2027 | 20% | 18¢ | 21¢ | $4.76 | 12.9K | |
| Before Aug 1, 2027 | 33% | ▲ 2 | 31¢ | 35¢ | $2.86 | 10.2K |
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 44% | ▼ 1 | 42¢ | 45¢ | $2.22 | 13.9K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: John Fetterman
Search ›- Fundraising Update: Senator John Fetterman just disclosed $424.1K of new fundraisingSenator John Fetterman just disclosed $424.1K of fundraising in a Q3 FEC disclosure filed on October 15th, 2026. This is the 300th most from all Q3 reports we have seen from politicians so far this year. 99.6% came from individual donors…
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How John Fetterman spends his time comes under more scrutiny as he weighs future in the SenateWASHINGTON — Six days after I-95 collapsed in Northeast Philadelphia, U.S. Sen. John Fetterman grabbed a lectern emblazoned with the presidential seal and began what would be his last public remarks in Philadelphia for the next three… -
John Fetterman, Dave McCormick pull in $261,000 in first months of unusual bipartisan fundraising effortsThe donors two the Pennsylvania senators' joint committee included a former Republican candidate for governor among others. The unusual combined fundraising effort by U.S. Sens. John Fetterman and Dave McCormick hauled in just over… -
‘Moderate’ Elissa Slotkin pretends she’s a stickler for ‘defending democracy’ — but this is how the Bolshevik left play the gameElissa Slotkin was elected to the Senate in 2024 as a supposed “moderate.” But of course we know that, apart from Pennsylvania Sen. John Fetterman, that species of Democratic politician doesn’t exist in Congress anymore. Sure enough, it… -
Trump Hits 31% Approval As Democrats Open 12-Point Lead Ahead Of MidtermsWith the economy turning into a political headache, Trump heads towards the midterms with record-low approval and Democrats gaining ground in the polls. Trump's approval rating drops to 31%, its lowest level across both his presidential… -
If Dems Don’t Win Like James Carville Wants Them To Win, What’s The Point Of Winning At All?He’s even gone so far as to say that he would leave the Democratic Party if the DSA — and Twitch streamer Hasan Piker in particular — becomes a force within it. “I would be disappointed if it comes in at 225 House seats,” Carville said… - No Kings Rallies Were No Big DealTo get into the spirit of the event, some participants wore costumes, while others “played protest songs.” One attendee, Phil Blazich, led the small crowd in various chants, but he was bitterly disappointed. He said, “There should be a…
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John Fetterman votes with his party less frequently since Trump took office, rarely attends meetingsWASHINGTON — On the first full day on Capitol Hill last month after senators returned from an extended recess, John Fetterman did not show up for his first scheduled committee meeting. Like dozens of times before, it was not clear where… - ‘Backing Settler Terrorists Is Its Policy’: IDF Ignored Distress Calls Before Attack on European DiplomatsThe Israeli military reportedly ignored repeated distress calls before masked settlers attacked a group of European diplomats with metal bars during a visit to the illegally occupied West Bank this past weekend, sparking international…
- James Carville Says He’d Rather GOP Win House by 5 Seats Than Dems Win by 5: They’d Be ‘Hostage to DSA’Veteran Democratic strategist James Carville said he would rather see Republicans keep control of the House by five seats than watch Democrats win the chamber by the same margin, warning that a “nightmare” razor-thin majority would leave…
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Sen. John Fetterman faces political risks as Trump pushes for party switch, analyst saysCBS News Sen. John Fetterman faces political risks as Trump pushes for party switch, analyst says Pennsylvania teachers union warns Project 2025 could cost state's schools $3 billion a year KDKA-TV Evening Forecast (10/12) Armed man shot…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 5 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.