Texas Senate winner? (2026)
65%James Talarico
- James Talarico65%
- Ken Paxton36%
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Closer Senate Race: Montana or New Jersey? (Nov 3, 2026)
The odds
79%Montana US Senate
- Montana US Senate79%▼ 4
- New Jersey US Senate20%▲ 3
How the odds have moved
Montana US Senate: 82% on Oct 19, 79% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montana US Senate | 79% | ▼ 4 | 75¢ | 82¢ | $1.22 | 972 |
| New Jersey US Senate | 20% | ▲ 3 | 15¢ | 25¢ | $4.00 | 200 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Closer Senate, New Jersey, Montana
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Early voting begins in New Jersey for 2026 midterm electionsCBS News Philadelphia is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as KYW-TV and channel 3, CBS News Philadelphia offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. Early… -
Tom Kean had everything going for him. Then the Republican New Jersey congressman disappearedEven with a multimillion-dollar war chest, the US representative faces a stiff fight for his seat from Democrat Rebecca Bennett The stars above New Jersey seemed aligned for Tom Kean Jr. The Republican congressman had a war chest of more… -
Voters in Burlington County, New Jersey demand changes after waiting for hours at polling sitesNovember 6, 2024 / 6:56 PM EST / CBS Philadelphia Burlington County leaders called the experience of voters Tuesday, who waited hours in long lines at the polls, "unacceptable" and vowed a "top-to-bottom" review of election procedures to… -
How and when to vote early in New York and New Jersey for the 2026 general electionOctober 23, 2026 / 2:51 PM EDT / CBS New York Early voting gets underway Saturday in New York and New Jersey Polling sites will be open around New York City starting at 9 a.m. Saturday. The early voting period will continue through Sunday… -
'I basically snapped': New Jersey mayor charges at resident during chaotic council meetingVideo captures Pemberton Township Mayor Matthew Bianchini rushing toward a resident during a heated council meeting before being restrained by others in attendance (Credit: Ryan Elmore/Pine Barrens Tribune via Storyful). A New Jersey… -
New video shows New Jersey mayor charging at resident during heated council meetingFox News New video shows New Jersey mayor charging at resident during heated council meeting Video released by Pemberton Township shows Mayor Matthew Bianchini rushing toward a resident during a tense council meeting before being… -
Anger over rising prices could be decisive in Alaska’s unusually close Senate raceVoters in Alaska told NBC News that the skyrocketing cost of living is the main issue driving anger at Trump and GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan, who faces a tight re-election race. ANCHORAGE, Alaska — As voters in the Last Frontier prepare to… -
Pemberton, New Jersey mayor charges at someone during heated council meetingCBS News Philadelphia is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as KYW-TV and channel 3, CBS News Philadelphia offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. Pemberton… -
House Republicans subpoena New Jersey for noncitizen voter recordsMikie Sherrill’s administration has only produced 12 documents in three months, the subpoena alleges. House Judiciary Chair Jim Jordan and three of his fellow Republicans have issued a subpoena for records on how thousands of noncitizens… - Montana US Senate candidates share debate stageSome attacks were made, but candidates sought to sell their policy positions across range of topics Seth Bodnar, Kurt Alme, Alania Bankhead, and Kyle Austin attend a debate for U.S. Senate candidates in Bozeman on Oct. 11, 2026. All four…
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New Jersey politicians getting hot and botheredWhen Matthew Bianchini, the mayor of Pemberton Township in South Jersey, made headlines for charging after and yelling at an audience member and at a Oct. 21 meeting, it was not the first time a public meeting got out of hand in New… -
Early voting opens in New York and New JerseyNEW YORK (WABC) -- Early voting began Saturday in New York and New Jersey as voters began casting ballots in key races across the region. The candidates for New York governor spent Friday making their cases to voters ahead of the start of…
Related markets
All senate ›Texas Senate Election Winner
65%James Talarico (D)
- James Talarico (D)65%▲ 1
- Ken Paxton (R)36%▼ 1
Which party will win the Senate in 2026?
65%Democratic Party
- Democratic Party65%▼ 2
- Republican Party36%▲ 2
2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
63%Democrats sweep
- Democrats sweep63%▼ 1
- D-House, R-Senate26%▲ 1
- Republicans sweep10%▲ 1
1 more
- R-House, D-Senate1%
Michigan Senate winner? (2026)
66%Abdul El-Sayed
- Abdul El-Sayed66%▼ 2
- Mike Rogers34%▲ 3
Minnesota Senate winner? (2026)
84%Peggy Flanagan
- Peggy Flanagan84%▲ 1
- Michele Tafoya16%▼ 1
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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions