DeepSeek market share this week (DeepSeek market share - Oct 19, 2026)
26.36%median
21.6%29%
Median 26.36%Middle half 25.41% – 27.32%
Install
Which AI company will have the best coding model at the end of 2026?
The odds
77%Anthropic
- Anthropic77%▲ 6
- OpenAI15%
- Google3%▼ 4
- xAI1%
- DeepSeek1%▲ 1
- Alibaba1%
- Baidu1%
- Z.ai1%
- Moonshot AI1%
How the odds have moved
Anthropic: 73% on Oct 20, 77% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthropic | 77% | ▲ 6 | 76¢ | 79¢ | $1.27 | 273.1K |
| OpenAI | 15% | 14¢ | 16¢ | $6.25 | 216.6K | |
| 3% | ▼ 4 | 1¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 | 205.2K | |
| xAI | 1% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 179.3K | |
| DeepSeek | 1% | ▲ 1 | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 93.0K |
| Alibaba | 1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 52.2K | ||
| Baidu | 1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 16.3K | ||
| Z.ai | 1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 68.8K | ||
| Moonshot AI | 1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 81.0K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news
No recent headlines name this market's subject.
Related markets
All ai ›Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
$2.15Thigh with an even chance
Traders see an even chance of trading as high as $2.15T.
- Reaches $1.5T88%
- Reaches $1.75T70%
- Falls to $800B4%
- Falls to $700B4%
Already reached: ↑$1.25T, ↑$1.1T, ↑$1.0T
Which company has the best AI model end of October?
79%Google
- Google79%▲ 8
- Anthropic19%▼ 8
- Meta1%
18 more
- OpenAI1%
- Alibaba<1%
- Moonshot<1%
- Baidu<1%
- Z.ai<1%
- Xiaomi<1%
- SpaceXAI<1%
- DeepSeek<1%
- Amazon<1%
- ByteDance<1%
- Nvidia<1%
- Thinky<1%
- MiniMax<1%
- Mistral<1%
- Meituan<1%
- Tencent<1%
- StepFun<1%
- Microsoft<1%
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...?
Oct 28, 2026even chance by
- October 216%▼ 16
- October 2214%▼ 23
- October 2426%▼ 20
2 more
- October 3180%▲ 7
- December 3197%▼ 1
Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
53%Anthropic
- Anthropic53%▲ 3
- Google37%▼ 3
- OpenAI5%▼ 1
12 more
- xAI1%
- Meta1%
- Alibaba<1%
- DeepSeek<1%
- Moonshot<1%
- Z.ai<1%
- Mistral<1%
- Microsoft<1%
- Amazon<1%
- ByteDance<1%
- Meituan<1%
- Baidu<1%
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on...?
20%No release by October 31
- No release by October 3120%▼ 6
- October 2716%▲ 4
- October 2215%▼ 1
11 more
- October 299%▲ 5
- October 217%▲ 4
- October 315%▲ 5
- October 264%▲ 3
- October 284%▲ 2
- October 233%▲ 1
- October 303%▲ 2
- October 251%▲ 1
- October 201%▼ 20
- October 24<1%▼ 4
- October 19<1%▼ 2
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.