What will Trump say during his rally in Georgia?
1%Kamala
- Kamala1%▼ 85
- Russia / Ukraine1%▼ 89
- Hyundai1%▼ 60
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What will Kevin Warsh say during his October press conference? (Oct 28, 2026)
The odds
94%Central Bank
- Central Bank94%
- Good Day94%▼ 1
- AI / Artificial Intelligence82%▲ 1
- Productivity81%
- Restrictive81%▲ 1
- Shock80%▼ 1
- Uncertainty80%▲ 2
- Independent / Independence68%▼ 1
- Balance Sheet64%▼ 2
- Inflation Expectation63%
- Geopolitical58%
- President57%▲ 1
35 more
- Oil56%▼ 1
- Credit53%
- Anchor / Anchored50%▲ 1
- Family Fight / Family Feud42%▲ 1
- Dollar41%
- Commodity41%
- Projection37%
- Unchanged31%▲ 1
- Pandemic30%▲ 1
- Gas / Gasoline / Natural Gas21%▼ 1
- Softening19%▼ 1
- Iran13%▲ 1
- Probability12%
- Risk Management12%
- Recession9%
- Good Afternoon9%
- Volatility9%▲ 1
- QT / Quantitative Tightening8%
- Dissent8%
- Diesel8%
- QE / Quantitative Easing7%
- Trump7%
- Tax6%▼ 1
- Shutdown / Shut Down6%▼ 1
- Stagflation5%
- Gold4%
- Consumer Confidence4%
- Egg4%▼ 1
- National Debt3%
- Renovation3%
- Crypto / Cryptocurrency3%▼ 1
- ADP2%
- Bitcoin2%▼ 1
- Japan / Japanese / Yen2%▼ 1
- Event does not qualify1%
How the odds have moved
Central Bank: 94% on Oct 20, 94% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Central Bank | 94% | 92¢ | 96¢ | $1.04 | 5.3K | |
| Good Day | 94% | ▼ 1 | 92¢ | 95¢ | $1.05 | 3.5K |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | 82% | ▲ 1 | 80¢ | 84¢ | $1.19 | 7.4K |
| Productivity | 81% | 80¢ | 82¢ | $1.22 | 6.4K | |
| Restrictive | 81% | ▲ 1 | 79¢ | 82¢ | $1.22 | 6.9K |
| Shock | 80% | ▼ 1 | 78¢ | 82¢ | $1.22 | 3.9K |
| Uncertainty | 80% | ▲ 2 | 79¢ | 80¢ | $1.25 | 4.2K |
| Independent / Independence | 68% | ▼ 1 | 65¢ | 70¢ | $1.43 | 129 |
| Balance Sheet | 64% | ▼ 2 | 62¢ | 66¢ | $1.52 | 942 |
| Inflation Expectation | 63% | 61¢ | 65¢ | $1.54 | 434 | |
| Geopolitical | 58% | 55¢ | 61¢ | $1.64 | 753 | |
| President | 57% | ▲ 1 | 55¢ | 59¢ | $1.69 | 593 |
| Oil | 56% | ▼ 1 | 54¢ | 59¢ | $1.69 | 527 |
| Credit | 53% | 51¢ | 55¢ | $1.82 | 11.9K | |
| Anchor / Anchored | 50% | ▲ 1 | 47¢ | 53¢ | $1.89 | 850 |
| Family Fight / Family Feud | 42% | ▲ 1 | 40¢ | 43¢ | $2.33 | 485 |
| Dollar | 41% | 38¢ | 44¢ | $2.27 | 853 | |
| Commodity | 41% | 38¢ | 43¢ | $2.33 | 514 | |
| Projection | 37% | 36¢ | 37¢ | $2.70 | 1.4K | |
