Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/26 - 11/1)
189.1median
140230
Median 189.1Middle half 174.1 – 201.4
Install
Will the United Kingdom join the EU?
The odds
12%By Jan 1, 2040
- By Jan 1, 20325%
- By Jan 1, 20357%
- By Jan 1, 204012%▼ 1
How the odds have moved
By Jan 1, 2032: 5% on Oct 19, 5% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| By Jan 1, 2032 | 5% | 2¢ | 7¢ | $14.29 | 746 | |
| By Jan 1, 2035 | 7% | 3¢ | 10¢ | $10.00 | 125 | |
| By Jan 1, 2040 | 12% | ▼ 1 | 8¢ | 16¢ | $6.25 | 200 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: United Kingdom, EU Accession
Search ›-
Advancing Ukraine's EU Accession MomentumUkraine's EU accession process has entered a decisive phase. After a prolonged blockage at Council level, negotiations on the Fundamentals cluster formally opened on 15 June 2026, followed by the External Relations cluster on 14 July. In… -
Royal Purple United Kingdom Crown Ears at Walt Disney WorldThe United Kingdom pavilion in EPCOT has a new royal purple ear headband featuring a crown on top. The ears and exterior band are made of a textured sparkly purple fabric. The same purple fabric creates the cap of the crown. The crown… -
PM Orbán’s surprising decision about Ukraine’s EU accession explainedHungary did not take part in the vote on starting Ukraine’s EU accession process, the prime minister’s policy director said in Brussels on Thursday, since it did not consider the country to be ready to start talks. “Hungary’s position is… -
Joint Statement by the Foreign Ministers of Australia, Canada, France, and the United Kingdom on the Postponement of Palestinian ElectionsSenator the Hon Penny Wong We, the Foreign Ministers of Australia, Canada, France and the United Kingdom deeply regret the Palestinian President's decision to postpone the Palestinian Legislative Council elections as well as the… -
Kiev expects difficulties in EU accession talks in 2027 due to elections in EuropeUkraine is looking to a European Council meeting in mid-December "as an ideal date" to make that decision, Deputy Prime Minister for EU Integration Vsevolod Chentsov said - Russian Politics & Diplomacy Russian Politics & DiplomacyInto… -
OPCW Chief Visits United KingdomThe OPCW Director-General Sabrina Dallafior paid an official visit to the United Kingdom from 19 to 20 October 2026. During the visit, she delivered a keynote address at the Chemical Weapons Demilitarisation (CWD) Conference, lectured at… -
Germany's Merz pledges support for EU accession of West Balkan statesGerman Chancellor Friedrich Merz on Thursday called for the Western Balkan states to be granted quick accession to the European Union. "Your accession to the EU is what we want," Merz said at the start of a summit with the leaders of… - Hungary blocks Moldova, Ukraine EU accession negotiations - reportHungary has blocked the opening of the final two EU accession negotiation clusters with Moldova and Ukraine after previously agreeing to advance negotiations on two other clusters earlier this month, Ukrainian media reported. China's…
-
United Kingdom Retail Sales falls 0.4% MoM in September vs. -0.1% estimatesRetail Sales, a key measure of consumer spending, in the United Kingdom (UK) fell by 0.4% month-over-month (MoM) in September after rising by 0.7% in August (revised from 0.5%), the latest data published by the Office for National… -
Montenegro EU Accession: “Without Croatian Consent There is No Progress”Technical translator and editor living in Zagreb. Freelance translator of Croatian to British English, editor, post-editor and proofreader for various types of text, from news and media to long form articles, technical publications… -
Oman and United Kingdom reaffirm commitment to cooperation and economic prosperityMuscat: The United Kingdom and the Sultanate of Oman commit to strengthen and deepen our relationship, monitor progress against agreed priorities, and ensure that cooperation remains focused on mutual benefit, Oman’s Vision 2040, the UK’s… -
Merz: Montenegro has almost completed EU accession negotiationsBUDVA – In his opening address to the Berlin Process Leaders’ Summit in Miločer, near Budva, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said that Montenegro had made significant progress on its European path and that membership in the European Union…
Related markets
All world leaders ›Traffic through the Suez Canal? (10/26 - 11/1)
293.4median
250340
Median 293.4Middle half 280.8 – 308.3
Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/19 - 10/25)
185.8median
140230
Median 185.8Middle half 176.0 – 197.5
Traffic through the Panama Canal? (10/19 - 10/25)
197.8median
160230
Median 197.8Middle half 189.8 – 203.2
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
Feb 27, 2028even chance by
- Before Nov 1, 20262%
- Before Dec 1, 20265%
- Before Jan 1, 20278%
14 more
- Before Feb 1, 20279%▼ 1
- Before Mar 1, 202714%▼ 2
- Before Apr 1, 202718%
- Before May 1, 202719%▼ 2
- Before Jun 1, 202725%
- Before Jul 1, 202731%
- Before Aug 1, 202733%
- Before Sep 1, 202734%▼ 1
- Before Oct 1, 202737%
- Before Nov 1, 202741%
- Before Dec 1, 202741%
- Before Jan 1, 202848%▼ 1
- Before Jul 1, 202856%
- Before Jan 1, 202960%
Will France declare a state of emergency? (Before Jan 1, 2027)
21%Before Jan 1, 2027
- Before Nov 1, 20268%▼ 4
- Before Jan 1, 202721%▲ 2
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.