Brazil Presidential Election
80%Flávio Bolsonaro
- Flávio Bolsonaro80%▲ 4
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva20%▼ 4
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Nigel Farage announces departure as Reform UK leader? (Before Dec 2026)
The odds
11%Before Jan 1, 2027
- Before Jan 1, 202711%▼ 1
How the odds have moved
Before Jan 1, 2027: 12% on Oct 20, 11% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Sep 1, 2026 | 1% | $100.00 | 7.0K | |||
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 11% | ▼ 1 | 10¢ | 12¢ | $8.33 | 14.2K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Nigel Farage, Reform UK
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Reform UK fined for failing to declare it was publisher of campaigns materialParty given additional penalty by Electoral Commission for not paying original fine on time Reform UK has been fined more than £2,000 for failing to declare it was the publisher of campaign material seen by voters – including an additional… -
Nigel Farage's Reform UK reports ITV to police over undercover investigationReform UK has reported ITV to the police following an undercover investigation by the broadcaster. Reform's home affairs spokesman Zia Yusuf said the party would also launch a legal challenge against the multiple ITV journalists and the… -
Nigel Farage promises tax cut for Army, Navy and RAF reservists under Reform UK government to boost Britain's Armed ForcesNigel Farage has vowed that Armed Forces reservists would pay no tax on their service to Britain under a Reform UK government. The Reform leader said that Army, Navy and RAF reserves - who serve in their spare time - would not pay tax on… -
Reform UK fined over multiple electoral law breachesREFORM UK have been fined by the Electoral Commission after the party failed to declare it was the publisher of campaign material. Nigel Farage's party was given an additional penalty after it failed to pay the fine on time, according to… -
Former BBC journalist and documentary maker John Sweeney leads ‘trial’ of Nigel Farage at Stratford Girls Grammar SchoolThere was a talk with a difference at Stratford Girls’ Grammar School on Friday, as award winning journalist John Sweeney took Reform UK leader Nigel Farage ‘to trial’. In front of sixth form and some year 11 students in the school… -
Dan Jukes reveals Nigel Farage did not take press office line on £5m gift - videoUndercover footage seen by the Guardian shows a close aide to Nigel Farage admitting the Reform leader did not follow the party's press office advice when he said his £5m gift from the crypto-billionaire Christopher Harborne was a thankyou… -
Reform UK MSP quits as Labour becomes second biggest party in blow to Nigel FarageReform UK remains larger than the Tories, Greens and Liberal Democrats north of the border WATCH NOW: Malcolm Offord discusses his shock defection from the Tories A Reform UK MSP has resigned the party's whip in the Scottish Parliament in… -
Who Is Hossein Ghandehari? What We Know About His Iran Business Ties and Reform UK SupportThe business benefactor to Nigel Farage and Reform UK had once been associated with a prominent religious institution in Iran controlled by the supreme leader of the country, a new report has revealed. The disclosures have thrown doubts on… -
Nigel Farage’s humiliating schoolboy error was already good but Nadine Dorries’ attempt to cover for him made it even betterPolitics Nadine Dorries nigel farage Reform UK John Plunkett. Updated October 21st, 2026 Spare a thought – only kidding – for Nigel Farage, who rolled up to do his thing in Plymouth only to suffer a most unfortunate moment of confusion… -
Nigel Farage is down but not out - and Reform's cracks are beginning to showKatherine Forster writes about the ups and downs of Reform UK after speaking to Nigel Farage in Plymouth Nigel Farage reacts to Kemi Badenoch's Chagos comments “We’ll be back,” Nigel Farage defiantly declared today as he acknowledged that… -
Nigel Farage booed by Reform supporters after major gaffeNigel Farage was booed by his own party members after dropping a clanger during a speech. On Tuesday, the Reform UK was speaking at an event in Plymouth as part of his 100 Days to Save Britain’ tour. During his speech, Farage mentioned… - Who Is Hossein Ghandehari? Reform UK’s Billionaire Donor and His Iran LinksA wealthy donor to Nigel Farage and Reform UK was once a business partner of a powerful religious foundation in Iran, according to a new report. The foundation answers to the country’s supreme leader, which raises questions about the…
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