| Unchanged | 31% | ▲ 1 | 28¢ | 33¢ | $3.03 | 1.6K |
| Pandemic | 30% | ▲ 1 | 27¢ | 33¢ | $3.03 | 194 |
| Gas / Gasoline / Natural Gas | 21% | ▼ 1 | 19¢ | 22¢ | $4.55 | 1.1K |
| Softening | 19% | ▼ 1 | 18¢ | 19¢ | $5.26 | 695 |
| Iran | 13% | ▲ 1 | 11¢ | 14¢ | $7.14 | 762 |
| Probability | 12% | 11¢ | 13¢ | $7.69 | 300 | |
| Risk Management | 12% | 11¢ | 13¢ | $7.69 | 224 | |
| Recession | 9% | 7¢ | 11¢ | $9.09 | 261 | |
| Good Afternoon | 9% | 7¢ | 10¢ | $10.00 | 999 | |
| Volatility | 9% | ▲ 1 | 7¢ | 10¢ | $10.00 | 292 |
| QT / Quantitative Tightening | 8% | 6¢ | 10¢ | $10.00 | 77.00 | |
| Dissent | 8% | 6¢ | 10¢ | $10.00 | 462 | |
| Diesel | 8% | 4¢ | 11¢ | $9.09 | 755 | |
| QE / Quantitative Easing | 7% | 5¢ | 9¢ | $11.11 | 29.00 | |
| Trump | 7% | 6¢ | 7¢ | $14.29 | 4.5K | |
| Tax | 6% | ▼ 1 | 4¢ | 8¢ | $12.50 | 603 |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | 6% | ▼ 1 | 3¢ | 8¢ | $12.50 | 136 |
| Stagflation | 5% | 4¢ | 6¢ | $16.67 | 289 | |
| Gold | 4% | 3¢ | 4¢ | $25.00 | 906 | |
| Consumer Confidence | 4% | 2¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 | 876 | |
| Egg | 4% | ▼ 1 | 3¢ | 4¢ | $25.00 | 469 |
| National Debt | 3% | 1¢ | 4¢ | $25.00 | 1.1K | |
| Renovation | 3% | 2¢ | 3¢ | $33.33 | 1.7K | |
| Crypto / Cryptocurrency | 3% | ▼ 1 | 1¢ | 4¢ | $25.00 | 363 |
| ADP | 2% | 1¢ | 3¢ | $33.33 | 476 | |
| Bitcoin | 2% | ▼ 1 | 1¢ | 3¢ | $33.33 | 265 |
| Japan / Japanese / Yen | 2% | ▼ 1 | 1¢ | 3¢ | $33.33 | 324 |
| Event does not qualify | 1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 1.1K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Kevin Warsh, Central Bank, Good Day
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All politicians ›What will Trump say this week? (Before Oct 26, 2026)
100%Ranked Choice / Ranked-Choice
- Ranked Choice / Ranked-Choice100%▲ 89
- Bibi / Netanyahu47%▼ 18
- Stupid Question20%▲ 3
15 more
- Autopen / Auto Pen19%▼ 5
- TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome14%▼ 16
- Zohran / Mamdani10%▼ 7
- Tomahawk10%▼ 4
- Marijuana / Weed / Cannabis9%
- Antifa8%▲ 3
- Houthi6%▼ 12
- Zacharia4%▼ 4
- Golden Dome4%▼ 4
- Peace in the Middle East4%▼ 3
- Crypto / Bitcoin3%▼ 2
- Prediction Market / Predictive Market3%▲ 1
- UFO / UAP2%▼ 8
- Uranium2%▼ 3
- Make Iran Great Again2%▼ 1
What will Trump say during his rally in Michigan?
98%El-Sayed
- El-Sayed98%
- Save America Act97%▲ 2
- Communist / Communism97%
29 more
- Cheat / Cheater / Cheating97%▲ 3
- Dividend / Stimulus97%▲ 3
- Stock Market96%▲ 2
- Barack Hussein Obama96%▲ 7
- Sleepy Joe95%▲ 13
- Hottest94%▲ 2
- Canada / Canadian93%▲ 4
- Nuclear (3+ times)93%▲ 15
- Iran (5+ times)91%▲ 21
- America First91%▲ 26
- Made in America / American Made89%▲ 19
- Supreme Court89%▲ 8
- Auto Worker / Autoworker82%▲ 1
- Ford / General Motors / GM80%▼ 3
- Hormuz79%▲ 10
- Russia / Ukraine71%▼ 9
- Kamala69%▼ 12
- Gulf of America68%▲ 3
- Blockade49%▼ 13
- Israel / Israeli28%▼ 26
- Fraud (3+ times)28%▲ 5
- AI / Artificial Intelligence18%▼ 10
- Fentanyl13%▼ 9
- Drill Baby Drill12%▼ 10
- Deport / Deported / Deportation11%▼ 4
- Ceasefire5%▼ 3
- Peace in the Middle East2%
- Crypto / Bitcoin2%
- Event does not qualify1%▼ 3
What will Bernie say during his rally in Duluth?
100%AI / Artificial Intelligence
- AI / Artificial Intelligence100%▲ 7
- Billionaire (5+ times)100%▲ 25
- Oil / Gas / Gasoline100%▲ 19
18 more
- Housing / Rent100%▲ 14
- Iran / Iranian100%▲ 18
- Corrupt / Corruption100%▲ 18
- Trump (5+ times)100%▲ 27
- Israel / Netanyahu100%▲ 33
- Climate100%▲ 27
- Robot / Robotic / Robotics100%▲ 41
- China / Chinese100%▲ 61
- Immigrant / Immigration100%▲ 78
- Trillionaire100%▲ 54
- Social Security1%▼ 65
- Data Center1%▼ 56
- Midterm1%▼ 70
- Socialist / Socialism1%▼ 20
- Student Loan / Student Debt1%▼ 17
- Zohran / Mamdani1%▼ 17
- ChatGPT / OpenAI1%▼ 6
- Event does not qualify1%▼ 12
What will Trump say during his rally in Lubbock, Texas?
95%Save America Act
- Save America Act95%
- Cheat / Cheater / Cheating93%▲ 4
- Barack Hussein Obama89%▲ 1
32 more
- Sleepy Joe88%
- Nuclear (3+ times)87%▲ 6
- ICE86%▼ 2
- Supreme Court84%
- Sanctuary84%▲ 5
- Tariff (3+ times)83%▲ 2
- China / Chinese81%▼ 3
- Iran (5+ times)80%▲ 6
- France78%▲ 6
- Russia / Ukraine72%
- Gulf of America72%▼ 2
- America First72%▲ 11
- Kamala70%▼ 4
- Drill Baby Drill67%▼ 1
- Hormuz65%▲ 6
- Made in America / American Made64%▲ 1
- Electricity59%▲ 16
- Blockade54%▼ 5
- Data Center45%▲ 13
- Israel / Israeli35%▼ 3
- AI / Artificial Intelligence33%▲ 1
- Trump Account29%▼ 2
- Deport / Deported / Deportation28%▼ 10
- Social Security (5+ times)25%▼ 1
- Fraud (3+ times)22%▲ 3
- Windmill18%▼ 2
- Fentanyl14%▼ 7
- Ceasefire14%▲ 1
- Palestine / Palestinian8%▲ 1
- Event does not qualify4%
- Peace in the Middle East2%
- Crypto / Bitcoin2%
What nicknames will Trump say before 2027?
89%Marjorie Traitor Greene
- Marjorie Traitor Greene89%▲ 13
- Slopadopolous / Slopadopolus69%
- Crying Chuck / Cryin Chuck53%
10 more
- Piggy50%▼ 2
- Fat Slob35%▲ 10
- Low Energy24%▼ 1
- Crazy Nancy24%
- Crazy Bernie19%▼ 1
- Little Communist13%▼ 1
- Biden Crime Family13%▲ 2
- Rocket Man11%▼ 1
- Comrade Kamala9%▼ 2
- Fake Tapper4%▼ 14
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.